ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

using the spotter network.. this guy is on the western tip of st croix

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[Aric Dunn]

inner eye just started to really wobble around..

[txwatcher91]

Per the most recent recon pass it appears the outer eyewall is taking over quickly. The FL winds were about equal both for the small eye and the larger one. Radar seems to indicate the inner eye is weakening quite fast. It might be finished soon...

[sikkar]

EWRC appears to be done but that inner eye wall...

[Aric Dunn]

Per the most recent recon pass it appears the outer eyewall is taking over quickly. The FL winds were about equal both for the small eye and the larger one. Radar seems to indicate the inner eye is weakening quite fast. It might be finished soon...

yes but both winds are much weaker so far.. which is a good thing.. pressure has nt changed much so once the inner eye is gone the outer will contract very fast.. but lets hope that does not happen before landfall

[1900hurricane]

The eye is still warm medium grey per GOES-16 ADT, so the inner probably still has a ways to go before its ready to give up. I've only seen one "normal" eyewall replacement cycle occur where the eye stayed above the WMG threshold, and that occurred November 6-7, 2013 with Super Typhoon Haiyan.

[txwatcher91]

Per the most recent recon pass it appears the outer eyewall is taking over quickly. The FL winds were about equal both for the small eye and the larger one. Radar seems to indicate the inner eye is weakening quite fast. It might be finished soon...

yes but both winds are much weaker so far.. which is a good thing.. pressure has nt changed much so once the inner eye is gone the outer will contract very fast.. but lets hope that does not happen before landfall

Hopefully not but latest radar frames are showing extremely intense bands in the outer eyewall now and cdo is starting to cool fast on the east side...

[PaulR]

Per the most recent recon pass it appears the outer eyewall is taking over quickly. The FL winds were about equal both for the small eye and the larger one. Radar seems to indicate the inner eye is weakening quite fast. It might be finished soon...

yes but both winds are much weaker so far.. which is a good thing.. pressure has nt changed much so once the inner eye is gone the outer will contract very fast.. but lets hope that does not happen before landfall

Hopefully not but latest radar frames are showing extremely intense bands in the outer eyewall now and cdo is starting to cool fast on the east side...

What are winds in the outer eyewall now? I'm not sure I'm clear on that.

[Aric Dunn]

yes but both winds are much weaker so far.. which is a good thing.. pressure has nt changed much so once the inner eye is gone the outer will contract very fast.. but lets hope that does not happen before landfall

Hopefully not but latest radar frames are showing extremely intense bands in the outer eyewall now and cdo is starting to cool fast on the east side...

What are winds in the outer eyewall now? I'm not sure I'm clear on that.

so far cat 4

[Aric Dunn]

watching some long radar loops.. not much structually has changed in the last 2 hours which is good.. ERC is taking time... good news.

[FireRat]

Maria has been such a fascinating yet scary storm to watch, unbelievable how soon after Irma we got another Cat 5 monster in the same general region. This part of the basin has been primed this season, I bet seeing these 2017 antics are the closest thing to what it would've been like to watch the 1780 season if modern technology existed then. Truly amazing stuff...

My prayers go out tonight for those affected by Maria, and really pray and hope for some sort of miracle to save Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from a catastrophic strike Wednesday. Hopefully the EWRC slows this thing down some, and it doesn't pull a Haiyan.

[cheezyWXguy]

watching some long radar loops.. not much structually has changed in the last 2 hours which is good.. ERC is taking time... good news.

It's taking time, but it's definitely progressing. Seeing more wobbles on radar as it begins to revolve around the outer eye. Also seeing on radar that velocities in the outer, at least aloft, are now higher than the inner in both the NE and SW quadrants. It may not be able to finish the ERC completely by landfall, but it is going to be too close for comfort...not that there's any comfort in a cat4+ hurricane approaching that has just significantly expanded in size

[Hurrilurker]

Almost a perfect donut shape double eye wall right now on radar. Still no sign of the inner wall collapsing though, although it does look a little thinner so maybe soon.

[Aric Dunn]

watching some long radar loops.. not much structually has changed in the last 2 hours which is good.. ERC is taking time... good news.

It's taking time, but it's definitely progressing. Seeing more wobbles on radar as it begins to revolve around the outer eye. Also seeing on radar that velocities in the outer, at least aloft, are now higher than the inner in both the NE and SW quadrants. It may not be able to finish the ERC completely by landfall, but it is going to be too close for comfort...not that there's any comfort in a cat4+ hurricane approaching that has just significantly expanded in size

yeah, luckily it really does not look like it will have time to finish and deepen. the inner eyewall needs to collapse before the outer eyewal l can contract anymore. and thus deepen back to cat 5.

[aperson]

IEW is starting to fill in consistently on radar. Doesn't look like it will hold out much longer.



That was also a pretty extreme trochoidal arc to the north. SW St. Croix just keeps getting punished by that outer eye wall.

[chaser1]

Maria has been such a fascinating yet scary storm to watch, unbelievable how soon after Irma we got another Cat 5 monster in the same general region. This part of the basin has been primed this season, I bet seeing these 2017 antics are the closest thing to what it would've been like to watch the 1780 season if modern technology existed then. Truly amazing stuff..

Just makes me chuckle though when I think about SO many silly comments just weeks ago from several posters about "how boring the season was" or "sure there's named storms, but they're all garbage". Just in case they're reading this.... "No, the season ain't over yet"

[shawn67]

And just like that the space between the inner and outer eyewalls begins to clear out...amazing.

[Hurrilurker]

Inner eye wall now has a large break in it in the southeast quad. This could be it.

[aperson]

Really large instability between IEW and OEW vortices now. I'd expect some more chaotic motion and a rapid clearing of the OEW

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest IR frame shows -70s wrapping around the outer eyewall, while the inner is only holding -60s. Again, way too close for comfort