ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
At what time the plane is sheduled to investigate MARIA? Thanks.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Ryxn wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Alyono wrote:
Andrew in 1992 made 2 cat 5 landfalls
Irma made multiple Cat 5 landfalls, IIRC: Barbuda, St. Maarten, Ginger Islands and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, and then finally Cuba.
Thanks, it's funny, I knew about the island landfalls, and was initially thinking purely the number of separate Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall(s) at Cat 5 intensity (so soon to be 2 in 2017's case) but then got ahead of myself talking about Maria possibly making a Cat 5 PR landfall so I switched to talking about number of Cat 5 landfalls. Didn't notice that drift haha.
Also, what's the record for fastest intensification from Category 1 to 5 or shortest time to have a 100 mph wind increase? Was it Wilma? Could Irma beat the record?
I can't say concrete numbers, but I know Matthew and Felix both intensified to Cat 5 in ridiculously short order.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:ronyan wrote:Landfall for Dominica should be around 9 PM CDT so recon should have enough time.
Waouw, how do you calculate that? And for Guadeloupe? Any idea?
Based on the position update Maria is 35 miles ESE of Dominica moving WNW @ 9 mph. Roughly 4 hours assuming constant speed. I don't think Guadeloupe will see direct landfall but should that happen it would be a little after that.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Ryxn wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Irma made multiple Cat 5 landfalls, IIRC: Barbuda, St. Maarten, Ginger Islands and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, and then finally Cuba.
Thanks, it's funny, I knew about the island landfalls, and was initially thinking purely the number of separate Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall(s) at Cat 5 intensity (so soon to be 2 in 2017's case) but then got ahead of myself talking about Maria possibly making a Cat 5 PR landfall so I switched to talking about number of Cat 5 landfalls. Didn't notice that drift haha.
Also, what's the record for fastest intensification from Category 1 to 5 or shortest time to have a 100 mph wind increase? Was it Wilma? Could Irma beat the record?
I can't say concrete numbers, but I know Matthew and Felix both intensified to Cat 5 in ridiculously short order.
Wilma '05, Genevieve '14, and Patricia '15 also need to be mentioned. There are also a number of WPac cases.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Wilma holds the record for fastest intensification to category 5 in the Atlantic, Patricia edged out Forrest overall for the world.
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- Cunxi Huang
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
00Z dvorak estimates could be T7.0/7.0 cuz average dt during 21z-00z would be 7.0 (break the constraints which is +1.0 in 6hrs when T# >=4.0) if Maria continues to keep W ring + WMG eye.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Think the recon will make it to the storm before landfall, but it's going to be very close.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
can that ull in caribiean have any affect on maria thanks
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm really hoping recon doesn't do a NW/SE pass first, but it looks like that may be what they're going for.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Yesterdays forecast for Maria. pretty close on the position, not so much on intensity.
Not Bashing NHC
INIT 17/2100Z 13.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
Not Bashing NHC
INIT 17/2100Z 13.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
joey wrote:can that ull in caribiean have any affect on maria thanks
Appears to be moving west at around the same speed as Maria (who will also move north and away from it) so it shouldn't have any significant effects on Maria's performance.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Based on radar data, I wonder if it's doing that eyewall melding thing.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Will there not be any upgrade in intensity prior to the plane getting there, regardless of satellite presentation or other diagnostic assessments?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Gustywind wrote:At what time the plane is sheduled to investigate MARIA? Thanks.
They are almost there.

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
At this point, I'll be rather surprised if this isn't a cat 5. NHC's intensity could be off by as much as 35 or 40 knots right now.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
tolakram wrote:
That is one mean looking storm.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Any links to available observation sites on Dominica?
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- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
Snowman67 wrote:tolakram wrote:
That is one mean looking storm.

Any link?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion
This looks better than 98% of storms. Shocked if it is not designated as a Cat 5 by 8PM.
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