ATL: MARIA - Models

[gtalum]

I think this ULL will be huge in the track forecast. It is forecast by the GFS to dip SW into the Gulf. So far I don't see that happening.

Which would mean what exactly?

Ridging might build back in and steer Maria into the FL coast/GoM

You're talking a ~600 mile error by the NHC on day 3 for Maria to make the GoM. ~500 miles for it to hit Florida anywhere.

I don't see that happening. Their average error at 72 hours is about 75 miles. Maria could be an OBX threat, but I really don't see Florida at this point.

[blp]

According to GFS, this is where that ULL needs to be in 72hrs which would put it in a position to help to induce a flow helping to move it North.

[AutoPenalti]

According to GFS, this is where that ULL needs to be in 72hrs which would put it in a position to help to induce a flow helping to move it North.

Wow, it’s not even dipping to the SW when you look at WV... you’re right.

Maybe it’s the one that’s in Texas dipping into the gulf right now?

[Aric Dunn]

Weird.. the last 4 images.. toggle \

notice anything ?


http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15

there is also another GIV flight going so the 18z models will have some more data.. but 00z tonight full data.

though I cant find their flight path right they are going through the carribean

[Aric Dunn]

Jose is not slowing down and is already at the 00z position. looks like it will be going more NE than the NHC forecast

[BYG Jacob]

Which would mean what exactly?

Ridging might build back in and steer Maria into the FL coast/GoM

You're talking a ~600 mile error by the NHC on day 3 for Maria to make the GoM. ~500 miles for it to hit Florida anywhere.

I don't see that happening. Their average error at 72 hours is about 75 miles. Maria could be an OBX threat, but I really don't see Florida at this point.

I wasn't trying to paint the NHC as wrong, just saying its possible fore ridging to build in and steer Maria more west. That was all.

[RL3AO]

According to GFS, this is where that ULL needs to be in 72hrs which would put it in a position to help to induce a flow helping to move it North.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/4cjDO2s.jpg[mg]

Wow, it’s not even dipping when you look at WV... you’re right.

Maybe it’s the one that’s in Texas dipping into the gulf right now?

It is. Remember that the water vapor channel there is usually showing mid-levels and not the upper levels where the trough is digging.

[txwatcher91]

Jose is not slowing down and is already at the 00z position. looks like it will be going more NE than the NHC forecast

NE or NW? The spaghetti plots animation you posted seemed to indicate a closer to the NC coast solution and some loops in there too.

['CaneFreak]

Are you saying what I think you are saying? Mmmhmmm. Yep. Unfortunately I agree. The data is becoming more conclusive that we are not out of the woods yet. More watching.

Weird.. the last 4 images.. toggle \

notice anything ?


http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 7&title=15

[BYG Jacob]

Jose is decaying very rapidly right now. Deep convection is gone, he might not be much more than a swirl later tonight. And that means Maria might not get pulled north, and that ridging might build back in over Maria.

[gatorcane]

Florida is in the clear. But mid-atlantic north is still a question. Still looks like it recurves away from continental US but there is a small chance it does not. Notice the ECMWF plot is now on this graphic.

[RL3AO]

Jose is decaying very rapidly right now. Deep convection is gone, he might not be much more than a swirl later tonight. And that means Maria might not get pulled north, and that ridging might build back in over Maria.

The circulation will probably stick around longer than you'd think. With nothing really to steer it away or advect it downstream. It's happy to conserve vorticity while it slowly spins now.

[crimi481]

Is that ridging building in just north of Maria?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

Jose is decaying very rapidly right now. Deep convection is gone, he might not be much more than a swirl later tonight. And that means Maria might not get pulled north, and that ridging might build back in over Maria.

The circulation will probably stick around longer than you'd think. With nothing really to steer it away or advect it downstream. It's happy to conserve vorticity while it slowly spins now.

IT is however in the next few hours going to passing well to the NE of tomorrow 12z forecast postion unless it slows down now... at the moment it has not slowed down.

[johngaltfla]

That midwest trough in the 12z Euro at 216 hrs shreds whats left of Maria. It also could mark the beginning of the end to this hellish atlantic basin season. Would likely drive a strong cold front all the way through Florida.

a cold front all the way through the peninsula in september would be very rare.

But welcome.

[seahawkjd]

Jose is decaying very rapidly right now. Deep convection is gone, he might not be much more than a swirl later tonight. And that means Maria might not get pulled north, and that ridging might build back in over Maria.

The circulation will probably stick around longer than you'd think. With nothing really to steer it away or advect it downstream. It's happy to conserve vorticity while it slowly spins now.

IT is however in the next few hours going to passing well to the NE of tomorrow 12z forecast postion unless it slows down now... at the moment it has not slowed down.

Aric, what would that tend to do to the future track?

[Aric Dunn]

The circulation will probably stick around longer than you'd think. With nothing really to steer it away or advect it downstream. It's happy to conserve vorticity while it slowly spins now.

IT is however in the next few hours going to passing well to the NE of tomorrow 12z forecast postion unless it slows down now... at the moment it has not slowed down.

Aric, what would that tend to do to the future track?

not all to much unless it makes it past 66 to 67 west which is the farthest east model.. then we will know something is differnet.

its approaching 68 west in the next few hours.. which is as far east as the NHC has it going.

[NJWxHurricane]

I think this ULL will be huge in the track forecast. It is forecast by the GFS to dip SW into the Gulf. So far I don't see that happening.

Which would mean what exactly?

Ridging might build back in and steer Maria into the FL coast/GoM

what about jose?

[RL3AO]

^ My only point being is that Jose will maintain a circulation (that slowly weakens) for a number of days. This won't just be gone by tomorrow.

[NJWxHurricane]

^ My only point being is that Jose will maintain a circulation (that slowly weakens) for a number of days. This won't just be gone by tomorrow.

agreed