ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1381 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:08 am

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Winds are really picking up in Guadeloupe! I cannot see anything from my house but i can assume you that i have this powerfull voice of the Wind behing my Windows..." Vrrr"... maybe strong gusts near 90-100 km/h IMO


im not sure of your location.. but it will be getting to its closest approach very soon.. the inner eye wall is very close to the SW tip of the island. . assuming it does not wobble anymore.. it might get worse before better.

Aric what are the latest infos related to MARIA in terms of characteristics? Thanks.


It has pretty much maintained. pressure rose but last recon pass showed a slight pressure drop again. ERC is in progress but wont change anything in the short term. the outer eyewall is pretty onshore the SW tip but is no where near as strong..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1382 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:08 am

Looks like very bad conditions are coming in our way...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1383 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:10 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
im not sure of your location.. but it will be getting to its closest approach very soon.. the inner eye wall is very close to the SW tip of the island. . assuming it does not wobble anymore.. it might get worse before better.

Aric what are the latest infos related to MARIA in terms of characteristics? Thanks.


It has pretty much maintained. pressure rose but last recon pass showed a slight pressure drop again. ERC is in progress but wont change anything in the short term.

ok thanks a lot... but that's not good news in fact, oh boy. I supposed that all citizens are prepared for this?!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1384 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:11 am

Gustywind wrote:Looks like very bad conditions are coming in our way...


your pretty much getting the worst of it for the next hour or soo. hang in there. :)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1385 Postby Gustywind » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:22 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Looks like very bad conditions are coming in our way...


your pretty much getting the worst of it for the next hour or soo. hang in there. :)

Yeah thanks :(
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1386 Postby Hurrilurker » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:28 am

Looks like the eye wall is going to just barely brush the southern tip of Guadeloupe, possibly sparing it the very worst, though it will no doubt be bad anyway.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1387 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:32 am

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Aric what are the latest infos related to MARIA in terms of characteristics? Thanks.


It has pretty much maintained. pressure rose but last recon pass showed a slight pressure drop again. ERC is in progress but wont change anything in the short term.

ok thanks a lot... but that's not good news in fact, oh boy. I supposed that all citizens are prepared for this?!



In your estimation how strong is the wind?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1388 Postby Hurrilurker » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:32 am

IR shows the heavy convection re-wrapping itself around the eye (almost completely surrounded now), restrengthening likely.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1389 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:45 am

outer eyewall becoming more pronounced. ERC looks like it will take some time.. but the environment is ripe and a cat 5 again tomorrow is quite possible..

the HWRF has done a great job on intensity thus far.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1390 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 12:54 am

quick update on HWRF 850 mb comparison vs the 10m winds.

so far its clear again that after reaching hurricane strength the 10m winds from the HWRF do not accurately model the actual winds and should not be used. Instead the 850 mb winds prove to be more useful.

according the HWRF there should be another deepening period in the next 12 hours...

of course a lot more data needs to be analyzed but this also liekly applies to all models.



Image
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1391 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:02 am

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 61.9 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased only slightly, to
near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane while it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is
942 mb (27.82 inches)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1392 Postby Nightwatch » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:38 am

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Looks like very bad conditions are coming in our way...


your pretty much getting the worst of it for the next hour or soo. hang in there. :)

Yeah thanks :(


Keep strong and good luck out there. Stay safe.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1393 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:46 am

very intense eyewall convection occurring. likely deepening quickly again.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1394 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:10 am

hmmm. maria has taken a crazy west wobble the last hour.. likely the ERC but hard to tell just yet..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1395 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:15 am

upper low in central Caribbean has stopped moving west. Seeing a touch of shear approaching this
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1396 Postby Kenderkin17 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:49 am

I'm guessing the HDW pocket south of the Dominican Republic is only going to apply shear and some steering to the North? Or is that entirely dependent on the storms strength at that point?

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1397 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:54 am

150 knt flight level and 142 knt smrf.

Cat5 again
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1398 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 19, 2017 3:56 am

Sciencerocks wrote:150 knt flight level and 142 knt smrf.

Cat5 again


Too bad they couldn't have waited a few more minutes with the advisory.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1399 Postby flamingosun » Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:02 am

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


Hang tough, Gustywind!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1400 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:09 am

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN
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