Texas Winter 2017-2018
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8580
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
ENSO Update September 18, 2017
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The last 3 Winters for NTX were (2014/15 El Nino) Cold (2015/16 Strong El Nino) Warm (2016/17 weak La Nina/Neutral) Warmer
Winter 2010/11 Was a La Nina and we had a average winter with snow.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The last 3 Winters for NTX were (2014/15 El Nino) Cold (2015/16 Strong El Nino) Warm (2016/17 weak La Nina/Neutral) Warmer
Winter 2010/11 Was a La Nina and we had a average winter with snow.
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
CaptinCrunch wrote:ENSO Update September 18, 2017
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The last 3 Winters for NTX were (2014/15 El Nino) Cold (2015/16 Strong El Nino) Warm (2016/17 weak La Nina/Neutral) Warmer
Winter 2010/11 Was a La Nina and we had a average winter with snow.
So you're suggesting a warm Winter? You can exit this thread too!
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The one thing that has stuck out to me, that can potentially mean a cold winter, is that the potential Nina/cold neutral is very tilted to the east. Eastern based La Nina can be very cold as the spatial pattern is resemblance to a modoki Nino (warm west , colder east) just look back to the 1970s Ninas. I think we can benefit from this. Very warn NIna winters tend to be cold west with NIno 3.4 often chillier than 1+2 and 3.
Recent years with running colder tilted to the east includes 2010 and 2013.
This gives me hope and I think can be a key player in the coming months.
Recent years with running colder tilted to the east includes 2010 and 2013.
This gives me hope and I think can be a key player in the coming months.
5 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Ntxw wrote:The one thing that has stuck out to me, that can potentially mean a cold winter, is that the potential Nina/cold neutral is very tilted to the east. Eastern based La Nina can be very cold as the spatial pattern is resemblance to a modoki Nino (warm west , colder east) just look back to the 1970s Ninas. I think we can benefit from this. Very warn NIna winters tend to be cold west with NIno 3.4 often chillier than 1+2 and 3.
Recent years with running colder tilted to the east includes 2010 and 2013.
This gives me hope and I think can be a key player in the coming months.
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I can't believe its 3 months til Christmas guys
Winter is coming I hope this one will actually be somewhat cold.
Winter is coming I hope this one will actually be somewhat cold.
1 likes
#neversummer
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8580
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Winter coming? I'll be happy with rain coming!! 28 days with no measurable rainfall @DFW airport
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37143
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
CaptinCrunch wrote:Winter coming? I'll be happy with rain coming!! 28 days with no measurable rainfall @DFW airport
yeah I wanna see rain and fall temperatures first...
the forecast is pretty depressing right now
and hope we have a winter eventually...
2 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Where's my cold weather?!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
5 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Where's my cool weather? Oh where has it gone? wxman57 has put a hex on cold fronts, I know it.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Snowflake7
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:32 pm
- Location: Burleson
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3310
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Sunspot count at zero today
https://twitter.com/wxweb/status/917733709188657152
https://twitter.com/wxweb/status/917733709188657152
3 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 21
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
*Waiting for fall weather*
4 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Sunspot count at zero today
https://twitter.com/wxweb/status/917733709188657152
Let's hope this continues, though do we have any validated studies on sunspots (or lack thereof) and cold winters? I know I've read a few articles, but not seen any real studies.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
So Weather Channel saying la nina, warm and dry Winter.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 44
- Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:34 am
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Take what NOAA says with a grain of salt... La Nina's tend to be warmer and dryer overall but has brought some of the coldest cold snaps the DFW N Texas and its fair share of winter stoms. They are pretty robotic with their long range forecasts. Remember when they said winter 15-16 would be cooler? They were wrong in fact it was very warm that winter with only a TRACE of snow.
1 likes
- CaptinCrunch
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8580
- Age: 56
- Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
- Location: Lake Worth, TX (Tarrant Co.)
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Take what NOAA says with a grain of salt... La Nina's tend to be warmer and dryer overall but has brought some of the coldest cold snaps the DFW N Texas and its fair share of winter stoms. They are pretty robotic with their long range forecasts. Remember when they said winter 15-16 would be cooler? They were wrong in fact it was very warm that winter with only a TRACE of snow.
The CPC seasonal WINTER outlook is no better than 50% accurate which oddly enough is the same % of the Old Farmers Almanac winter outlook.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1738
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
- Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
CaptinCrunch wrote:BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Take what NOAA says with a grain of salt... La Nina's tend to be warmer and dryer overall but has brought some of the coldest cold snaps the DFW N Texas and its fair share of winter stoms. They are pretty robotic with their long range forecasts. Remember when they said winter 15-16 would be cooler? They were wrong in fact it was very warm that winter with only a TRACE of snow.
The CPC seasonal WINTER outlook is no better than 50% accurate which oddly enough is the same % of the Old Farmers Almanac winter outlook.
Id put money on us either having a warm winter or a cold winter.
3 likes
#neversummer
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1738
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
- Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
I used to put a lot of stock in each winter forecast that came out every year. Now I feel like they are pretty much a novelty. Take 4 different winter forecasts and 2 of them will call for warm and dry and the other 2 will call for cold and wet. It then seems like out of the warm and dry forecasts, 50% will be wrong with 50% being wrong out of the cold and wet forecasts. These days its almost a coin flip.
2 likes
#neversummer
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 6 guests