ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

pressure 928 mb

With 17 kt winds at splash. Minimum pressure likely between 926-927 mb now.

Yep, 927 is being reported in the latest advisory.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that Maria regained category 5 status shortly after the last
advisory, and that it is currently maintaining an intensity near 140
kt with a central pressure near 927 mb. The aircraft data suggests
an outer wind maximum that could be the start of an eyewall
replacement cycle, but this feature does not yet have a good
signature in radar data or microwave imagery.

The eye of Maria has been wobbling quite a bit, but a smoother
long-term motion is 300/9. There is little change to the track
forecast reasoning or the forecast track since the previous
advisory. A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is
expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on
this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or
over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that
time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken,
partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane
Jose off the U.S. east coast. This pattern should cause Maria to
turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by days 4-5. The
track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 h and fairly well
clustered at 120 h, and the new track is to the left of center of
the cluster mainly between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Maria should remain in a generally favorable environment through 48
h, and based on this and the latest guidance the new intensity
forecast keeps Maria at 135-140 kt up to the time of landfall in
Puerto Rico. After crossing Puerto Rico, the upper-level winds are
expected to become less favorable, and the intensity forecast shows
a slow weakening that follows the upper edge of the guidance. A
complication to the intensity forecast is that there will likely be
fluctuations caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on
top of the general trends shown in the official forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands
today and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyone
in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 16.3N 63.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 18.8N 67.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 19.6N 68.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 21.5N 70.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 24.5N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 27.5N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tolakram]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua and Barbuda
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Anguilla
* Martinique

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla
* Isla Saona to Puerto Plata

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-Haiti
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.
Additional watches and warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.1 West. Maria is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea today, and then pass near or over the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria is
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane
until it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km). NOAA buoy 42060, located a little west of the center,
recently reported 1-min average winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a
wind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 927 mb (27.37 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughout
portions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands this
morning, and spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight
and Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring over the
remainder of the Leeward Islands, and should spread into the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the
Dominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic on
Wednesday.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11
feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area near
where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and the
British Virgin Islands.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[tarheelprogrammer]

OMG, pray for them.
 https://twitter.com/tintin6314/status/910150775506112512

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/910151707555979264




Stu Ostro ✔ @StuOstro
Beam ht from San Juan radar high that far from site but catching top of #HurricaneMaria #eyewall, and showing its deep convection >50K feet
10:40 AM - Sep 19, 2017

[Aric Dunn]

There were some eyewall drops. but they wont load for me. anyone have them ?

[dukeblue219]

There were some eyewall drops. but they wont load for me. anyone have them ?

From http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... duct=sonde

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 14:47Z

Code: Select all

942mb (Surface)   180° (from the S)   103 knots (119 mph)
940mb   185° (from the S)   118 knots (136 mph)
939mb   190° (from the S)   120 knots (138 mph)
931mb   205° (from the SSW)   117 knots (135 mph)
919mb   205° (from the SSW)   128 knots (147 mph)
910mb   215° (from the SW)   125 knots (144 mph)
904mb   215° (from the SW)   117 knots (135 mph)
893mb   215° (from the SW)   120 knots (138 mph)
876mb   220° (from the SW)   112 knots (129 mph)
866mb   225° (from the SW)   121 knots (139 mph)
858mb   230° (from the SW)   120 knots (138 mph)
854mb   230° (from the SW)   124 knots (143 mph)
850mb   230° (from the SW)   120 knots (138 mph)
798mb   255° (from the WSW)   102 knots (117 mph)
723mb   280° (from the W)   130 knots (150 mph)
696mb   280° (from the W)   123 knots (142 mph)

