ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2141 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:56 am

doppler velocities. major hurricane force winds are about to come ashore on eastern PR...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2142 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:56 am

OEW higher wind max is starting to tear up the IEW rapidly. Can easily see it on radar alongside the increasingly ovular shape of the IEW

Image

With the OEW leaving St. Croix now it's off to the races to see if Maria can clear out in time. Here's to hoping it continues to struggle.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2143 Postby shawn67 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:59 am

hurricaneCW wrote:
shawn67 wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:
This is great news, I think Puerto Rico is going to be just fine and there's still plenty of time for her to weaken further, maybe even to a low-mid Cat 3.

My stomach flips when people make broad declaratory posts like this... :(


I think it's important to be optimistic and given recon found winds near 140, it could definitely get down to a 3 if the trend continues. San Juan should see lower winds than at landfall too.


I think it is more crucial to be objective... and to not give those people who come to this website in desperate circumstances an excuse to not follow and comply with what has been advised by the NHC, Federal, Commonwealth, and local authorities.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2144 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:01 am

aperson wrote:OEW higher wind max is starting to tear up the IEW rapidly. Can easily see it on radar alongside the increasingly ovular shape of the IEW

Image

With the OEW leaving St. Croix now it's off to the races to see if Maria can clear out in time. Here's to hoping it continues to struggle.


Agreed. Next frame after this loop shows the inner eye looking even more warped, and practically open to the east
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2145 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:02 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
aperson wrote:OEW higher wind max is starting to tear up the IEW rapidly. Can easily see it on radar alongside the increasingly ovular shape of the IEW

Image

With the OEW leaving St. Croix now it's off to the races to see if Maria can clear out in time. Here's to hoping it continues to struggle.


Agreed. Next frame after this loop shows the inner eye looking even more warped, and practically open to the east

it is falling apart fast.. but not fast enough luckily.. still interesting to watch.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2146 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:04 am

If you check the "Hide clutter" switch on the radar you can see the inner eyewall more clearly.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2147 Postby otowntiger » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:05 am

aperson wrote:
otowntiger wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
yeah, luckily it really does not look like it will have time to finish and deepen. the inner eyewall needs to collapse before the outer eyewal l can contract anymore. and thus deepen back to cat 5.
unfortunately it won't make much difference at this point. What is about to hit PR will be very bad regardless if it is a strong cat 4 or low end cat 5. It really could just about be the worst case scenario for them at this point.


It definitely makes a huge difference. NOAA calculates wind speed increase as having an 8th power relationship with monetary damage estimates (source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropi ... _wheel.pdf). Structural damage is absolutely not a linear thing.
I totally understand that. I know that the increase in winds is an exponential factor increase. Going from 140 to 175 is much bigger than a 25% increase but a much higher percentage due to the physics of wind force. But in this case, looking at the angle of approach with regard to rain, mudslides, storm surge and dangerous/ deadly winds we are looking at a significant disaster. The specifics of the EWRC and the maximum extreme winds are confined to a relatively small area anyway. How often do you hear the NHC say don't focus on the point/ exact center track? In this case if 140 mph takes down a building does it matter that the winds could have been any stronger? Apart from the minutiae of the science I'm talking about the bigger humanitarian disaster that will unfold shortly. I'm sure it really goes without saying.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2148 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:05 am

the IR satelite still has not even shown any contraction... radar is showing the low level structure collapsing but over all the ERC still has more time.. good for PR
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2149 Postby Blown Away » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:09 am

On IR satellite Maria looks to miss the next forecast point to the east...
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2150 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:11 am

Blown Away wrote:On IR satellite Maria looks to miss the next forecast point to the east...


Can you post a source for reference? IR is only showing the inner eye wall which is not necessarily centered in the outer eye wall. You'll also need to adjust SW to account for the parallax effect
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2151 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:13 am

Aric Dunn wrote:the IR satelite still has not even shown any contraction... radar is showing the low level structure collapsing but over all the ERC still has more time.. good for PR


No doubt, good bet that there will be little to no intensifying before landfall. However, of the inner eye collapses upon landfall, would it result in more efficient mixing of winds down to the surface?
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2152 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:15 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the IR satelite still has not even shown any contraction... radar is showing the low level structure collapsing but over all the ERC still has more time.. good for PR


No doubt, good bet that there will be little to no intensifying before landfall. However, of the inner eye collapses upon landfall, would it result in more efficient mixing of winds down to the surface?



yes. if it does collapse. the outer eye will immediately be able to contract more and pressure will fall and the winds will mix down.


though it has about an hour.. so not likely.


outer eyewall already crossing land..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2153 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:19 am

se quad support about 130 mph right now.

