#2927 Postby seahawkjd » Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:36 pm
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
246 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017
...........
As of 230 PM Sunday...The primary forecast concern through most
of the long term will be impacts associated with Hurricane Maria.
Maria will slowly lift north off the Southeast coast Monday and
Monday night with high pressure centered to the north limiting
its forward progression through mid week. Guidance stalls Maria
off the NC coast Tuesday through late Wednesday before an
approaching upper level trough and attendant cold front finally
push Maria to the east sometime Thursday.
There remains significant spread in the models with both the
track, especially with how close Maria gets to the NC coast
before stalling, and timing with this system, and uncertainty
remains high with the the degree of impacts Maria could bring to
Eastern NC. However, the slow moving nature of this system will
prolong and possibly enhance the impacts that Eastern NC does
receive. At this time, the greatest impacts are expected to be
associated with the large surf impacting the coast and significant
beach erosion is likely with ocean overwash probable in typically
prone areas around times of high tide beginning Tuesday and
peaking Wednesday into Thursday. Highway 12 along the Outer
Banks could be greatly impacted and may become impassable at
times, especially along Pea Island. Coastal flooding along the
southern Pamlico Sound is also possible but the degree of
flooding remains dependent upon how close Maria gets before
recurving out to sea. The key driver for amount of inundation
from storm surge will be the duration of the northerly winds
across the region. The soundside of the Outer Banks from Buxton
to Ocracoke, and possibly Downeast Carteret County, look to be
the most vulnerable locations for sound side flooding at this
time.
In addition, tropical storm force wind speed probabilities
continue to increase, with latest values between 60-70 percent,
meaning tropical storm force winds will be possible, especially
across the eastern third of the region with strongest winds
expected across the Outer Banks. At this time, rainfall amounts
look to be around 1-3 inches across the eastern half of the CWA
to less than an inch across the Coastal Plain. We are not
expecting significant impacts from rainfall flooding at this
time but it could be compounded across the Outer Banks by the
impacts associated with storm surge.
Maria is expected to quickly move away from the area Friday
with an upper level trough approaching from the west. Models not
in good agreement with the strength of the upper trough and
available moisture as it moves into the area but could see a few
showers over the weekend.
1 likes
Gloria, Hugo, Emily, Bertha, Bonnie, Dennis (twice), Fran, Floyd, Isabel, Irene, Arthur, Matthew, Florence, Dorian (and many tropical storms and nor'easters).