ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormtrack03]

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
510 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...MARIA REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Maria has reintensified to category 5
status, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph (260
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 510 AM AST...0910 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

I am very concerned for PR and nearby islands.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 8:36:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°53'N 62°15'W (15.8833N 62.25W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 933mb (27.55 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the NNE (32°) from the flight level center at 8:39:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 110° at 27kts (From the ESE at 31mph)

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Hurricane Maria Local Statement Advisory Number 13
PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-191745-

Hurricane Maria Local Statement Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service San Juan PR AL152017
540 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

This product covers PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS

**EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin
Islands.

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 300 miles southeast of San Juan PR or about 200 miles
southeast of Saint Croix VI
- 16.0N 62.3W
- Storm Intensity 160 mph
- Movement West-northwest or 300 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane conditions are expected to begin tonight across the USVI,
Vieques and Culebra; and across Puerto Rico early Wednesday morning.
Hurricane force winds will likely continue across USVI, Vieques and
Culebra through Wednesday afternoon; and across Puerto Rico through
late Wednesday night. These winds will produce catastrophic damage.
Rainfall accumulations across the local islands will depend highly on
the forward speed, and based on the latest forecast Maria is expected
to produce storm total accumulations of 12 to 18 inches with isolated
amounts of 25 inches or more. Therefore, devastating to catastrophic
flooding is also expected. Preparations should be wrapped up as soon
as possible.

[PaulR]

2017 It's only the 7th Atlantic season to have more than 1 category 5 hurricane and it's only the 2nd time that 2 hurricanes make landfall at that intensity in the same season.

I wonder what the record is for intensification in, say, a 5 hour period?

(Edit: "Intensification to Cat 5")

Forrest '83 and Wilma '05 may be the best starting points. Storms like Felix '07, Genevieve '14, and the preliminary data for Noru '17 may also be worth a look.

Noted - thanks! I suppose an even more interesting question, but perhaps more subjective, would be: "What was the most unexpected RI of 2 categories or more?" (Ie., the amount or rapidity of intensification caught forecasters by surprise.) And in retrospect, why? However, that discussion might be best on a separate thread. It just occurred to me when hearing the people on Q95FM talk about being caught somewhat by surprise by the storm's strength, and the NHC issuing a special advisory (800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017) (I read between the lines a little?) ..

[GCANE]

Footage compilation, first videos after Category 5 hurricane Maria passed Guadeloupe to the south.



Link: https://youtu.be/1A-pk9MTyOc

[GCANE]

Rapid Intensification on approach to Dominica

[GCANE]

Now moving into much higher Heat-Content water.

[wxman57]

Bad storm for the Caribbean, but it's looking more likely it won't be a threat to the East U.S. Coast. Chances of it passing within 125 miles of Florida down to 2-3%. Still about a 5% chance for the Outer Banks. Deep trof/front approaching the East Coast early next week should steer it northeastward. Time to head to the office to work on the next Maria advisory...

[Nimbus]

Footage compilation, first videos after Category 5 hurricane Maria passed Guadeloupe to the south.



Link: https://youtu.be/1A-pk9MTyOc

Light poles like that sheared at the base during Irma west of Tampa, same with a railroad crossing gate and those were only category 1 hurricane winds.

[GCANE]

1st Vis Images coming into view

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Staggering 75 mm/hr rain rate NW Eyewall

[GCANE]

PINHOLE

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 10:20:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°04'N 62°28'W (16.0667N 62.4667W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 140kts (~ 161.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NW/NNW (326°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 68° at 137kts (From the ENE at ~ 157.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NW (321°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 150kts (~ 172.6mph) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the E (95°) from the flight level center at 8:39:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 175° at 17kts (From the S at 20mph)

[GCANE]

[cjrciadt]

Will this reach 160kts? Two Cat 5s within two weeks !!

[Kenderkin17]

Honestly hope this storm does turn OTS. It's a tragedy what has happened thus far in the Caribbean, and I am in sorrow for all suffering.

[Gustywind]

Numerous damages have been reported in Guadeloupe, branchs, trees, but roofs too, floodings in the island. We're always confined in our house, looks like we should stay like that till 12 AM. I'm safe and dry but i can't open my window to see the direct damages in my area. Winds were really strongs and rainfall amounts pretty amazing...

Observed datas :
http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf (french version)
Winds measured at the end of the night yesterday
148 km/h at Baillif, 136 km/h à Neufchâteau Capesterre-Belle-Eau, 135 km/h at Gourbeyre, 159 km/h
at Bellevue Pointe-Noire.
RAINFALL ESTIMATIONS DURING THE EPISODE
459 mm at Matouba, with 78 mm in one hour, 210 mm at Baillif, 259 mm at Vieux-Habitants, 209 mm at Raizet (area of our Weather Office!)

[gtalum]

I'm really glad that you're ok Gusty.