ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Gustywind
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#941 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:11 pm

At what time the plane is sheduled to investigate MARIA? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#942 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:12 pm

Ryxn wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Andrew in 1992 made 2 cat 5 landfalls


Irma made multiple Cat 5 landfalls, IIRC: Barbuda, St. Maarten, Ginger Islands and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, and then finally Cuba.


Thanks, it's funny, I knew about the island landfalls, and was initially thinking purely the number of separate Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall(s) at Cat 5 intensity (so soon to be 2 in 2017's case) but then got ahead of myself talking about Maria possibly making a Cat 5 PR landfall so I switched to talking about number of Cat 5 landfalls. Didn't notice that drift haha.

Also, what's the record for fastest intensification from Category 1 to 5 or shortest time to have a 100 mph wind increase? Was it Wilma? Could Irma beat the record?


I can't say concrete numbers, but I know Matthew and Felix both intensified to Cat 5 in ridiculously short order.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#943 Postby ronyan » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:13 pm

Gustywind wrote:
ronyan wrote:Landfall for Dominica should be around 9 PM CDT so recon should have enough time.

Waouw, how do you calculate that? And for Guadeloupe? Any idea?


Based on the position update Maria is 35 miles ESE of Dominica moving WNW @ 9 mph. Roughly 4 hours assuming constant speed. I don't think Guadeloupe will see direct landfall but should that happen it would be a little after that.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#944 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:14 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Ryxn wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Irma made multiple Cat 5 landfalls, IIRC: Barbuda, St. Maarten, Ginger Islands and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, and then finally Cuba.


Thanks, it's funny, I knew about the island landfalls, and was initially thinking purely the number of separate Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall(s) at Cat 5 intensity (so soon to be 2 in 2017's case) but then got ahead of myself talking about Maria possibly making a Cat 5 PR landfall so I switched to talking about number of Cat 5 landfalls. Didn't notice that drift haha.

Also, what's the record for fastest intensification from Category 1 to 5 or shortest time to have a 100 mph wind increase? Was it Wilma? Could Irma beat the record?


I can't say concrete numbers, but I know Matthew and Felix both intensified to Cat 5 in ridiculously short order.

Wilma '05, Genevieve '14, and Patricia '15 also need to be mentioned. There are also a number of WPac cases.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#945 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:15 pm

Wilma holds the record for fastest intensification to category 5 in the Atlantic, Patricia edged out Forrest overall for the world.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#946 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:18 pm

00Z dvorak estimates could be T7.0/7.0 cuz average dt during 21z-00z would be 7.0 (break the constraints which is +1.0 in 6hrs when T# >=4.0) if Maria continues to keep W ring + WMG eye.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#947 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:19 pm

Think the recon will make it to the storm before landfall, but it's going to be very close.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#948 Postby joey » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:21 pm

can that ull in caribiean have any affect on maria thanks
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#949 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:23 pm

I'm really hoping recon doesn't do a NW/SE pass first, but it looks like that may be what they're going for.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#950 Postby tailgater » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:23 pm

Yesterdays forecast for Maria. pretty close on the position, not so much on intensity.
Not Bashing NHC
INIT 17/2100Z 13.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#951 Postby Ryxn » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:25 pm

joey wrote:can that ull in caribiean have any affect on maria thanks


Appears to be moving west at around the same speed as Maria (who will also move north and away from it) so it shouldn't have any significant effects on Maria's performance.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#952 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:36 pm

Based on radar data, I wonder if it's doing that eyewall melding thing.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#953 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:41 pm

Will there not be any upgrade in intensity prior to the plane getting there, regardless of satellite presentation or other diagnostic assessments?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#954 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:44 pm

Gustywind wrote:At what time the plane is sheduled to investigate MARIA? Thanks.


They are almost there.

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#955 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#956 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:48 pm

At this point, I'll be rather surprised if this isn't a cat 5. NHC's intensity could be off by as much as 35 or 40 knots right now.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#957 Postby Snowman67 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:51 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


That is one mean looking storm.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#958 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:52 pm

Any links to available observation sites on Dominica?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#959 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:53 pm

Snowman67 wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image


That is one mean looking storm.

:eek: AMAZING STORM... hope that very fat gyal will not bring damages in Guadeloupe and Dominca and others neighbours!
Any link?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#960 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:54 pm

This looks better than 98% of storms. Shocked if it is not designated as a Cat 5 by 8PM.
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