ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLeastcoast]

Gonna try to catch some sleep. Probably my last post for at least a couple of days. Wish me luck.

Sending up prayers of safety for you and all the people in Maria's path.

[Craters]

saved radar loop

Oh, man. Not only the wind, but look at all that rain! When Harvey was sitting around here, at least it came in bands. That's more like a high-velocity blob. It must seem like the rain is never going to end under that...

[Hurrilurker]

St. Croix should be getting the worst of it right about now. Still looks to me like the inner eye wall is going to just barely miss it, although it'll be close.

[Alyono]

Maria is no longer a small system, surge and flooding will be very disastrous on top of the insane winds.

waves are a much greater concern for PR than is true surge

[Hurrilurker]

The gap that currently exists between the inner and outer eye walls could be a real blessing for parts of St. Croix. That's right in the ring that would normally be near the worst of the storm if not for the ERC.

[HDGator]

908mb

000
WTNT65 KNHC 200358
TCUAT5

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1200 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...1200 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REPORTED ON ST. CROIX...

A sustained wind of 75 mph (120 km/h) with a wind gust to 114 mph
(183 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 64.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.81 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake

[Ptarmigan]

Maria is no longer a small system, surge and flooding will be very disastrous on top of the insane winds.

It is going to be really bad period.

[Aric Dunn]

once the eastern side of the outer eyewall deepens the inner eye will fall apart pretty quickly. it is almost there.

[NDG]

Unfortunately it is now a 100% certainty that Puerto Rico will see a direct hit, I was hoping for a last minute right track but the more WNW wobbles continue tonight towards P.R.

I see landfall happening around 6-7 AM, between the towns of Palmas del Mar & Guayama.
IMO.

[Sanibel]

About a 20 mile miss of St Croix with the center...Very lucky tonight...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Nah its not a nightmare its real.

[FLpanhandle91]

May I ask where you all get that radar loop? Feel free to PM it too me to reduce site traffic.

[aperson]

May I ask where you all get that radar loop? Feel free to PM it too me to reduce site traffic.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... /jua/?MR=1

The OEW is starting to look fairly polygonal in recent frames. I assume this is from mesovort activity as the outer eye wall converges.

[FLpanhandle91]

North wobble. Bad for St. Croix.

[Hurrilurker]

May I ask where you all get that radar loop? Feel free to PM it too me to reduce site traffic.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... /jua/?MR=1

The OEW is starting to look fairly polygonal in recent frames. I assume this is from mesovort activity as the outer eye wall converges.

How do you get the 40 frames? I only get a maximum of 10 frames.

[aperson]

May I ask where you all get that radar loop? Feel free to PM it too me to reduce site traffic.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-ra ... /jua/?MR=1

The OEW is starting to look fairly polygonal in recent frames. I assume this is from mesovort activity as the outer eye wall converges.

How do you get the 40 frames? I only get a maximum of 10 frames.

No idea, I assume you may get more if you subscribe to the product. This alternative product allows 25 frames: http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/ra ... o-loop.php

[Aric Dunn]

Luckily at appears as of riht now the ERC will not complete... and if it does it wont have to deepen even more before landfall..

though it is the tropics and I might eat my own words on that but it is running out of time.

[Sanibel]

Eyewall approaching west tip St Croix...

[FLpanhandle91]

It honestly looks like the outer eyewall is just going to keep contracting until it merges with the inner eyewall.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Still cleaning up irritating Irma leftovers at my place, but had to stop by to offer prayers and hope for my U.S. brothers/sisters in Puerto Rico and all the affected Caribbean islands (my fav vacay spot). We will get through this miserable season. You know how better than anyone in the world. Stay safe and we'll send help afterwards to help. God Bless.