Area from NW Caribbean across Cuba to the Bahamas (now INVEST 99L)

[blp]

Looks like this has something to do with the convection blowing up south of Cuba. I expect NHC will mention this area in the next 2pm outlook. Could be a good coupe for the GFS showing this well in advance (from model output several days ago).

Yeah I thought this was GFS garbage when I saw it but now the models are picking it up. Even CMC has is but on the other side of the State. Looks to be coming in from that flareup south of Cuba.

00z CMC


Rainbow Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-animated.gif

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/913067571292835841

[joey]

The 12Z GFS has the strongest low yet for its runs. On Friday, it has a sfc low form over S FL. Then it moves NE to 175 miles E of Daytona late on Saturday and strengthens it to 1009 mb. Then it moves back SW to over S FL late on Sunday followed by weakening as it then moves westward into the GOM.

yes could get interesting hope they will start picking up all the debris around those area before this happens as it could also stall before turning back to the sw overfl could be a mess

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/913044737174753280

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/913070593548877826

[DESTRUCTION5]

Based on 12zGFS it looks like SE and SFl will need an ark to get thru the next 10 days.

[boca]

Link to rainfall totals?

[GCANE]

12Z GFS starts the Gyre dance about +210 hrs

Cranks it up then in the GOM

[jlauderdal]

The 12Z GFS has the strongest low yet for its runs. On Friday, it has a sfc low form over S FL. Then it moves NE to 175 miles E of Daytona late on Saturday and strengthens it to 1009 mb. Then it moves back SW to over S FL late on Sunday followed by weakening as it then moves westward into the GOM.

yes could get interesting hope they will start picking up all the debris around those area before this happens as it could also stall before turning back to the sw overfl could be a mess

its going to take 2-3 months to get all the debris, still piles everywhere

[Taffy]

Following..... This is the last thing my area of Lee County and Collier County needs.

[jlauderdal]

If model support continues into tonight, which I see no reason why it would cease given the yrends for possible development near Florida, I think we should start a separate thread on that potential no later than tomorrow morning.

we need a poll for lowest mb on this one...its going to be tricky to predict what it actually does

[tolakram]

Link to rainfall totals?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017092712&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=400

[joey]

If model support continues into tonight, which I see no reason why it would cease given the yrends for possible development near Florida, I think we should start a separate thread on that potential no later than tomorrow morning.

we need a poll for lowest mb on this one...its going to be tricky to predict what it actually does

1007 mb before the turn sw then 1005 mb as it crosss

[CyclonicFury]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on
Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba
and the Straits for Florida during the next day or so. Some
development of this system is possible when it moves near the
Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday
before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[ronjon]

1005 mb low according to 12z GFS - then weakens it to 1007 mb as it approaches east coast of Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017092712&fh=84

[joey]

1005 mb low according to 12z GFS - then weakens it to 1007 mb as it approaches east coast of Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017092712&fh=84

and we got the yellow x lol they going by the models now

[joey]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on
Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba
and the Straits for Florida during the next day or so. Some
development of this system is possible when it moves near the
Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday
before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

this could become 99l again too lol

[BYG Jacob]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and on
Hurricane Lee, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This
system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba
and the Straits for Florida during the next day or so. Some
development of this system is possible when it moves near the
Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday
before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally
heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Chances should be higher than that, this is in quite favorable conditions

[wxman57]

Looks more like a frontal low that the models are developing east of Florida next week than a tropical low. Look at the low temps across the SE U.S. this Sunday.

[tolakram]