ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, those 196mph gusts are not far above the surface.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:21Z

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
927mb (Surface) 95° (from the E) 128 knots (147 mph)
926mb 95° (from the E) 129 knots (148 mph)
923mb 100° (from the E) 150 knots (173 mph)
921mb 105° (from the ESE) 166 knots (191 mph)
919mb 110° (from the ESE) 170 knots (196 mph)
906mb 125° (from the SE) 154 knots (177 mph)
899mb 130° (from the SE) 167 knots (192 mph)
884mb 135° (from the SE) 153 knots (176 mph)
874mb 145° (from the SE) 163 knots (188 mph)
869mb 150° (from the SSE) 146 knots (168 mph)
866mb 150° (from the SSE) 142 knots (163 mph)
850mb 155° (from the SSE) 146 knots (168 mph)
750mb 195° (from the SSW) 132 knots (152 mph)
698mb 215° (from the SW) 141 knots (162 mph)

AS we saw with IRMA they are likely mixing down as well.

[got ants?]

Im not sure about all but most of those are Caribbean or Gulf storms. I think hes talking about the Atlantic

Maria is in the Caribbean...

she wasnt born in the caribbean and hasnt quite reached it yet. It starts right around Haiti.

Huh? She most definitely is in the Caribbean now. The Carib runs from Venezuela to Florida, and from Panama to the leewards/windwards.

[Alyono]

FYI... ERCs typically take between 12-24 hours to complete. This one is just starting. It may not complete before a potential Puerto Rico landfall, but it will be close. It's concerning to see the pressure continue to fall like this with a secondary eyewall forming. Nothing is slowing it down for now.

do you have any ideas as to why ewrcs have not been causing weakening this year? Harvey intensified through its replacement, as did Irma through its initial one.. I've never seen this before

[FLpanhandle91]

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19
Location: 16.8°N 64.0°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 916 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph

[Exalt]

FYI... ERCs typically take between 12-24 hours to complete. This one is just starting. It may not complete before a potential Puerto Rico landfall, but it will be close. It's concerning to see the pressure continue to fall like this with a secondary eyewall forming. Nothing is slowing it down for now.

do you have any ideas as to why ewrcs have not been causing weakening this year? Harvey intensified through its replacement, as did Irma through its initial one.. I've never seen this before

I wouldn't even say replacement cycle, more like replenishing cycle. They just seem to become spiral bands that feed into the inner eyewall, expanding it.

[Aric Dunn]

outer eyewall is looking pretty solid now. solid ring of deeper convection. wont be too much longer before the inner core shrinks even more and probably starts rotating around in that very large outer eyewall

[OntarioEggplant]

FYI... ERCs typically take between 12-24 hours to complete. This one is just starting. It may not complete before a potential Puerto Rico landfall, but it will be close. It's concerning to see the pressure continue to fall like this with a secondary eyewall forming. Nothing is slowing it down for now.

do you have any ideas as to why ewrcs have not been causing weakening this year? Harvey intensified through its replacement, as did Irma through its initial one.. I've never seen this before

The evacuative outflow is strong enough to keep the pressure steady state or lower is my guess

[Stormtrack03]

From 5 PM NHC Maria Discussion:

"Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the
outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its
maximum potential intensity."

ummm.. what is its max potential intensity ?

[gtalum]

From 5 PM NHC Maria Discussion:

"Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the
outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its
maximum potential intensity."

ummm.. what is its max potential intensity ?

165 mph is the highest forecast intensity, though I guess they're saying it may pump up a bit more before landfall on PR.

[bob rulz]

NHC went with 916mb. Isn't that what Irma bottomed out at?

[Aric Dunn]

the outer eye right now ( of course it will contract ) is nearly the width of PR>... just a random observation..

[bob rulz]

From 5 PM NHC Maria Discussion:

"Some additional strengthening is possible this evening before the
outer eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its
maximum potential intensity."

ummm.. what is its max potential intensity ?

They're likely referring to the absolute maximum intensity that the ocean in that area can support, would be my guess. A very scary sentence.

[znel52]

NHC went with 916mb. Isn't that what Irma bottomed out at?

Irma hit 914

[Sciencerocks]

NHC went with 916mb. Isn't that what Irma bottomed out at?

Irma was 914mb

[chaser1]

FYI... ERCs typically take between 12-24 hours to complete. This one is just starting. It may not complete before a potential Puerto Rico landfall, but it will be close. It's concerning to see the pressure continue to fall like this with a secondary eyewall forming. Nothing is slowing it down for now.

do you have any ideas as to why ewrcs have not been causing weakening this year? Harvey intensified through its replacement, as did Irma through its initial one.. I've never seen this before

What was the widest point/eye-wall diameter during Harvey's ERC? I may be wrong here but it seems to me that overall we are seeing smaller & tighter eyes, more rapid RI, and faster all around ERC cycles. Additionally, I just don't really recall the majority of past 20 + year of "majors" hurricanes seemingly all going through these ERC's as most now do. I imagine that might simply be because of our improved analysis and satellite observation capabilities over the years though.

[bob rulz]

Ah, thank you for the correction. What an incredible season this has been. Unfortunately, incredible seasons are usually terrible seasons as well.

If anybody would've proposed that two hurricanes would reach sub-920 intensity in the Lesser Antilles region in the same season, they would've been laughed at.

[chaser1]

NHC went with 916mb. Isn't that what Irma bottomed out at?

Irma was 914mb

.... and had peak sustained winds of 185mph I believe.

[tropicwatch]

St. Croix starting to get TS wind gusts.

[RL3AO]

Unfortunately, it appears Puerto Rico will not escape landfall from one of the most devastating hurricanes in the islands modern history. I worry many will be without electricity for weeks or months.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/910241542157295617