ATL: MARIA - Models

[RL3AO]

Another view of the 12Z GFS Ensembles track. Talk about some uncertainty after about day 4-5...:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/s843d4eu1/15_L_gefs_12z.pngg]

When I see an ensemble spread like that, it makes me think that I should avoid using the words "will" and "won't" in a forecast with this storm.

[sma10]

To say there is a bit of model spread in the later time periods is an understatement. We definitely have what you could call good old fashioned "bust potential" here

[Alyono]

I honestly wonder what the mets at Nhc think about these fujiwara runs

"I'm glad we aren't forecasting out to 7 days yet"

the private sector is though

[northjaxpro]

Honestly, at this point I think beyond day 5 we can't predict anything. Everything is on the table.

I have been stressing this point since yesterday!!

[sma10]

Honestly, at this point I think beyond day 5 we can't predict anything. Everything is on the table.

I have been stressing this point since yesterday!!

Frankly I don't know if we can predict beyond day 3 at this point

[Hogweed]

The 12Z JMA does something very similar to the Euro too so Euro not alone with the idea.

So more than one model is very likely very wrong, awesome.

Have you seen the 12z CMC?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=240

[OntarioEggplant]

The worst thing about the 12Z Euro is that it still has José wandering around the North Atlantic after rotating around Maria in 10 days

[Nimbus]

Guadeloupe received significant damage with hurricane Marilyn and its going to be just a wobble away from the eyewall of Maria. There are hills that will provide shelter on the NW side.

[northjaxpro]

Honestly, at this point I think beyond day 5 we can't predict anything. Everything is on the table.

I have been stressing this point since yesterday!!

Frankly I don't know if we can predict beyond day 3 at this point

Yeah. Probably right.

[Stormcenter]

1899.....are you serious?

All else being equal, how likely is it EVER for a tropical system to transition to extra tropical and then back to tropical?

It's happened before. The 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane did it. That's just off the top of my head

So ... you're saying he has a chance.

[BYG Jacob]

The 12Z JMA does something very similar to the Euro too so Euro not alone with the idea.

So more than one model is very likely very wrong, awesome.

Have you seen the 12z CMC?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=240

Make that 3 so far.

[OntarioEggplant]

Looks like some EPS members want to pull José out to sea at 108 hrs

[ronjon]

Jose soon to be naked swirl on SAT - so models that intensify it are shall we say...inaccurate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

[floridasun78]

today when i got my internet back in days since sat sep 9 i been looking at this from my friend home have internet i see modles are east of Bahamas put i looking latest talk models want start stiffing more left that right because their dont have jose right in models

[stormreader]

Another view of the 12Z GFS Ensembles track. Talk about some uncertainty after about day 4-5...:

Becoming "interesting". That kind of spread opens the door for possible big changes in final track forecast (obviously). With Jose diminishing in strength, and the growing emsemble spread, it would seem reasonable to now really begin to consider a seriously more west type of track. Its been hinted at by a couple of you guys already, but although not there yet, model-wise, seems like percentages are beginning to increase in that direction.

[BYG Jacob]

Jose soon to be naked swirl on SAT - so models that intensify it are shall we say...inaccurate.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

A tropical cyclone unable to strengthen in the face of heavy shear and cold water? A SHOCKING TURN OF EVENTS!

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is less threatening to the SE US than is the 0Z EPS and is pretty consistent with the 12Z Euro operational. There are only a few SE US hits with none in FL/GA/Gulf, just one in SC and perhaps a couple in NC.

[Voltron]

The 12Z EPS is less threatening to the SE US than is the 0Z EPS and is pretty consistent with the 12Z Euro operational. There are only a few SE US hits with none in FL/GA/Gulf, just one in SC and perhaps a couple in NC.

This is not taking into account the destruction of Jose as the models probably need 24 hrs to catch up

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is less threatening to the SE US than is the 0Z EPS and is pretty consistent with the 12Z Euro operational. There are only a few SE US hits with none in FL/GA/Gulf, just one in SC and perhaps a couple in NC.

This is not taking into account the destruction of Jose as the models probably need 24 hrs to catch up

I understand that. I'm just telling folks what the model shows. Take the output for what it is worth. But it is the EPS, not some rinky dink model for the tropics like the NAVGEM or NAM. So, it deserves some respect at least even though it may very well be quite misinformed about Jose's strength.

[floridasun78]

so fl can breather that maria not issue but north Carolina could be issue north of their what some of you saying?