2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[WeatherEmperor]

So the 12z GFS continues to show a big gyre of low pressure in the WC in the 10-14 day window. It is outside the window of the Euro and Canadian so we have to wait until this weekend to see if they start showing this too.

I think they key is where does the base of the low pressure gyre setup? Is it the Epac side or the WC side? I am thinking that since the atmosphere is more and more resembling La Nina, the base would setup on the WC side because sinking air is more likely in the Epac in these conditions.

The last key point is in regards to Florida, usually storms that have hit Florida in October usually form in the second or third week of October not the first week. Typically the late season cold fronts that push tropical cyclones ENE into Florida show up after the middle of the month. Does anybody think this matters or maybe not?


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[SEASON_CANCELED]

Its definately the season for the SW Carib. its frothy and its energy is untapped

usually this much model storms are not an anomaly.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF still lowering pressures in the SW caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

ECMWF still lowering pressures in the SW caribbean.

Yes I just noticed that too. If the Euro and other models continue this lowering of pressures in furute runs going into this weekend, we need to keep a very close eye.


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[gatorcane]

Wet phase of MJO arriving in the Western Caribbean and Eastern EPAC next week. You would think there will be some kind of development either in the Western Caribbean or EPAC and if the big Eastern CONUS trough materializes as the global models suggest, it could pull the area northward:

[otowntiger]

I guess there have been no more interesting model runs for this area since this thread is dead.

[gatorcane]

Nothing of real significance in the model runs the past 24 hours except some hints of lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean. I am pretty confident a major hurricane will develop in the Caribbean (quite possibly Western Caribbean) sometime in October.

[tolakram]

I guess there have been no more interesting model runs for this area since this thread is dead.

There were 8 posts yesterday, define dead?

[AutoPenalti]

Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm?

[Hurricaneman]

Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm?

Pretty much

[otowntiger]

Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm?

Pretty much

Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads.

[psyclone]

Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm?

Pretty much

Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads.

A little horse sense goes a long way here. Models have been hinting at lowering pressures in the distant future which is consistent with climo (especially in an active season) along with a favorable phase of the mjo. It is highly probable that this region will produce in the next 40 days.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS forms something around 264 hrs near Panama

[gatorcane]

Strongest signal yet from GEFS:

[WeatherEmperor]

Strongest signal yet from GEFS:

[[/img]

Here is the 384hr forecast of the GEFS. I know it is total fantasy...but the important thing is to look at the signals of lowering pressures...and that is what this shows. Lets see what happens in the next few days if this continues



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[jlauderdal]

Did the GFS drop development of the carribean storm?

Pretty much

Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads.

Floridians carrying the weight of this site in the face of irma...to be fair our friends in the carribean are in full.recovery mode as we were after irma...texas season.about over...plenty of recovery operations all.over sofla these days, power, tree trimmers and debris pickup..i.have daily.power outages, less than a minute but the grid isnt stable

[Bocadude85]

Pretty much

Well there you go. So I was right! No Florida threat usually = 'dead' threads.

Floridians carrying the weight of this site in the face of irma...to be fair our friends in the carribean are in full.recovery mode as we were after irma...texas season.about over...plenty of recovery operations all.over sofla these days, power, tree trimmers and debris pickup..i.have daily.power outages, less than a minute but the grid isnt stable

We also continue to lose power, like you said its brief but still happening on a regular basis since Irma.

[1900hurricane]

The western Caribbean has me intrigued around/just after the turn of the month. Pretty good ensemble signal for something despite the range.

[gatorcane]

The Euro ensembles are showing lowering pressure across the Western Caribbean in around 9 to 10 days:

[SEASON_CANCELED]

yeah that part of the Caribbean has alot of untapped energy for a big one up towards the eastern gulf coast. Just the lowering pressures....watch it very closely.