070630 1732N 06506W 6965 02780 9627 +122 +122 219110 114 113 037 03
070700 1733N 06507W 6963 02754 9600 +113 //// 221098 105 120 016 05
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2154 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:21 am

NW quad about the same..

still a cat 4 for sure. 130 to 140 mph
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2155 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:23 am

pressure up to about 915 mb..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2156 Postby CryHavoc » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:25 am

hurricaneCW wrote:
shawn67 wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:
This is great news, I think Puerto Rico is going to be just fine and there's still plenty of time for her to weaken further, maybe even to a low-mid Cat 3.

My stomach flips when people make broad declaratory posts like this... :(


I think it's important to be optimistic and given recon found winds near 140, it could definitely get down to a 3 if the trend continues. San Juan should see lower winds than at landfall too.


Optimism in the face of one of the most intense storms the Atlantic ocean has seen in recorded history can kill people.

Furthermore, unless you have credentials or some basis for why you're saying this, you shouldn't make factually inaccurate posts on a forum particularly when we're in the early stages of a landfalling hurricane. You accomplish nothing by posting false information.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2157 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:34 am

after 3 passes .. it is safe to say it is at 140 mph tops.

inner eye not giving up.. landfall cat4 in about 2 hours. looks about right..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2158 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:37 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:the IR satelite still has not even shown any contraction... radar is showing the low level structure collapsing but over all the ERC still has more time.. good for PR


No doubt, good bet that there will be little to no intensifying before landfall. However, of the inner eye collapses upon landfall, would it result in more efficient mixing of winds down to the surface?



yes. if it does collapse. the outer eye will immediately be able to contract more and pressure will fall and the winds will mix down.


though it has about an hour.. so not likely.


outer eyewall already crossing land..


If she does go over PR with the eye going right in between the 2 mountain areas, wouldn't this actually give a chance for the winds that are aloft 5000 feet to work their way down to the lower level even faster. I wouldn't be surprised to see the eye continue contracting back down to a pinhole eye while over PR because of the mountains.

My other question is way out there and has no scientific backing as of right now. But if she keeps her inner structure and doesn't lose much energy and somehow does make it into the center of the GoM (very unlikely, me the doomsdayer even says it is only about 5% chance) wouldn't she have the chance to become the baddest B**CH ever and have a pressure sub 870mb and a wind speed over 200MPH.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2159 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:39 am

Blinhart wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
No doubt, good bet that there will be little to no intensifying before landfall. However, of the inner eye collapses upon landfall, would it result in more efficient mixing of winds down to the surface?



yes. if it does collapse. the outer eye will immediately be able to contract more and pressure will fall and the winds will mix down.


though it has about an hour.. so not likely.


outer eyewall already crossing land..


If she does go over PR with the eye going right in between the 2 mountain areas, wouldn't this actually give a chance for the winds that are aloft 5000 feet to work their way down to the lower level even faster. I wouldn't be surprised to see the eye continue contracting back down to a pinhole eye while over PR because of the mountains.

My other question is way out there and has no scientific backing as of right now. But if she keeps her inner structure and doesn't lose much energy and somehow does make it into the center of the GoM (very unlikely, me the doomsdayer even says it is only about 5% chance) wouldn't she have the chance to become the baddest B**CH ever and have a pressure sub 870mb and a wind speed over 200MPH.


not even going to try and answer that second question....

the higher terrian will see higher winds.. but they are still no where what they were.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2160 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:after 3 passes .. it is safe to say it is at 140 mph tops.

inner eye not giving up.. landfall cat4 in about 2 hours. looks about right..


The thing is though, there is only half an inner eyewall left now. It looks pretty substantially different than it did an hour ago, and 2 more hours could allow for further changes.

And to anyone reading my posts, please don't think I'm -removed- a strengthening storm on PR. I am however concerned that optimism or downplaying the event can cause complacency, and believe that all variables and scenarios should be considered
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