I'm actually curious how accurate the Farmer's Almanac (which I guess is different than the OFA?) is?
Texas Winter 2017-2018
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I'm actually curious how accurate the Farmer's Almanac (which I guess is different than the OFA?) is?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yea, there seems to be 2 different almanacs. The old farmers almanac says they have an 80% accuracy on their seasonal forecasts. Whether true or not, who knows. The regular farmers almanac called for "chilled to the bone and wet" last winter and we all know how that went.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going.
Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?
Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
it looks like weak la nina is coming for the winter, may not be the worst pattern in the world
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Portastorm wrote:Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going.
Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?
All we need now is wxman57 to speak it into existence. Any idea when the next forecasted front is coming down?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
SoupBone wrote:Portastorm wrote:Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going.
Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?
All we need now is wxman57 to speak it into existence. Any idea when the next forecasted front is coming down?
Srain rain stated October.....maybe he will update his forecast on that...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yukon Cornelius wrote:So if it does end being a Nina winter can we go ahead and post up the annual "Winter Cancel"?
You can go right ahead and leave this thread now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
La Niña anyone?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
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Tammie - Sherman TX
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Tammie wrote:La Niña anyone?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml
Yeah, but wasn't there an El Nino bust forecast this year as well? All I need is wxman57 in here to make it so, and you can take all these La Nina posts out of here!
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Nina ... schmeena.
While I would not be pleased about a lack of precipitation as a result of a Nina, it certainly doesn't preclude winter weather ... at least in my part of the state. There have been a number of wintry weather events during weak and moderate Nina winters. In fact, the last time it really snowed of any consequence in Austin was during a moderate Nina winter.
Like I was saying the other day, there are a lot of other indices to pay attention to besides ENSO values. AO, PDO, etc. Don't lose heart folks.
While I would not be pleased about a lack of precipitation as a result of a Nina, it certainly doesn't preclude winter weather ... at least in my part of the state. There have been a number of wintry weather events during weak and moderate Nina winters. In fact, the last time it really snowed of any consequence in Austin was during a moderate Nina winter.
Like I was saying the other day, there are a lot of other indices to pay attention to besides ENSO values. AO, PDO, etc. Don't lose heart folks.
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
[quote="Portastorm"]Nina ... schmeena.
You mock Ms.Nina Porta? Oh my goodness. The streak is still on sir...will the Royals spoil it sir. Will Astros catch fire again and catch the Indians. Stay tuned to the Porta Chronicles!!
You mock Ms.Nina Porta? Oh my goodness. The streak is still on sir...will the Royals spoil it sir. Will Astros catch fire again and catch the Indians. Stay tuned to the Porta Chronicles!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Portastorm wrote:Ben Noll on Twitter this morning posted the new JMA seasonal outlook for winter. It shows fairly stout ridging in the SW and SE. I'm hoping that means a consistent trough over the middle of the country which would pour cold air south and get a little southern jet action going.
Ntxw or some of the others ... remind me/us about how winters usually go when we have that type of setup (assuming the JMA verifies)?
That is a good pattern Porta! It is good to have troughs settle over us for cold air to pour into. Now we just need some high latitude blocking...
The past few years November has tipped us hints of what winter may be like. 2013 and 2014 had cold surges with threats of wintry weather followed by rather interesting winters. 2015 and 2016 have been warm Novembers and mild winters.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Oh look I found a pic from the future. Here's wxman57 trying to commute to work on December 12th, 2017.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
SoupBone wrote:Oh look I found a pic from the future. Here's wxman57 trying to commute to work on December 12th, 2017.
http://thumbs.newschoolers.com/index.ph ... e=400x1000
That'll be the last time I ever try waxing my skis with superglue.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.
Just on the basis of the past weather events on NOAA, 2008-2009 appears to be a pretty uneventful winter season. I could be 100% wrong as the NOAA page is my only source I'm using.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.
Just on the basis of the past weather events on NOAA, 2008-2009 appears to be a pretty uneventful winter season. I could be 100% wrong as the NOAA page is my only source I'm using.
Houston had the earliest snowfall (at the time, only to be beaten the next year) at December 10th in 2008.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.
As long as the word cold is used in our discussions, I don't care if it's wet or dry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.
At least for the Austin area, that winter got off to a fantastic start. We had three cold blasts in December alone and a small snowfall along with some freezing drizzle and sleet. But after 1/1/09, it was relatively warm and dry with no additional "winter" events.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Portastorm wrote:Ntxw wrote:The cold neutral or Nina though, pretty much ends 2009-2010 as a potential analog. The season before that 2008-2009 now looks quite similar. It was also a falling sunspot year, second year Nina, as well as a hurricane hit on Texas (Ike) so that might be a starting bloc with analogs.
At least for the Austin area, that winter got off to a fantastic start. We had three cold blasts in December alone and a small snowfall along with some freezing drizzle and sleet. But after 1/1/09, it was relatively warm and dry with no additional "winter" events.
I would prefer for Winter to continue through February, but honestly after New year's Day, I kind of don't mind milder temps. I have to have Christmas cold though, and preferably Thanksgiving.
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