ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sikkar]

The newest microwave is showing an ERC or dry air slot?

[Vdogg]

Wow, what a difference a few hours makes. She's a gonner. Wonder if she'll transition post- tropical.

[Hammy]

The newest microwave is showing an ERC or dry air slot?

I'm wondering if there's some upwelling going on given the slow movement.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

mid-level shear affected. This storm is looking huge on reg sat.

[Ken711]

I'm curious why Joe Bastardi always seem to overestimate hurricanes strengths on his forecast tracks. Does he just go by the long-range models (Euro) estimates?

[wxman57]

Maria has lost its core overnight. Recon isn't finding any hurricane-force winds on its first pass NW-SE. Just some TS winds for eastern NC tomorrow/Wednesday.

[tolakram]

FYI, FEMA info about Maria response in PR and Islands.

https://www.fema.gov/news-release/2017/09/24/federal-response-teams-assisting-puerto-rico-and-us-virgin-islands

We are still trying to contact Luis (cycloneye).

[1900hurricane]

Some hurricane force winds were eventually found in the outer band/partial eyewall feature, but yuck.

[RL3AO]

A good image showing the scope of Jose's cold wake.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/912301579755229189

[emeraldislenc]

Just hope it continues getting weaker.

[Jelff]

A couple of days ago I posted a Google + GIS map link that displayed aerial photos NOAA has taken for areas in the U.S. Virgin Islands after Maria. Yesterday NOAA posted to their GIS server the first post-Maria aerial photos they have taken of Puerto Rico. The link below opens the same map but this time it is zoomed in on several destroyed homes in southeast Puerto Rico.

Over the next several days NOAA is expected to continue producing aerial photos for other areas of Puerto Rico. This same map will display these additional aerial photos as they become available.

If you click “Map Tips” in the upper left corner of the map then you will easily see how to search the map using the provided coordinates and see some of the other areas in the Caribbean with significant damage.

Map link: https://goo.gl/vnyJwG

[WeatherGuesser]

I've been scanning the NOAA site: https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/mari ... 6/-66.0416

I see what appears to be a lot of roof damage, but I don't see the widespread structural destruction I expected. Kind of hard to tell, but most homes look to have survived for the most part. One thing is I don't see debris on the streets. They mostly look clear and driveable. For as much roof damage as seems visible, where is all the debris torn off?

[Ken711]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Maria's structure has
changed considerably since yesterday. Deep convection is primarily
confined to the eastern semicircle of the circulation and the radius
of maximum winds has significantly increased. After not finding many
SFMR winds over 60 kt during the overnight flights, the latest Air
Force Reserve Aircraft measured SFMR winds of 65-70 kt about 90 n mi
from the center over the eastern portion of the circulation. As a
result, the initial wind speed is set at 70 kt, a slight
readjustment from the 1200 UTC estimate indicated in the
intermediate advisory. The 50-kt and 64-kt wind radii have also been
adjusted outward primarily over the eastern semicircle based on the
aircraft data.

The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as that in the
previous advisory. Cool sea surface temperatures, moderate westerly
shear, and dry air are expected to cause gradual weakening over the
next couple of days. The global model guidance suggests Maria will
remain a strong tropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward
later in the forecast period. Therefore, the NHC forecast is a
little higher than the statistical guidance at those times.

Maria continues to move northward or 360/6 kt. Although Maria is
being steered northward between a mid- to upper-level low over the
southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic, the hurricane's forward motion should remain
quite slow as it is currently being impeded by a mid-level ridge
over the northeastern United States. A large mid-latitude trough is
forecast to move across the Great Lakes region and into the
northeast United States by the end of the week. This feature should
cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward after
72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through 48
hours, but there are some differences in Maria's forward speed after
that time. The NHC forecast track is near the middle of the guidance
envelope through 48 h and is in between the ECMWF and various
consensus models later in the period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells from Maria are occurring along the coast of the
southeastern United States and will be increasing along the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. These swells
will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in
these areas through much of the week. For more information, please
monitor information from your local National Weather Service office
at www.weather.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 31.2N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 31.8N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 33.8N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 34.7N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 35.7N 71.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 42.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[BYG Jacob]

With Maria spinning down, Lee in no man's land, and no notable tropical waves to speak of, its going to be a nice break from the Atlantic for a bit.

[vbhoutex]

With Maria spinning down, Lee in no man's land, and no notable tropical waves to speak of, its going to be a nice break from the Atlantic for a bit.

SH!! They'll hear you!

[txwatcher91]

Per recon it looks like Maria has taken a bit of a NW jog recently.

[Hurricaneman]

That's one huge eye, got to be like 80 miles in diameter

[Vdogg]

Did Maria just find some warm water? Looks like the core is trying to fill back in.

[PandaCitrus]

Looks like Maria's extratropical remnants may be a big issue for UK and Europe.

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/912389353674088448

[Vdogg]

As I look at the satellite two things have become blatantly obvious.

1.) Maria is regenerating her core
2.) She is moving to the NW.

How long she remains on this westerly path is up in the air, we've seen prolonged wobbles with this storm before. Of greater concern is the apparent attempt to reintensify. Even if it remains on the forecast track, whatever effects are experienced will be greater. This seems to be the year of the zombie storm.