ATL: MARIA - Models

[Alyono]

if Maria takes that track, it will be weak.

Would be going over the cold wake of Jose

[txwatcher91]

if Maria takes that track, it will be weak.

Would be going over the cold wake of Jose

Any idea what causes her to take that hard NW turn by hour 168?

[xironman]

By hour 168 the Euro turns Maria hard to the NW. This still might be really close...

The surface high over the Maritines could trap it.

[blp]

I think this ULL will be huge in the track forecast. It is forecast by the GFS to dip SW into the Gulf. So far I don't see that happening.

[BYG Jacob]

if Maria takes that track, it will be weak.

Would be going over the cold wake of Jose

The water Jose upwelled would be replaced at that point right?

[BYG Jacob]

I think this ULL will be huge in the track forecast. It is forecast by the GFS to dip SW into the Gulf. So far I don't see that happening.

Agree, looks like its moving off to the NE

[Alyono]

if Maria takes that track, it will be weak.

Would be going over the cold wake of Jose

The water Jose upwelled would be replaced at that point right?

probably not. Can take a few weeks. In 1995, Marilyn had issues with Luis' wake. Jeanne had issues with Frances' wake

[hurricaneCW]

Maria's track is highly dependent on what Jose does, he can either weaken more rapidly and possibly send Maria towards the Carolinas or he can remain an entity and get sent all the way towards the coast, which would pull Maria in Sandy style. If he doesn't get far enough west and doesn't weaken as quickly, which is what the models are currently indicating then Maria will be sent OTS after getting close to the coast.

It's more complicated than normal because models haven't been able to get a handle on Jose very well due to the anomalous blocking pattern.

[ronjon]

That midwest trough in the 12z Euro at 216 hrs shreds whats left of Maria. It also could mark the beginning of the end to this hellish atlantic basin season. Would likely drive a strong cold front all the way through Florida.

[tolakram]

End of Euro run. Looks like ET transition and out to sea?

[BYG Jacob]

if Maria takes that track, it will be weak.

Would be going over the cold wake of Jose

The water Jose upwelled would be replaced at that point right?

probably not. Can take a few weeks. In 1995, Marilyn had issues with Luis' wake. Jeanne had issues with Frances' wake

Really? I thought it usually only took a few days, guess not.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

After DR the next close call is the SE Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

I think this ULL will be huge in the track forecast. It is forecast by the GFS to dip SW into the Gulf. So far I don't see that happening.

Is that the initial ULL that turns Maria away from the SE?

[Michele B]

After DR the next close call is the SE Bahamas.

Looks like she's planning to skip them.

[Blinhart]

Just looked at the 12Z GFS, those are some strong Canadian Clippers coming across the Northern part of the Country.

[Ian2401]

I think this ULL will be huge in the track forecast. It is forecast by the GFS to dip SW into the Gulf. So far I don't see that happening.

Which would mean what exactly?

[jlauderdal]

That midwest trough in the 12z Euro at 216 hrs shreds whats left of Maria. It also could mark the beginning of the end to this hellish atlantic basin season. Would likely drive a strong cold front all the way through Florida.

a cold front all the way through the peninsula in september would be very rare.

[BYG Jacob]

I think this ULL will be huge in the track forecast. It is forecast by the GFS to dip SW into the Gulf. So far I don't see that happening.

Which would mean what exactly?

Ridging might build back in and steer Maria into the FL coast/GoM

[ronjon]

That midwest trough in the 12z Euro at 216 hrs shreds whats left of Maria. It also could mark the beginning of the end to this hellish atlantic basin season. Would likely drive a strong cold front all the way through Florida.

a cold front all the way through the peninsula in september would be very rare.

LOL..maybe not S FL..but it would be Sept 30th. Check this out...BTW, GFS so far does not agree.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017092012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0