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 14:55Z

Code: Select all

966mb (Surface)   45° (from the NE)   102 knots (117 mph)
965mb   45° (from the NE)   104 knots (120 mph)
963mb   40° (from the NE)   117 knots (135 mph)
962mb   40° (from the NE)   122 knots (140 mph)
956mb   45° (from the NE)   127 knots (146 mph)
949mb   45° (from the NE)   139 knots (160 mph)
936mb   55° (from the NE)   131 knots (151 mph)
926mb   60° (from the ENE)   130 knots (150 mph)
917mb   65° (from the ENE)   136 knots (157 mph)
909mb   70° (from the ENE)   132 knots (152 mph)
850mb   80° (from the E)   130 knots (150 mph)
698mb   105° (from the ESE)   132 knots (152 mph)

A third dropped in the center and splashed at 928/17kt

[GCANE]

[utweather]

The track in PR may go right over the giant radio telescope at Arecibo in mountainous terrain. My uncle worked there with Cornell University in building that facility.

Not looking good for Puerto Rico. Any info on how many shelters are available and filled up? Any way to get a mass evacuation this late if they are full? Whats the plan??

According to the governor this morning... 500 shelters available but only 299 people using them.

That is sad. Is it not mandatory or will they wait until this afternoon?

[Exalt]

This thing has been increasingly looking like a WPAC typhoon, anyone know why? It has that kind of distinct banding and shape..

[Michele B]

The track in PR may go right over the giant radio telescope at Arecibo in mountainous terrain. My uncle worked there with Cornell University in building that facility.

Not looking good for Puerto Rico. Any info on how many shelters are available and filled up? Any way to get a mass evacuation this late if they are full? Whats the plan??

Even tho they didn't get a direct hit from Irma, weren't there plenty of places that flooded pretty bad?

They don't need this!

[Michele B]

San Juan has a really good chance at seeing the eyewall. I hope people are as prepared as they can be.

Not just the eyewall, but specifically the NE quad if the Euro holds true. I really hope they are prepared. What's the expected impact timeline for Puerto Rico?

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

[artist]

http://streema.com/radios/Wice_QFM
Streaming again from Dominica

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/910157727812513792




Michael Lowry ✔ @MichaelRLowry
NOAA buoy 42060 now only ~10 miles ahead of #Maria. Pressure down to 962 mb as of 10:40 AM ET.
11:04 AM - Sep 19, 2017

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/910141777797054464

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/910158530514243584




NASA SPoRT ✔ @NASA_SPoRT
#Maria's open eye this morning. Max sustained winds at 160 MPH. @NHC_Atlantic expects a #PuertoRico landfall tomorrow. #GOES16
11:07 AM - Sep 19, 2017

https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DKGIBUYXoAYiapq.mp4

[northjaxpro]

Beyond 5 days put many question marks with regards to the projected track ?????????????????

Notice how very slow.NHC has Maria moving after moving just north and east of the Bahamas after day 5. This may be foretelling collapsing steering currents down the road.

Many variables on the table. It is possible Maria could meander around off the SE U.S. or Mid-Atlantic coast
as one of the possibilities.

We could be tracking Maria well into next week possibly.

[jlauderdal]

Not looking good for Puerto Rico. Any info on how many shelters are available and filled up? Any way to get a mass evacuation this late if they are full? Whats the plan??

According to the governor this morning... 500 shelters available but only 299 people using them.

That is sad. Is it not mandatory or will they wait until this afternoon?

mandatory isnt really mandatory, they arent going to force people to go like they do in cuba...i was in a mandatory in fll and i didnt leave and very few did, we never had any surge

[BobHarlem]

According to the governor this morning... 500 shelters available but only 299 people using them.

That is sad. Is it not mandatory or will they wait until this afternoon?

mandatory isnt really mandatory, they arent going to force people to go like they do in cuba...i was in a mandatory in fll and i didnt leave and very few did, we never had any surge

Mandatory meaning there's a high likelihood emergency services would be suspended during the storm (Aka you are on your own). That's the main reason for the evacuation orders.

[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/910141777797054464

Cycloneye.. I think I speak for all of us here.. best of luck with Maria! This is looking very ugly for beautiful PR. I hope it wobbles around you!