ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1761 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:47 pm

Extratropical94 wrote:Center dropsonde - 910 mb / 14 kt

Likely sub-910 at this point...


909 would put this in 10th place all time. Next to pass is Mitch and Dean (tied at 905).
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1762 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:48 pm

What used to be the top 10 before Maria. Ivan is down, who's next?

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Last edited by supercane4867 on Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1763 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:48 pm

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1764 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:50 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Maria is definitely making Irma scared. The pressure could very well drop below Irma's 914mb, but may not have stronger winds depends on how EWRC goes.

And it indeed has: 913 MB at 6 PM and probably still falling! :eek:
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1765 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:50 pm

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 22:19:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°53'N 64°06'W (16.8833N 64.1W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 132kts (~ 151.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 228° at 136kts (From the SW at ~ 156.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 910mb (26.88 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 9 nautical miles


Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 157kts (~ 180.7mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the N (352°) from the flight level center at 22:21:30Z
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1766 Postby hipshot » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:50 pm

supercane4867 wrote:The is CDO is rapidly cooling in recent frames with large area of -80C gray color showing up.
Honestly, this is already more impressive than Irma in terms of satellite presentation.

Image

Image

Looks like St. Croix is going to get head on or darn close to it!!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1767 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:51 pm

abajan wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Maria is definitely making Irma scared. The pressure could very well drop below Irma's 914mb, but may not have stronger winds depends on how EWRC goes.

And it indeed has: 913 MB at 6 PM and probably still falling! :eek:


Probably will be 150 kt and 909 mb at the next update.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1768 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:51 pm

NotSparta wrote:
RL3AO wrote:910 mb would tie it for the top 10 on record in the Atlantic. Incredible to see what the last four weeks have brought to the Atlantic.


Giving 2005 a run for its money lately

And its only mid- September...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1769 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:52 pm

HWRF for tonight... :double:

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1770 Postby Hurrilurker » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:53 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Watching St. Croix webcam right now. Things are starting to look harry there -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Q2CzQclKQc


So much water on the lens, hard to see much. But where it's lit down below you can see the waves are already washing up against the buildings and they still have a long way to go. Not going to be good.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1771 Postby msbee » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:54 pm

supercane4867 wrote:What used to be the top 10 before Maria. Ivan is down, who's next?

Image


so where does Irma stand?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1772 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:54 pm

msbee wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:What used to be the top 10 before Maria. Ivan is down, who's next?

Image


so where does Irma stand?


Irma is tied for 13th with Janet.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1773 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:54 pm

IR Estimated Size

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1774 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:55 pm

supercane4867 wrote:HWRF for tonight... :double:

Image

yeah thats crazy.. and not good..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1775 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:56 pm

St. Croix is going to get into or extremely close to the NE eyewall.

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1776 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:56 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:HWRF for tonight... :double:

Image

yeah thats crazy.. and not good..


200 kt at 850 would be about 160-170 kt at the surface.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1777 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:57 pm

I remember very well when Bryan Peters (former WCM at NWS BMX) got to ride along in a recon flight in Ivan about the time it reached its peak, and noted it was the sixth most intense hurricane on record in the basin.

From sixth to eleventh - what a couple of ridiculous decades. How many more records will Maria topple? For Puerto Rico's sake, hopefully very few...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1778 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:58 pm

909mb. 175 mph

Latest update
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1779 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:58 pm

909 mb officially. Welcome to the top ten Maria....
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1780 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Sep 19, 2017 5:58 pm

175 mph. 909 mb. Two just announced
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