ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical Low - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Unfortunately, with out recon, the NHC must have some kind of satellite analysis for the basis to support an intensity. Even if they know the actual intensity maybe higher than dovrak number indicates, rules won't allow them to go with a higher intensity without a supporting source. Right now all satellite estimates are near 80kt.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

A Pac-Man game with Maria and Lee.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

A Pac-Man game with Maria and Lee.

The really hilarious thing is someone at the Weather Museum in Houston put on one of the computers a mod of Pac Man where you're a hurricane and the ghosts are dry air and wind shear.

For some reason though the face they put on the hurricane has two eyes. I don't understand why people always have to do this. Just put a pupil in the eye you've already got, wannabe hurricane personifiers.

(For those jealous that Houston has a weather museum, it's nothing much. It's basically somebody's house where there is a group of people that do weather forecasts for oil rigs.)

[Ken711]

A Pac-Man game with Maria and Lee.

The really hilarious thing is someone at the Weather Museum in Houston put on one of the computers a mod of Pac Man where you're a hurricane and the ghosts are dry air and wind shear.

For some reason though the face they put on the hurricane has two eyes. I don't understand why people always have to do this. Just put a pupil in the eye you've already got, wannabe hurricane personifiers.

(For those jealous that Houston has a weather museum, it's nothing much. It's basically somebody's house where there is a group of people that do weather forecasts for oil rigs.)

Interesting gif.

[1900hurricane]

It must have just missed the light grey embedded shade by the narrowest of margins.

TXNT28 KNES 260008
TCSNTL

A. 14L (LEE)

B. 25/2345Z

C. 30.3N

D. 51.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED BY MG AND SURROUNDED BY
LG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[CrazyC83]

It must have just missed the light grey embedded shade by the narrowest of margins.

TXNT28 KNES 260008
TCSNTL

A. 14L (LEE)

B. 25/2345Z

C. 30.3N

D. 51.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED BY MG AND SURROUNDED BY
LG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

I'd at least bring it back up to 80 kt on that, although a case could be made for 85 kt.

One other thing - I think the pressure estimates have been too low. 980 mb in that environment would likely be 90-95 kt as it is sitting between strong ridges and very small.

[1900hurricane]

It must have just missed the light grey embedded shade by the narrowest of margins.

TXNT28 KNES 260008
TCSNTL

A. 14L (LEE)

B. 25/2345Z

C. 30.3N

D. 51.0W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON OW EYE EMBEDDED BY MG AND SURROUNDED BY
LG. PT=4.5. MET=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[image removed]

I'd at least bring it back up to 80 kt on that, although a case could be made for 85 kt.

One other thing - I think the pressure estimates have been too low. 980 mb in that environment would likely be 90-95 kt as it is sitting between strong ridges and very small.

Looks like NHC is back up to 80 kt for 00Z. Pressure is actually pretty much a verbatim rip from KZC, with NHC and me varying by one millibar.

AL, 14, 2017092600, , BEST, 0, 304N, 510W, 80, 979, HU, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 30, 30, 1018, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
AL, 14, 2017092600, , BEST, 0, 304N, 510W, 80, 979, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1018, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
AL, 14, 2017092600, , BEST, 0, 304N, 510W, 80, 979, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1018, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,

It is worth noting that KZC does have a check on one of the storm size parameters, the S parameter, to where it isn't supposed to drop below a certain value. Per the KZC paper, that value is 0.4. My KZC python program has that check coded in, but I also have a spreadsheet set up to compute KZC that does not. Without that check in place, pressure outputs 5 mb higher.

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 961.9mb/ 92.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +7.8C Cloud Region Temp : -54.2C

Scene Type : EYE

[1900hurricane]

WMG eye now.

[Sciencerocks]

WMG eye now.

About 95knts. Would you agree?

[supercane4867]

I'm guessing 95kt for next advisory and major by 11AM EDT.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 958.1mb/ 97.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +10.0C Cloud Region Temp : -55.6C

Scene Type : EYE

[Hammy]

AL, 14, 2017092606, , BEST, 0, 301N, 520W, 85, 977, HU, 64, NEQ

Cat 2.

[EquusStorm]

[tolakram]

Lee SLIDER
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=16803.5&y=4890.5&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[FireRat]

Lee looks like a Major on that satellite image, wow! Even Lee is pushing major status after having nearly vanished last week, truly goes to show what kind of incredible season 2017 is turning out to be! My guess is that Lee is now a Cat 3 based on his appearance.

[Kazmit]

Major at 5pm?

[cheezyWXguy]

I know this topic gets brought up just about every time a hurricane develops a well-defined eye, but is there an argument for saying Lee is going annular? The general lack of feeder bands, with a stable circular core surrounding a medium to large eye (relatively speaking of course) and it's location make me wonder...

[EquusStorm]

Been a major for a bit already imo, but if they're waiting for ADT to come up before officially saying so, they can make a case for that now as it's still reading ~5.3/~97kts. I suspect they'll still go low on it. I don't know why they held back so much on the last advisory, but maybe on the 5pm it'll at least be at 95kt. At least they finally said that a major is possible on the last discussion.

Its forecast peak of 95kts will only happen if they choose to actually increase winds on the advisories. :p

[tolakram]

SLIDER of Maria and Lee.

I think Lee will be declared a major this evening, though just a guess. Plenty of opportunities for re-analysis after the fact.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14586&y=5062&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[tolakram]