ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

Yes

More ridging than expected. You see most meteorologists don't even look at soundings anymore. They just look at model forecasts and they just accept the output. Not me. I am old school. You can see the ridging very clearly on that sounding. Easterlies at 500 mb, southeasterlies at 300 mb, and southwesterlies at 200 mb. The mid/upper low over the Southeast continues to pull westward with the remnants of Jose now cutting itself off from this PV anomaly over the Southeast. If you look at water vapor imagery, you can see that dry mid level air moving southward down the coast. I see a classic dual outflow setup here with a ridge in between. Going to be an interesting next few days to say the least.

All of this to say that I see a stronger system coming farther west.

What do you mean?

Yes, you can see the dry air moving slowly south off the Mid-Atlantic coast: http://col.st/Pu5mF

Would this suggest a landfall slightly west and south of the forecast position?

[invest man]

So then further s and west moving a little faster than forecast. What time frame are we looking at 5 pm Tues-8am Wednesday? And where Swansboro Emerald Isle area? I know this is just a hypothesis!

['CaneFreak]

First of all, yes this is ONLY a hypothesis. You should ALWAYS refer to the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast. I am just posting observations here. No need to be alarmed yet. As far as the time frame, that sounds about right or maybe more towards late Wed into Thu. We'll see. It's all about the timing of different features in the atmosphere. The atmosphere is a fluid and it is constantly changing. The point of all of this is just to be prepared, have all of your hurricane supplies ready, keep refreshing the National Hurricane Center forecast page every so often, and you should be just fine.

So then further s and west moving a little faster than forecast. What time frame are we looking at 5 pm Tues-8am Wednesday? And where Swansboro Emerald Isle area? I know this is just a hypothesis!

[emeraldislenc]

Where r u?

[invest man]

Where r u?

I'm in New Bern. Got family in down east Carteret county.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks good to know. Emerald Isle here.

[bghowie]

What kind of impact is that ULL having on Maria? I hear it is stronger but I don't know how it effects it exactly.

[stormreader]

First of all, yes this is ONLY a hypothesis. You should ALWAYS refer to the National Hurricane Center for the official forecast. I am just posting observations here. No need to be alarmed yet. As far as the time frame, that sounds about right or maybe more towards late Wed into Thu. We'll see. It's all about the timing of different features in the atmosphere. The atmosphere is a fluid and it is constantly changing. The point of all of this is just to be prepared, have all of your hurricane supplies ready, keep refreshing the National Hurricane Center forecast page every so often, and you should be just fine.

So then further s and west moving a little faster than forecast. What time frame are we looking at 5 pm Tues-8am Wednesday? And where Swansboro Emerald Isle area? I know this is just a hypothesis!

Agree. Too many ensemble members hinting at a west jog onto the coast. And I agree, a little further south than most now might suspect. That's why I think that Atlantic NC community which is at the extreme south end of Pamlico Sound might see the landfall. Most folks probably think a likely landfall is somewhat north toward Nags Head. Of course its very possible, but I favor a track a tad further south and west.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks for your input

[Gustywind]

Pictures of Maria's extreme damages in Dominica . Source: our newspaper called France-Antilles.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 434716.php

[Syx6sic]

Where r u?

I am in Norfolk va here and watching this very closely right now

[emeraldislenc]

The pictures of the damage is so sad

[Evenstar]

Where r u?

I am in Norfolk va here and watching this very closely right now

Checkin' in from Chesapeake and casting a gimlet eye at Ms. Maria.

[JaxGator]

While I'm glad Florida is in the clear, North Carolina - Northeast should still keep taps on Maria. Based on the NHC track and some of the models that do bring Maria west close enough to the coast for impacts (TS force winds and beach erosion). And it's large size would spread rain inland. Hoping it can stay out to sea though. Continued prayers for PR and Dominica. This season has just been brutal..

[GCANE]

[drezee]

29N 73W...if Maria is left of there...i think she hits land. Over or right...i think she misses

Recon: 28 deg 54 min N 072 deg 59 min W. Maria is inside the mark I set below! NC watch out!!

[seahawkjd]

So its down 4 mb and its bending a bit more NW?

[emeraldislenc]

Is it bending more NW now?

[invest man]

So its down 4 mb and its bending a bit more NW?

Where are you seeing this? Been out for awhile. Looking at satellite pics looks as if the whole storm is moving generally nw or is it my eye?

[seahawkjd]

So its down 4 mb and its bending a bit more NW?

Where are you seeing this? Been out for awhile. Looking at satellite pics looks as if the whole storm is moving generally nw or is it my eye?

I'm looking at the recon plots a few posts up. The pressure is down to 943 and it was wobbling or bending a bit further west of north than previous plot.