ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

126 kt flight level winds. 100 SFMR. 951mb.

[AutoPenalti]

Maria is crossing the 70 degree longitudinal line, still heading NW at brisk pace.

[drezee]

She is tracking a little SW of the forecast 0z was supposed to be 21N 69.9W ...recon says 20.8N 70W. Just watch it...

Still more WNW than NW...

B. 20 deg 21 min N
069 deg 20 min W

B. 20 deg 56 min N
070 deg 09 min W

35 min N. And 49 min ..... Watch her...

21.6N and 70.4W was supposed to be 06z

[Alyono]

getting blasted by shear now

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde fell thru 156kt winds aloft and 128kt just 2mb above the surface an hour ago. The pressure was 957 in the eye drop, but the winds are really ramping this evening.

[FLpanhandle91]

So judging by the heading of recon diving back toward the eye, it would appear that Maria still has a more westerly component.

[1900hurricane]

The 00Z MKJP sounding still has the 25 kt or so southwesterly flow in the 200-300 mb level, or a little below anvil level. The upper level trough extending from the western Caribbean through the Bahamas is responsible for this flow, and it will probably continue to impinge upon Maria.



(University of Wyoming text list isn't loading for me, so no cool SHARPpy skew-T like on the previous page unfortunately)

[Alyono]

not sure why Avila said conditions are favorable when there is shear that is as clear as day. Shows up on the satellite as well as the soundings

[Audrey2Katrina]

Only way to learn is to ask. I've been following these boards off and on since Katrina wiped out my home in 2005. I've gotten pretty good at keeping up with NHC reports, and even reading a lot of Recon data (esp. Vortex info) but it's been pick up this and that when you can... I see a lot of "data" only pages, so I don't post on them, but the one set of data I would like to understand better is the box-setting of numbers that read across from left-to-right with several sets of numbers. Some I can guess indicate location (lat/long) and possible wind speeds (although not sure if sfc or fl) and atmospheric pressure in mb. but there's much more than that in this row of data, and I'd appreciate anyone who can help, giving me some detail on what these rows of data mean (if possible from left to right)

031000 1719N 06445W 6963 02357 9075 +215 +102 011002 022 030 001 00

I'm guessing the first might have something to do with time, possibly Z, obviously the next two data are coordinates -- I don't know what the next two sets indicate and I'm guessing that 9075 is atm. pressure of 907.5 mb. I have NO idea what the +215 and +102 indicate (possibly directional and/or SFC wind speeds?) and the next sets of data I am not sure of at all and would prefer not to guess. Any help is appreciated!

A2K

there is somewhere on Storm 2K the info but can't remember where the link is - as almost every year I ask same question, but I wrote it on piece of paper which I use. Anyway NHC has a document called National Hurricane Operation Plan PDF link below
http://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/FCM-P12-2017.pdf Chapter 5 is devoted entirely to the reconnaissance aircraft data missions. & Appendix G explains the message formats and data codes.
hope that helps

Thanks... Section/Chapter 5 was what I already knew, (How to interpret VDM) but you were right, Appendix G was extremely helpful in deciphering these codes. I pretty much was right on what the data would be, just not certain how it was shown --now I know! -- much appreciated.

[FLpanhandle91]

