ATL: MARIA - Models

[Ken711]

18z NAVGEM brings Maria north to just offshore Hatteras and then turns it west. The start of models going west?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_conus&prod=prp&dtg=2017091918&set=All

Prediction: Models shift left so far they show it coming ashore south of Melbourne, FL.

Any thing is possible I suppose, I don't see a SE landfall. NC to mid-Atlantic more likely IMO.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z NAVGEM brings Maria north to just offshore Hatteras and then turns it west. The start of models going west?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_conus&prod=prp&dtg=2017091918&set=All

Prediction: Models shift left so far they show it coming ashore south of Melbourne, FL.

That would be monumental. Why do you see the models moving so far West?

[jlauderdal]

18z NAVGEM brings Maria north to just offshore Hatteras and then turns it west. The start of models going west?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_conus&prod=prp&dtg=2017091918&set=All

Prediction: Models shift left so far they show it coming ashore south of Melbourne, FL.

Stop that right now, ...btw, over on the long range thread we are monitoring potential florida trouble from the sw..when the power grid is rebuilt in PR after maria, DC needs to fund something robust and reliable for the citizens, no patchwork job, do it right for the peeps

[bamajammer4eva]

Models were Way Way more concerning for the US Mainland when Irma was near the Virgin Islands. Weather Channel Cone doesn't touch the US and neither does the NHC cone nor any local TV station cone I've seen. The models for Maria are here of course. Here were the models for Irma as she was in nearly the same position of the Virgin Islands

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

Here is a link to the models GFS Ensembles and Euro Ensembles from that the morning of 9/6. They only got worse for the US from there of course.

https://imgur.com/3AudhY4

[txwatcher91]

Models were Way Way more concerning for the US Mainland when Irma was near the Virgin Islands. Weather Channel Cone doesn't touch the US and neither does the NHC cone nor any local TV station cone I've seen. The models for Maria are here of course. Here were the models for Irma as she was in nearly the same position of the Virgin Islands

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
CLOSING IN ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

Here is a link to the models GFS Ensembles and Euro Ensembles from that the morning of 9/6. They only got worse for the US from there of course.

https://imgur.com/3AudhY4

The models also didn’t have the complexity of Jose to figure out with Irma. They do well with simple ridge steering setups but complex ones like this you can see big jumps like we saw today. The models now have this closing very close to the NC coast which is very concerning.

[Ian2401]

So at this point is there really any chance for a FL impact? It doesn't seem very likely from what I am seeing here.

Which is great, FL doesn't need anymore hurricanes!

[Voltron]

So based on how we are seeing models trend back, who has thoughts on the two highs coming together or for that matter the high to the east getting stronger and maria moving more west and then NW and making lamdfall in wilmington NC? I ask bc I keeps seeimg more of a dissapation of Jose coming quicker and that high out east stronger

[Ken711]

So based on how we are seeing models trend back, who has thoughts on the two highs coming together or for that matter the high to the east getting stronger and maria moving more west and then NW and making lamdfall in wilmington NC? I ask bc I keeps seeimg more of a dissapation of Jose coming quicker and that high out east stronger

Yes, it's possible given the recent model trends. I'm thinking a little further north Outer Banks/VA Beach area but a risk for the NC coast in any case.

[floridasun78]

18z NAVGEM brings Maria north to just offshore Hatteras and then turns it west. The start of models going west?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_conus&prod=prp&dtg=2017091918&set=All

CMC and Euro have already started that trend west. Question is how far north does it get before heading in. I think NC/VA border is pretty close to that point. Hopefully, they won't drive inland far.

can you get screen shot my comp say not safe site on firefox ty

[txwatcher91]

With Jose about to crash into some cold waters... I would expect him to weaken a bit faster than models show. They’ve consistently been too strong with him and trending weaker each run...

[Blinhart]

I think tonight with the G-IV data being ingested into the models we will start seeing the models shifting much further West, how far West is the question and for how long before the turn North.

[tolakram]

GFS starts in 20 minutes or so, we will see if the track changes much with the new data.

[chaser1]

So based on how we are seeing models trend back, who has thoughts on the two highs coming together or for that matter the high to the east getting stronger and maria moving more west and then NW and making lamdfall in wilmington NC? I ask bc I keeps seeimg more of a dissapation of Jose coming quicker and that high out east stronger

I think that's quite reasonable

[txwatcher91]

GFS starts in 20 minutes or so, we will see if the track changes much with the new data.

FWIW the NAM came in a bit west and stronger with the ridge, weaker with Jose. It seems models are finally realizing that Jose isn’t going to be a cat 3 over 22C waters.

[chaser1]

waiting..... waiting..... waiting......
I would assume that any significant Gulfstream data ingest would equally impact the meso-scale model runs as well. I kind of expected Jose to have pulled up and out at about 48 hr.'s. That never happened on the 0Z NAM run. Anxiously waiting to see if the updated GFS indicates such a solution, thus building a ridge over the CONUS East coast. Looking at the NAM run, that seems unlikely I suppose. Now that I think about it, I can't really recall any recent storms where the Gulfstream flew to better measure the broader region, where the following model run suddenly or abruptly changed from recent prior model runs

[floridasun78]

look loop of models their shift little to west http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15 look at lat two runs

[chaser1]

While we're all sitting back and waiting for the new GFS 0Z, anyone happen to notice the odd large monsoons "gyre-like" low that the 18z GFS was looking to consume nearly the entire GOM lol?

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[chaser1]

look loop of models their shift little to west http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15 look at lat two runs

I suppose. Kinda looks like the typical windshield wipers effect where the models trend a little east for a couple runs .... and then a little west for a couple. Up to now, they've been pretty steady. I do suspect the models to begin a legitimately more west trend - however not at this time. I suspect we'll begin to see this occur in about 24-36 hours as Jose is further weakened by colder SST's.