ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

The eye might go right over San Juan metro area now. Also hitting more on the east means less time to weaken over land and mountains before hitting san Juan.

If it crosses diagonally not necessarily.

[txwatcher91]

I expect as we see Maria move ashore that the frictional effects and mountains will help push this north similar to what we saw last night over Dominica.

[CrazyC83]

Are there any backup radars for the area, like from the Dominican Republic? I think the French radar is too far away.

[PandaCitrus]

It might only cross the eastern third of PR and exit over San Juan now. Previously the track came in further west and bisected the whole island. Most of the population density is in the eastern third so it's still a horrific track.

[RL3AO]

I expect as we see Maria move ashore that the frictional effects and mountains will help push this north similar to what we saw last night over Dominica.

Why north?

[amawea]

So, after battering Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos, Maria recurves out to sea, right? Or does she? Here's Mark Sudduth's take on the synoptic setup.

Time will tell.

Interesting take on this abajan. Thanks for posting.

[dukeblue219]

Recon is in the air now.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/910313813953712128

[txwatcher91]

I expect as we see Maria move ashore that the frictional effects and mountains will help push this north similar to what we saw last night over Dominica.

Why north?

Following the path of least resistance.. most of the high mountains are on the southern side of PR from W to E. As the center moves inland the N winds hitting against those mountains and lower land to the N may cause it to wobble north. I could be wrong though but it’s definitely a possibility.

[PandaCitrus]

Watching the radar the last 2 hours, the outer eyewall seems to be contracting in towards the inner eye well. I don't think the inner eyewall is going to die out.

[Exalt]

Watching the radar the last 2 hours, the outer eyewall seems to be contracting in towards the inner eye well. I don't think the inner eyewall is going to die out.

Welcome to the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season where nothing is going the way it should be.

[RL3AO]

I expect as we see Maria move ashore that the frictional effects and mountains will help push this north similar to what we saw last night over Dominica.

Why north?

Following the path of least resistance.. most of the high mountains are on the southern side of PR from W to E. As the center moves inland the N winds hitting against those mountains and lower land to the N may cause it to wobble north. I could be wrong though but it’s definitely a possibility.

From my experience, hurricanes interacting with mountains tend to get pulled towards them. It's quite frequent with Hispaniola.

[NotoSans]

Both radar and satellite imagery clearly shows that it is undergoing an ERC.

[SouthDadeFish]

ERC clearly underway now. Outer eyewall velocity starting to pick up on PR radar.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[Aric Dunn]

I expect as we see Maria move ashore that the frictional effects and mountains will help push this north similar to what we saw last night over Dominica.

Why north?

the wind direction would be partially up slope on the north facing mountains. that casuse localized pressure changes. As the inncer core approaches that area it moves around it. it does not always happen but happens more often than not.

[txwatcher91]

Why north?

Following the path of least resistance.. most of the high mountains are on the southern side of PR from W to E. As the center moves inland the N winds hitting against those mountains and lower land to the N may cause it to wobble north. I could be wrong though but it’s definitely a possibility.

From my experience, hurricanes interacting with mountains tend to get pulled towards them. It's quite frequent with Hispaniola.

Yeah it could always do that too... I guess we will find out in the morning. I hope everyone in PR is ready for this..

[supercane4867]

Official wind gust forecast from NWS San Juan. Up to 184mph in higher elevations and 164mph at San Juan.

[Salix88]

Why north?

Following the path of least resistance.. most of the high mountains are on the southern side of PR from W to E. As the center moves inland the N winds hitting against those mountains and lower land to the N may cause it to wobble north. I could be wrong though but it’s definitely a possibility.

From my experience, hurricanes interacting with mountains tend to get pulled towards them. It's quite frequent with Hispaniola.

Some of us here in Hispaniola are concerned that these PR mountains could put Maria on a more western track. We are thinking of what happened with Georges (1998).

[cjrciadt]

Official wind gust forecast from NWS San Juan. Up to 184mph in higher elevations and 164mph at San Juan.