ATL: MARIA - Models
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
ok my weatherman say we looking good now area north Carolina need watch it
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
18z gfs through hr 96 is a bit nw
florida should be fine this run as jose is actually stalling just south of Cape Cod
i think it recurves ots unless jose stops stalling
florida should be fine this run as jose is actually stalling just south of Cape Cod
i think it recurves ots unless jose stops stalling
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Through hr 108. Jose is heading east and weakening and Maria is moving NNW.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Well, not exactly the trend the EC was hoping for. 18z GFS essentially fills in whatever's left of Jose by day 4-5 under the mid-level amplifying ridge.
Not sure how Maria is going to get out on this run...
In the interim best wishes and thoughts for our friends in Puerto Rico.
MW
Not sure how Maria is going to get out on this run...
In the interim best wishes and thoughts for our friends in Puerto Rico.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
MWatkins wrote:Well, not exactly the trend the EC was hoping for. 18z GFS essentially fills in whatever's left of Jose by day 4-5 under the mid-level amplifying ridge.
Not sure how Maria is going to get out on this run...
In the interim best wishes and thoughts for our friends in Puerto Rico.
MW
Agreed, not liking the west trend today.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
WOW. This run is going to be a close call for NC. It is still heading north-northwest at hour 120. 588 contour line completely enclosed around the Bermuda-Azores High and Northeast High. Jose no longer has much of a reflection on the 500 height map.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
18z gfs hr 126 very close to the outer banks
i wouldn't be sleeping on this if you are in NC
i wouldn't be sleeping on this if you are in NC
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming
looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run
looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Just misses us this run. Will get within 50 miles of Hatteras. Wow.
Aric Dunn wrote:well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming
looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming
looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run
looks to be heading nne at 144, think this skims NC
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:well now GFS shifted way west with jose washing out nearly completely... landfall NC coming
looks like some of the GIV data may have made it into this run
Aric assuming this were to play out with the gfs shifts is it realistic to assume the high wouldn’t reach as far south to start the westerly track sooner? I’m just trying to get an understanding of how the high would be impacted without Jose’s interaction.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
the most realistic model run with jose.. kills jose much faster ( though not as fast as it will likely happen) immediately we see a shift west.. 18z members are probably going to be all over the place. probably from florida to bermuda.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:Can't imagine GIV data is in yet, flight is still in progress and by my look they haven't sampled much of the environment yet.
I'm still of the mind that this won't be an issue for Florida, but further north is absolutely in play. Unless anything changes with the 00z run, with the GIV data, it would take one of the biggest model mess ups we've ever seen to bring this to Florida.
That is certainly ok by me!(it not being a florida issue)
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
If Jose is weaker than the models think in a few days then this is going to hit the SE coastline. Just my opinion there. GFS is close to my thinking, and I believe it will landfall somewhere on the SC coast before it is all said and done. Still a long ways to go though, and plenty of model shifts to come.
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- 'CaneFreak
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
That trough in the west seems to be a key to the downstream ridging as others have noted here earlier. We really need to wait for that energy out west to get sampled. It will be coming onshore of the west coast in the next 24-36 hours. I am wondering if the GFS is handling it properly.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
I also sont see a trough headind to pick up maria.. ridging buiilding over the easter US again.. a LOOP maybe for maria now ? lol
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