ATL: MARIA - Models
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Euro dive jose back south and SW again completely breaking the ridge again. maria is heading out.
honestly jose's strength is still the biggest issue. only time will tell..
right now JOSE is only a 100 miles from being over upper 60 to lower 70 degree water. the recent convection likely wont last and jose will beging to wind down once it passes over the water..
though some of the models insist on it strengthening which is why there is low confidence with jose at the moment.
honestly jose's strength is still the biggest issue. only time will tell..
right now JOSE is only a 100 miles from being over upper 60 to lower 70 degree water. the recent convection likely wont last and jose will beging to wind down once it passes over the water..
though some of the models insist on it strengthening which is why there is low confidence with jose at the moment.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
96 hours the HP in the W Atlantic vaporizes, nowhere to go but OTS at that point...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Blinhart wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:THe crazy thing is. IF Jose was not there. this would be a classic setup of a trough out west and a large building ridge on the east coast. maria could have been a gulf store or a west runner easy.
Still of course a chance of gulf..
I really don't know what to think, models are going crazy with Jose and whats left of Lee, so who knows what Maria is going to do.
I don't think the models know what to think, either!
I guess they've never had to figure out what to do with TWO systems influencing a major hurricane: one east of it, one north of it. The models are probably as confused as we are!
Again proves so much of what I am always saying: there's so much we don't understand about projecting the future of these things.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
By hour 120 the Euro has a much stronger Atlantic ridge... Also of note the Euro has consistently been too strong with Jose, off by 10-15mb at times and that's critical as Jose starts to weaken.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
hmm 120 hours.. Jose weakening fast and ridging building off east coast.. maybe carolinas on this if jose weakens quicker.
the only hard thing to predict is the circulations interacting again..
the only hard thing to predict is the circulations interacting again..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Jose much weaker but still farther west than the previous run at hour 120...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:for instance on this eueo run if jose stays north and does not drop back south the ridging that develops behind it likely wont break and maria likely to stay on a more wnw course. but the 00z has jose drop back to the south weakening the ridging again and thus maria goes through it.
Yeah... not sure why posters are so convinced of an OTS scenario for Maria given all the confounding factors with Jose. cranky gives a great synopsis of this in his tweet:
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/910166896095498242
Seems like the only way Maria will go OTS is if Jose loops back around, but cranky also point out that factors are converging to kick Jose OTS for good.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
WOW. A baby remnant Jose goes into southern NJ / coastal DE at hour 144. Ridge builds in over top. Hmmmmm. Incredibly complex setup here.
Last edited by 'CaneFreak on Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
12z Euro so far


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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
'CaneFreak wrote:WOW. A baby remnant Jose goes into southern NJ / coastal DE at hour 144. Ridge builds in over top. Hmmmmm. Incredibly complex setup here.
yeah but looks like they are going to do some fujiwhara this run..
but if jose is weaker earlier than this then its a much bigger threat.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Trend. Different solution from 0Z and previous 12Z runs.


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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
12Z Euro over PR


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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Instead of turning NNE to NE this run the Euro takes Maria more N/NNW bringing her a bit closer to the Carolina coast. If the Euro is still overdoing the intensity of Jose like it has in previous runs then that would put Maria dangerously close to the US as the ridge would build in a little stronger than currently modeled.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Will this run be known for the famous left turn?


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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
RL3AO wrote:This is very likely to stay away from the east coast. However, with Jose being modeled oddly at times, I'm still gonna be watching for signs of significant westward shifts.
Sometimes I should just shut up.

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Oh my. Jose didn't lead her away this time. Hope this doesn't happen.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/910212982608625664
HRD/AOML/NOAA ✔ @HRD_AOML_NOAA
The G-IV jet is in route to collect data around Hurricane Maria https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/1 ... ane-maria/ …
2:44 PM - Sep 19, 2017
HRD/AOML/NOAA ✔ @HRD_AOML_NOAA
The G-IV jet is in route to collect data around Hurricane Maria https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2017/09/1 ... ane-maria/ …
2:44 PM - Sep 19, 2017
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