ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

Is this tracking more wnw then nw?

WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H - 745 PM ET update

Does this track and speed have implications for PR? Is this closely following the NHC's track?

[NDG]

Maria's intensification during the past 24 hrs is insane, yet another Cat 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin, no words!

[EquusStorm]

Just awful. As fascinated as I am with super intense tropical systems, this is just heartbreaking. Just one of Irma's multiple island-wiping hits would be more than enough to make a devastating season but this? This is absurd.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A rapidly intensifying Category 5 hurricane is about to hit Dominica. I cannot even begin to describe how bad of a situation this is.

[Dean4Storms]

Is this tracking more wnw then nw?

WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H - 745 PM ET update

Does this track and speed have implications for PR? Is this closely following the NHC's track?

It's right on track, speed looks a bit slower and of course intensity.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/909929397674704896

OMG, those poor people, sending many prayers to the people in the path os this storm. I have alot of family in Puerto Rico in the path of this storm. Going to be a long few days.

Good luck to them. The rest of the people around you won't feel the weight that's on your shoulders, and it's going to be hard to see how everyone who doesn't have family in the path can think about trivial stuff like boxing matches at a time like this.

I unfortunately got to know what that felt like this summer. I suppose way too many of us did.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 23:30:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°15'N 61°01'W (15.25N 61.0167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (~ 160.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 64° at 136kts (From the ENE at ~ 156.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,033m (9,951ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles


Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NNW (333°) from the flight level center at 23:28:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 40kts (From the S at 46mph)

[CrazyC83]

169kts couple hundred feet up.. you better bet some of that will make to the surface.

The hillsides in Dominica are going to look like a giant EF-5 tornado hit them with those winds aloft.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow. This season.
One month ago we were just having a run-of-the-mill season. Now we have two confirmed (+1 unconfirmed in Jose) Cat. 5s... and September isn't over yet .
Not sure if this season can reach 2005-like activity (2005 had that ridiculous July, and Rita had already formed by this time in 2005), but this is insane.
This would be an amazing season to watch... if, you know, those cat. 5s weren't heading straight into populated islands/landmasses.
Hoping for the best, but fearing the worst, for Dominica and Puerto Rico (and all others in the way).

By levels of activity, most of us mean by Accumulated Cyclone Energy. This season is more like 2004 than the following year, given that despite the number of storms being only slightly above average, the ACE was hyperactive, very close to 2005; storms that year were high in intensity and longevity especially Ivan and Frances. 2005, on the other hand, had an abundance of category 5's yet they weren't as long-lived as storms like Ivan and Irma---no storms exceeded 40 ACE (Wilma produced the most at 38.9, far cry from Irma's 66.6 or Ivan's 70.4). In layman's terms, it's quality over quantity.

[floridasun78]

video from Dominica https://www.facebook.com/DominicaNewsOnline

[GCANE]

[Dean4Storms]

The Dropsonde in that eyewall would out run Jr's #88 at Talladega.

[Ken711]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Maria.

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen. The aircraft
measured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an
estimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data.
Based on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has
been increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24
hours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall
cycles and land interaction.

No change was made to the previous track forecast, and the
extremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica
within the next hour or two.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect
for many of these islands.

2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous
major hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that
island.

3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by
large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall
are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0000Z 15.3N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 61.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.3N 64.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 18.2N 66.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 20.0N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 22.0N 71.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 25.0N 73.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

[Hurrilurker]

So Dominica likely completely leveled. Guadeloupe will sustain catastrophic damage. US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico likely the same soon. Plus major damage to Martinique, British VI, Monserrat, Antigua & Barbuda (what's left of them). And it won't even be done at Puerto Rico.

Wow, this season is really one for the record books. We may never witness anything like this again in our lifetimes (hopefully).

[Blinhart]

I saw they already dropped the pressure another 4 mb down to 925.

[Hurrilurker]

NHC officially just changed to 925 mb / 160 mph.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 23:30:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°15'N 61°01'W (15.25N 61.0167W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 139kts (~ 160.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 64° at 136kts (From the ENE at ~ 156.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNW (333°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 928mb (27.41 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,033m (9,951ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles


Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 136kts (~ 156.5mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NNW (333°) from the flight level center at 23:28:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 180° at 40kts (From the S at 46mph)

Thats getting into Wilma territory with an eye that small

[GCANE]

Eyewall just about to come onshore.

[sweetpea]

 https://twitter.com/JeffLindner1/status/909929397674704896

OMG, those poor people, sending many prayers to the people in the path os this storm. I have alot of family in Puerto Rico in the path of this storm. Going to be a long few days.

Good luck to them. The rest of the people around you won't feel the weight that's on your shoulders, and it's going to be hard to see how everyone who doesn't have family in the path can think about trivial stuff like boxing matches at a time like this.

I unfortunately got to know what that felt like this summer. I suppose way too many of us did.

Thank you for that, unfortunately too many people have felt that pit in your stomach this season. My dad is on the SE side of the island about 2 miles from the shore, he will not leave. He is 81 yrs old, I am so mad at him. I have alot of friends and family in Florida also, it has been a long few weeks for somany people. My heart is breaking for all in the path of these storms.

[floridasun78]

i listern to radio from Dominica playing music