ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

232430 1529N 06111W 6963 03014 9904 +103 +103 058082 085 071 022 03
232500 1528N 06110W 6968 02983 9875 +107 +107 059091 096 075 036 03
232530 1527N 06109W 6962 02965 9839 +113 +113 067100 101 084 024 00
232600 1526N 06108W 6981 02905 9784 +120 +120 062099 103 094 023 00
232630 1525N 06107W 6969 02880 9738 +120 +120 062110 113 100 035 00
232700 1524N 06106W 6973 02826 9686 +121 +121 063119 122 104 048 00
232730 1523N 06105W 6971 02770 9622 +121 +121 062128 132 123 064 00
232800 1522N 06104W 6957 02706 9533 +127 +127 065129 136 139 050 00
232830 1521N 06103W 6991 02592 9430 +138 //// 065096 118 152 017 05
232900 1520N 06103W 6963 02576 9344 +155 +136 074051 082 /// /// 03
232930 1518N 06102W 6970 02548 9329 +156 +104 078029 035 040 002 00
233000 1516N 06102W 6972 02528 9287 +182 +099 055014 029 034 001 03
233030 1515N 06101W 6973 02520 9259 +207 +096 252016 029 035 001 03
233100 1514N 06059W 6975 02544 9325 +165 +123 230071 090 078 005 03
233130 1513N 06057W 6967 02651 9477 +137 +137 219119 125 122 020 00
233200 1512N 06056W 6972 02755 9591 +129 //// 212119 125 122 018 05
233230 1511N 06055W 6969 02808 9648 +127 +127 213110 116 118 016 00

[Exalt]

925mb and 139 knots SFMR!! Wow

URNT15 KNHC 182331
AF303 0315A MARIA HDOB 16 20170918
232300 1533N 06114W 6965 03057 9956 +099 +099 055071 072 055 012 00
232330 1532N 06113W 6974 03033 9944 +102 +102 057073 078 062 014 03
232400 1530N 06112W 6975 03020 9927 +104 +104 058080 083 065 019 00
232430 1529N 06111W 6963 03014 9904 +103 +103 058082 085 071 022 03
232500 1528N 06110W 6968 02983 9875 +107 +107 059091 096 075 036 03
232530 1527N 06109W 6962 02965 9839 +113 +113 067100 101 084 024 00
232600 1526N 06108W 6981 02905 9784 +120 +120 062099 103 094 023 00
232630 1525N 06107W 6969 02880 9738 +120 +120 062110 113 100 035 00
232700 1524N 06106W 6973 02826 9686 +121 +121 063119 122 104 048 00
232730 1523N 06105W 6971 02770 9622 +121 +121 062128 132 123 064 00
232800 1522N 06104W 6957 02706 9533 +127 +127 065129 136 139 050 00
232830 1521N 06103W 6991 02592 9430 +138 //// 065096 118 152 017 05
232900 1520N 06103W 6963 02576 9344 +155 +136 074051 082 /// /// 03
232930 1518N 06102W 6970 02548 9329 +156 +104 078029 035 040 002 00
233000 1516N 06102W 6972 02528 9287 +182 +099 055014 029 034 001 03
233030 1515N 06101W 6973 02520 9259 +207 +096 252016 029 035 001 03
233100 1514N 06059W 6975 02544 9325 +165 +123 230071 090 078 005 03
233130 1513N 06057W 6967 02651 9477 +137 +137 219119 125 122 020 00
233200 1512N 06056W 6972 02755 9591 +129 //// 212119 125 122 018 05
233230 1511N 06055W 6969 02808 9648 +127 +127 213110 116 118 016 00

While flagged that 152 has me afraid.

[CrazyC83]

If the 152 is considered accurate, then I would go 150 kt for the intensity. Otherwise, it still supports 140 kt at least.

[Exalt]

232830 1521N 06103W 6991 02592 9430 +138 //// 065096 118 152 017 05

152 sfmr NW quad..

Flagged

[hurricaneCW]

Just as we thought Maria is a Cat 5 only 2-3 hrs from Dominica.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a 140-145kt system. Pressure just below 930mb.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

And that was on the NW quad. NE quad is usually where the strongest winds are.

100% Cat 5, IMO.

[dukeblue219]

That pressure gradient is nuts. Look how fast it fell on each of those 30-second measurement intervals.

[Exalt]

If the 152 is considered accurate, then I would go 150 kt for the intensity. Otherwise, it still supports 140 kt at least.

It's flagged, there's an 05 at the end of the line. I wouldn't be surprised if it were there, but most likely it'll be set to 135-140kt.

[FLpanhandle91]

No double wind maxima...

[SouthDadeFish]

That rate of intensification we have just observed is incredible. Maria is now a category 5 hurricane. Dominica is in grave danger.

[abajan]

The last report from Dominica on StormCarib was at 3:35 PM. We can safely assume things have deteriorated significantly since then.

We had lots of squally weather in Barbados today btw. And one meteorologist said we can expect gusts as high as 60 mph tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

They missed the actual center... winds were still 35 to 40 mph at the lowest pressure.. could be down a 924 mb ..thats a crazy drop from last recon..



233000 1516N 06102W 6972 02528 9287 +182 +099 055014 029 034 001 03
233030 1515N 06101W 6973 02520 9259 +207 +096 252016 029 035 001 03

[OntarioEggplant]

Really really hoping we get a quick pass in the NE quad to confirm max intensity for Dominica

[EquusStorm]

Not at all shocked by the recon findings; in fact it actually looks even stronger than what's being measured, honestly. One of the most jaw-dropping explosive intensifications ever. Ugh, I just hate that it's going to hit islands...

[wxman57]

Chances of this hitting s florida are very slim.......

Can we stop with the slim chances here? As of now, we are all at equal chances of something along the east coast. We won't know for sure who gets it until we are 2-3 days out.

If we use the operational and ensemble runs of the EC, GFS, and Canadian models, then calculate the chances of Maria passing within, say, 125 miles of any point, then the chances of a SE Florida hit are about 5%. About 500 miles east of Miami, the chances are at 70% now. Chances of a strike on the Outer Banks of NC are about 5% as well, but the max probability possible 7 days out is about 10%.

Given the current and predicted SW to NE jet core (by all models) running across Florida, it would seem very unlikely that Florida would be impacted by Maria. Areas from NC through New England would have a greater chance of being impacted. However, ensembles through 10 days suggest a track very similar to Jose - staying well offshore then recurving, but without the loop.

Much will depend on how well the models are handling Jose's intensity and location over the next 5-7 days. If they're too strong with Jose, then the threat to the Mid-Atlantic Coast northward increases.

I was talking to one of my coworkers today about the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, where she has relatives. She said that the hospitals had evacuated all of their patients to St. Croix - which now lies directly in the path of Maria.

[tropicwatch]

There is a 139kt (160mph) non-flagged reading with rain rate 1.97in hr.

[Alyono]

And that was on the NW quad. NE quad is usually where the strongest winds are.

100% Cat 5, IMO.

northwest is the right front quadrant

[CrazyC83]

Really really hoping we get a quick pass in the NE quad to confirm max intensity for Dominica

NW quad would be strongest in a west-moving storm.

[GCANE]