ATL: MARIA - Models

[otowntiger]

Another view of the 12Z GFS Ensembles track. Talk about some uncertainty after about day 4-5...:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/s843d4eu1/15_L_gefs_12z.pngg]

When I see an ensemble spread like that, it makes me think that I should avoid using the words "will" and "won't" in a forecast with this storm.

With what's going on with Jose and how the models may be out to lunch with how they are handling Jose's forecasted path and intensity and knowing how much influence that all has on Maria's future track, is it still pretty safe to presume that the NHC's 5 day path is pretty solid now, or is the confidence they have in the 5 day cone/path and other Mets lower than normal? Because it seems to me that the issue with Jose will affect Maria's track up north of the 5 day limit and that between now and then he path is pretty set? In other words is the north bend still pretty solid before getting to the Bahamas?

[gatorcane]

FIM-8 which I believe is based off the GFS has shifted west. Notice how far east Jose is...

[OntarioEggplant]

FIM-8 which I believe is based off the GFS has shifted west. Notice how far east Jose is...

Interesting. Look how much further east and weaker José is... Allows the Ridge to build in and Maria curves more to the left

['CaneFreak]

Now this I can believe. This looks very realistic. Thank you for posting!

FIM-8 which I believe is based off the GFS has shifted west. Notice how far east Jose is...

[SouthDadeFish]

To be fair, the FIM is not a very good or reliable model... I wouldn't put too much weight on any of its forecasts.

[blp]

I don't like this trend. Especially from the GFS that usually has a bias toward recurve. Looks to be swinging the other way.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah but it does show what could happen if Jose were east

To be fair, the FIM is not a very good or reliable model... I wouldn't put too much weight on any of its forecasts.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't like this trend. Especially from the GFS that usually has a bias toward recurve. Looks to be swinging the other way.

That bias is generally when storms are in the MDR...not as much when they leave it
I think you will see all the models begin to correct west

[boca]

So South Florida is not out of the woods with Maria?

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM model is in the west camp also:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

So South Florida is not out of the woods with Maria?

This time when Irma was where Maria was they have it going to georgia/south carolina. The storm is just too far away. nobody knows where it is going somewhere in the cone is a good bet but the cone is crap this far out, it will shift.

[Fishing]

so fl can breather that maria not issue but north Carolina could be issue north of their what some of you saying?

Glad you are alright! Many were asking of you after Irma. Seeing as you just today had access to internet, I'll just say for me personally following this board along with a couple of private weather mets. The general consensus is nothing can be trusted beyond the NHC cone at this point as Jose is trying to decide whether he wants to dance with Maria or not.
I'm sure one of the professionals or more knowledgeable on here can say more but I wanted to say WELCOME BACK!

[gtalum]

So South Florida is not out of the woods with Maria?

This time when Irma was where Maria was they have it going to georgia/south carolina. The storm is just too far away. nobody knows where it is going somewhere in the cone is a good bet but the cone is crap this far out, it will shift.

By 6 days out (Monday September 4) the Euro and GFS were doing the "windshield wiper" between Florida's east coast and Florida's West coast. UKMet had it more or less nailed.

By no means is Florida out of the woods, but to me it seems the most likely CONUS landfall is in the Carolinas.

[kunosoura]

so fl can breather that maria not issue but north Carolina could be issue north of their what some of you saying?

Sorry this is OT, but just wanted to say that we're glad to see you're back! Had a lot of people wondering how you made out with Irma.

[sma10]

Another view of the 12Z GFS Ensembles track. Talk about some uncertainty after about day 4-5...:

[img]https://s26.postimg.org/s843d4eu1/15_L_gefs_12z.pngg]

When I see an ensemble spread like that, it makes me think that I should avoid using the words "will" and "won't" in a forecast with this storm.

With what's going on with Jose and how the models may be out to lunch with how they are handling Jose's forecasted path and intensity and knowing how much influence that all has on Maria's future track, is it still pretty safe to presume that the NHC's 5 day path is pretty solid now, or is the confidence they have in the 5 day cone/path and other Mets lower than normal? Because it seems to me that the issue with Jose will affect Maria's track up north of the 5 day limit and that between now and then he path is pretty set? In other words is the north bend still pretty solid before getting to the Bahamas?

Keep in mind that the Nhc "cone" isn't even necessarily a sure thing. I was surprised to find that the Nhc only expects a system to be within the borders of the cone at 5 days like only 70% of the time.

[boca]

I feel better here in South Florida that the NHC has Maria staying well east of us and that they are still seeing the weakness in the high to the north as of the 5pm update.

[Blinhart]

I feel better here in South Florida that the NHC has Maria staying well east of us and that they are still seeing the weakness in the high to the north as of the 5pm update.

From what I'm reading is that there is still a very good chance that Florida can get into the cone. It took Irma over 5 days to go from where Maria is to the Keys, so anything is still in play.

[YoshiMike]

I was about to ask if there is a possible threat for a new England hit, so I could prepare, but it's just way too soon to even think of that. Haha guess I'm just worried after the possible threat from both Irma and jose.

[Aric Dunn]

So the chart below is just the first ( though tedious) and just for the current 12z HWRF. I have been keeping track of how the 10m winds from ( at least the HWRF) each run compare to the 850mb and what recon finds.

The intial result is that ( and I have mentioned it multiple times) as the system reaches hurricane strength the 10m wind become increasingly less reliable the stronger the system becomes.

As the system intensifies the ability to mix down the 850 mb winds becomes more likely rather doing a standard reduction.

what this will show as I input more data is that recon will match more with 850 mb than the 10m winds.

So in the future with systems that the HWRF shows deepening in the model run, it would be more prudent to switch to the 850mb winds vs, using the 10m winds.

AAnnd, of course, there are multiple other variables. But in general, it has worked better for me to accurately use the HWRF data.


This is a very preliminary chart just sort of threw it together and I will try to keep the data up to date.

I picked the current 12z HWRF run and went back to 48 hours.

Also I had to pick max FL winds as well as dropsonde data through the column at times closest to those for advisories and steps of the HWRF. So there is a slight time difference of up to an hour between some of the data. eventually I will work that down to less of a time difference.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont know if any of you have noticed...but the SFWMD model plots for the first time have the ECMWF and the ECMWF Ensemble tracks added to it! I cant believe it. This is overdue in my opinion. The more of the better models we can add to this the better. The Euro is the orange line.


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