2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

CMC jumping on board with development.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Euro has lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean at the end of the run. If anything is going to form it will be a few days after the run ends so it can take time to consolidate.






Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro seems like it’ll have a better handle on things as the GFS is still off and on all over the place.

[HurricaneFan]

I also noticed an interesting trend from the GFS model in that in every run since the one shown to the top of the last page,it develops a Tropical Wave just to the SE of the Windward Islands on late Wednesday Oct 4th.

From there different runs had some range of Tracks,one Riding up the Island Chain, one grazing the Islands on a more Easterly Track before going out to sea(Maybe,the run ends too soon too know),one a little more west up the Island Chain before moving just north of west grazing Puerto Rico and the last one have it much more South, strengthening before hitting Haiti.

There seems to be a little variation in intensity run to run, but seems to agree to the idea of it not being that strong at least in the Eastern Caribbean Sea and Islands(Looks like a Tropical Storm on some runs), but it strengthens more as it starts to move away from that area.

I also noticed the timing is very consistent so far on the Model on developing by late Wednesday Oct 4th and moving through or grazing the Islands Thursday Oct 5th.
The time have not been pushed back at all.

Are there any other Models that sees what the GFS sees? There is a Tropical Wave approaching the West Coast of Africa now,is that the Wave it is picking up on?

[gatorcane]

EPS consistent with lower pressure anomalies over the Western Caribbean days 8-10:

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/911306527121854464

[WeatherEmperor]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/911306527121854464

As it pertains to Florida, wouldnt it be to early for anything forming in the SW Caribbean to get pulled that far north? Usually the so called season ending fronts that curve tropical cyclones into Florida dont come down to Florida's area until the 2nd or 3rd week of October right??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[HurricaneFan]

The 12z Euro has lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean at the end of the run. If anything is going to form it will be a few days after the run ends so it can take time to consolidate.






Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Is the Euro picking up on the area that the GFS is in my previous post?,because it looks like just two days before Wednesday it is showing lower pressures in the 2nd pick on the extreme SE corner of the pick.And it is in a position where it would can conceivably end up in the same position on Wednesday Oct 4th like the GFS shows.Any other model showing something like this?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS starts development in the SW Caribbean at 234 hours and takes the system NW then N then NNE. Classic October track. Development starts near the area the ECMWF has lowering pressures.

[johngaltfla]

18Z GFS starts development in the SW Caribbean at 234 hours and takes the system NW then N then NNE. Classic October track. Development starts near the area the ECMWF has lowering pressures.

Just say no.

This would be a nice time for the long range GFS to be wrong again.

[northjaxpro]

Man, no truer words have been spoken!!!!!!

I pray to God this does not happen! This time of year, we look at this area for development unfortunately.

I am just so ready for this nightmare hurricane season to end!!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

The GEFS is a little too playful this run

[blp]

The GEFS is a little too playful this run

[]https://i.imgur.com/bPe4EjL.png[/img]

That is the strongest signal we have seen. It has been flip flopping from EPAC to W. Carrib. between runs so not sure yet if this real or GFS overhype. But considering the ENSO state and background signal it would seem plausible.

[LarryWx]

:eek:

 https://twitter.com/nwscpc/status/911306527121854464

As it pertains to Florida, wouldnt it be to early for anything forming in the SW Caribbean to get pulled that far north? Usually the so called season ending fronts that curve tropical cyclones into Florida dont come down to Florida's area until the 2nd or 3rd week of October right??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

No.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/911344410058743808

[TheStormExpert]

Here is this evenings 18z GFS storm with development starting just below 10 days. Takes a track that is in ways similar to Wilma (2005) with a likely NE heading at or after 384hrs. Interested to see if tonight's 00z run shows it or drops it as the GFS has been off and on with where and when development occurs in its long-range for several days now.

[HurricaneFan]

Here is this evenings 18z GFS storm with development starting just below 10 days. Takes a track that is in ways similar to Wilma (2005) with a likely NE heading at or after 384hrs. Interested to see if tonight's 00z run shows it or drops it as the GFS has been off and on with where and when development occurs in its long-range for several days now.

Another system can actually be seen on the 1st pic grazing the Island Chain on Thursday Oct 5th,which is one of a few Tracks the GFS takes after consistently developing it on Wednesday Oct 4th.

The 00Z GFS actually send it much further south again, with the center hitting the Dominican Republic now eventually instead of Haiti, but all of Hispaniola is affected.It seemed about a day faster in the timeline, but still fairly close.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF and EPS 240 hours:

[otowntiger]

Here is this evenings 18z GFS storm with development starting just below 10 days. Takes a track that is in ways similar to Wilma (2005) with a likely NE heading at or after 384hrs. Interested to see if tonight's 00z run shows it or drops it as the GFS has been off and on with where and when development occurs in its long-range for several days now.

Another system can actually be seen on the 1st pic grazing the Island Chain on Thursday Oct 5th,which is one of a few Tracks the GFS takes after consistently developing it on Wednesday Oct 4th.

The 00Z GFS actually send it much further south again, with the center hitting the Dominican Republic now eventually instead of Haiti, but all of Hispaniola is affected.It seemed about a day faster in the timeline, but still fairly close.

im not seeing what you are talking about.

[boca]

The last two GFS runs hasn't shown development in the Western Caribbean, but showed a system crossing around Haiti.