025400 2117N 07035W 6973 02928 9817 +106 +106 054101 106 089 051 00
025430 2116N 07034W 6950 02934 9795 +108 +108 062106 109 093 037 00
025500 2115N 07032W 6968 02892 9762 +114 +114 066097 104 097 029 00
025530 2114N 07031W 6967 02869 9724 +120 +120 064073 104 100 018 00
025600 2113N 07030W 6971 02848 9695 +121 +121 055060 062 103 012 00
025630 2112N 07029W 6978 02817 9660 +125 +124 061061 063 108 009 00
025700 2111N 07028W 6969 02811 9614 +142 +112 060055 063 110 007 00
025730 2110N 07027W 6967 02802 9575 +172 +095 060044 051 097 007 03
025800 2109N 07025W 6963 02800 9565 +177 +097 062032 039 069 003 00
025830 2107N 07024W 6969 02787 9561 +173 +099 058019 027 037 001 00
025900 2105N 07023W 6966 02791 9568 +165 +098 066012 016 020 001 03
025930 2104N 07022W 6973 02779 9571 +161 +096 072008 009 009 001 00
030000 2102N 07022W 6965 02790 9573 +158 +102 052005 007 011 001 03
030030 2101N 07021W 6967 02789 9575 +153 +109 312003 004 012 001 00
030100 2059N 07020W 6977 02774 9568 +159 +106 268008 010 015 001 03
030130 2058N 07018W 6966 02783 9570 +154 +108 258012 015 018 004 00
030200 2056N 07017W 6976 02770 9547 +175 +097 249019 021 018 004 00
030230 2055N 07016W 6965 02786 9546 +181 +093 243021 022 024 002 00
030300 2054N 07014W 6967 02787 9544 +191 +080 231031 035 037 002 00
030330 2052N 07013W 6967 02799 9553 +190 +081 229044 050 053 003 00
030400 2051N 07011W 6968 02807 9574 +179 +091 225055 059 066 001 00

Still packing a hell of a punch despite the sheared appearance. Also looks like a solid jog to the west.

[1900hurricane]

Pressure has risen each pass. Coupled with the slight degradation in overall presentation (especially the cooling of the eye), it does appear that the shear is presently impinging on Maria.

[PandaCitrus]

Levittown, Puerto Rico helicopter footage. Extreme flood damage and significant wind damage to roofs. This is a suburb of San Juan.

 https://twitter.com/Caramba60/status/911061880034250752

[Rail Dawg]

The 00Z MKJP sounding still has the 25 kt or so southwesterly flow in the 200-300 mb level, or a little below anvil level. The upper level trough extending from the western Caribbean through the Bahamas is responsible for this flow, and it will probably continue to impinge upon Maria.



(University of Wyoming text list isn't loading for me, so no cool SHARPpy skew-T like on the previous page unfortunately)

I used to launch weather balloons and do the Skew-T Log P by hand lol.

[PandaCitrus]

I wish we had access to Puerto Rico radar to find out what happened around Levitown, perhaps some microbursts or metovortices and tornadic activity. This is some extreme damage. Some of the worst I've seen in all of Puerto Rico.

[Alyono]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/us/h ... ml?mcubz=1

8 people confirmed dead in Toa Baja

This is a town along the river that had that infamous 75 foot reading yesterday

[floridasun78]

Levittown, Puerto Rico helicopter footage. Extreme flood damage and significant wind damage to roofs. This is a suburb of San Juan.

 https://twitter.com/Caramba60/status/911061880034250752

i watch him do tornadoes chase look only way he could show what happen in PR By air

[Alyono]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/us/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico.html?mcubz=1

8 people confirmed dead in Toa Baja

This is a town along the river that had that infamous 75 foot reading yesterday

hearing from a friend from Puerto Rico that this flooding occurred TODAY, not yesterday.

[FLpanhandle91]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/us/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico.html?mcubz=1

8 people confirmed dead in Toa Baja

This is a town along the river that had that infamous 75 foot reading yesterday

hearing from a friend from Puerto Rico that this flooding occurred TODAY, not yesterday.

From precipitation today you think?

[Alyono]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/us/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico.html?mcubz=1

8 people confirmed dead in Toa Baja

This is a town along the river that had that infamous 75 foot reading yesterday

hearing from a friend from Puerto Rico that this flooding occurred TODAY, not yesterday.

From precipitation today you think?

that's part of it

[lilybeth]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/us/hurricane-maria-puerto-rico.html?mcubz=1

8 people confirmed dead in Toa Baja

This is a town along the river that had that infamous 75 foot reading yesterday

hearing from a friend from Puerto Rico that this flooding occurred TODAY, not yesterday.

Maria seems to have been catastrophic for PR....these videos and photos are awful. I am wondering if mudslides could continue to be a concern. Either way, I am thankful if Maria stays within the NHC cone she would seem to be projected not to have a direct hit on any more land. Of course I understand the cone is not infallible but I would love if she would just deintensify and fish out into the Atlantic