ATL: MARIA - Models

[gatorcane]

I didn't notice that. It's about time the ECMWF is on that plot

[Evil Jeremy]

Holy moly, and that's probably my first time ever using the phrase. The SFWMD model plots have been one of my absolute favorite and most valuable tropical resources dating back to the 04/05 hurricanes, and to see them finally add ECMWF and complete the primary model suite is a cause for celebration.

[tolakram]

18z GFS still with the significant short term NE movement.

[floridasun78]

So South Florida is not out of the woods with Maria?

Craig Setzer say we need keep eye on it because jose could pull out fastest pull it maria west this storm could move west

[tolakram]

Guadeloupe needs to keep a very close eye on this!

[Aric Dunn]

and the GFS intensifies JOSE 10 mb.... lol

[RL3AO]

I dont know if any of you have noticed...but the SFWMD model plots for the first time have the ECMWF and the ECMWF Ensemble tracks added to it! I cant believe it. This is overdue in my opinion. The more of the better models we can add to this the better. The Euro is the orange line.


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Very nice. Now if they could just remove the TABs and CLPR...

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is already east of the 12Z. Might it miss Puerto Rico to the east?

[tolakram]

and the GFS intensifies JOSE 10 mb.... lol

It may be foolish to discount both the big models and their solutions. I know, I'm right there with you, but for both to fail like this. Unlikely. Jose is already looking like shear is lessening, we shall see.

[RL3AO]

18Z GFS is already east of the 12Z. Might it miss Puerto Rico to the east?

It could, but it probably wouldn't be by more than 20 or 30 miles if it does.

[Aric Dunn]

and the GFS intensifies JOSE 10 mb.... lol

It may be foolish to discount both the big models and their solutions. I know, I'm right there with you, but for both to fail like this. Unlikely. Jose is already looking like shear is lessening, we shall see.

I agree.. well we shall see. its really the water temps coming up in about 24 hours thats the issues.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

One thing I notice is the GFS has this over southern Guadeloupe after six hours. I don't see that happening. So it's already starting out too far north and east.

[BYG Jacob]

One thing I notice is the GFS has this over southern Guadeloupe after six hours. I don't see that happening. So it's already starting out too far north and east.

Also has Jose significantly intensifying, which isn't gonna happen.

[sma10]

and the GFS intensifies JOSE 10 mb.... lol

It may be foolish to discount both the big models and their solutions. I know, I'm right there with you, but for both to fail like this. Unlikely. Jose is already looking like shear is lessening, we shall see.

I agree.. well we shall see. its really the water temps coming up in about 24 hours thats the issues.

I hear you. But even the Nhc doesn't buy it - they're certainly not calling for 25mb strengthening by tomorrow night

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

Looks like even less ridging on the 18Z GFS at 72 hours than 12Z. It is hard to discount the GFS and ECMWF as far as how they are intensifying Jose no matter what Jose might look like right now.

[tolakram]

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