2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

Um..yea GFS has a hurricane/potent hybrid system nearing SFL... horrific if it comes to pass for the Keys.

[TheStormExpert]

Whatever becomes of this system it looks like it will be very sloppy and lopsided to the east.

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Whatever becomes of this system it looks like it will be very sloppy and lopsided to the east.

Taking the 12Z GFS track and being sloppy/lopsided to the east would be bad news for FL due to the very heavy rains that track would produce on its east side.

[HurricaneBelle]

Um..yea GFS has a hurricane/potent hybrid system nearing SFL... horrific if it comes to pass for the Keys.

I'm noting the date on this - Saturday, October 7 - which is when Florida is scheduled to host LSU in Gainesville as a result of the rescheduling controversy when last year's Florida-LSU game in Gainesville had to ultimately be moved to Baton Rouge because of Matthew. It'd be highly ironic if this year's game had to be moved/rescheduled again.

[CrazyC83]

One statistic that seems incredible: the last time we had a named storm NOT become a hurricane was Emily - nearly two months ago! Also in the last 50 days, every storm became at least a strong category 2 hurricane.

[AxaltaRacing24]

One statistic that seems incredible: the last time we had a named storm NOT become a hurricane was Emily - nearly two months ago! Also in the last 50 days, every storm became at least a strong category 2 hurricane.

We have also had an active named storm since Harvey. Literally a nonstop period of activity.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS is VERY active in the W Caribbean starting about a week from now. Most members have at least a TS and eventually about half or more of the members have a H. Subsequently, during the period 10/7-10, many of the members hit FL with a few other members still having a TC milling around in the Gulf. I count at least 6 of the 20 members hitting FL with a H and at least half the members hitting them with a TS+ just during the period 10/7-10!

The significance of this GEFS run is that it isn't an 18Z GEFS run. The 18Z has been very biased active but not the 12Z. This is the most active non-18Z GEFS by far for early October in/near the W Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro lifting strengthening vort N just off Honduras coast at 192

[toad strangler]

12z EC then sends a weak mess NE through C Cuba and the S Bahamas and OTS through 240

[chaser1]

Well to be fair, we so commonly see the GFS back off a model-cast of a storm in the long term. Looks to me as if the EURO is somewhat doing the same. The EURO has slowly increased the pressure gradient of the larger gyre in the SW Caribbean during prior runs. Last 12Z run it showed a 1006mb low on 168 hr. forecast verifying on 12Z Wed Oct. 4 that continued to deepen to a 998mb low in the south Central Gulf. Today, the EURO entirely backs off this solution and the lowest pressures are 1007mb just north of Jamaica with a piece of energy squeezing off and shooting a 1005 low off to the Northeast along the TUTT and far north of Hispanola.

[chaser1]

12z EC then sends a weak mess NE through C Cuba and the S Bahamas and OTS through 240

oops, was typing while you had posted this. Well, its possible that the EURO may flip back and forth a couple times? Otherwise, quite a different solution from todays GFS

[LarryWx]

The wide contrast at 12Z between the very active and much more active vs earlier runs GEFS (and noting that this isn't the often bogus 18Z) and the much quieter, including vs prior runs, Euro is quite interesting and confusing!

[SFLcane]

Not much to see here per recent runs of the ECMWF including this afternoons.

[otowntiger]

Um..yea GFS has a hurricane/potent hybrid system nearing SFL... horrific if it comes to pass for the Keys.

I'm noting the date on this - Saturday, October 7 - which is when Florida is scheduled to host LSU in Gainesville as a result of the rescheduling controversy when last year's Florida-LSU game in Gainesville had to ultimately be moved to Baton Rouge because of Matthew. It'd be highly ironic if this year's game had to be moved/rescheduled again.

yep, ironic is one word you could use. GeauxTigers!

[blp]

We will have to see where the ensembles show up. The run looks odd. Even the upper environment is drastically different with little ridging present where on previous runs we had a solid ridge.

[otowntiger]

Not much to see here per recent runs of the ECMWF including this afternoons.

yeah, I'm beginning to think all the hubbub was for nothing. The big scary 'gyre' system according to current dependable models looks to either not develop into anything or be a sheared mess with a strong trough decapitating it. I guess still the potential for heavy rains wherever it goes.

[SoupBone]

Not much to see here per recent runs of the ECMWF including this afternoons.

yeah, I'm beginning to think all the hubbub was for nothing. The big scary 'gyre' system according to current dependable models looks to either not develop into anything or be a sheared mess with a strong trough decapitating it. I guess still the potential for heavy rains wherever it goes.

Still, after Harvey, people should never look at tropical systems the same again. It's why the Saffir-Simpson scale needs some adjustments. Heavy rains can be just as catastrophic.

[LarryWx]

Important: The 12Z EPS suggests that the 12Z Euro operational is somewhat of an outlier with the EPS mean having the E US ridging holding on much longer than the op and similar to both its 0Z run as well as the 12Z GEFS and 12Z GEPS means. As a result, the 12Z EPS actually has a good bit more TC activity than its 0Z run for FL during the 10/7-10 interval, similar to but not as active as the very active 12Z GEFS there.

The 12Z GEPS also has some activity in FL and more than its own 0Z run.

Conclusion: Despite what the 12Z Euro showed, FL and nearby areas do still appear to be at an appreciable risk around 10/7-10 for a W Caribbean originating TC to hit them from below based on all 3 major 12Z ensemble runs.

[blp]

Euro does not drop development just has it weaker and quickly ejects it NE because the steering is much different on this run. The big High is gone. This could be the outlier to the East. You usually get one or two runs from the Euro that are off. Let's see if this is the case again or if this is the new trend.

[blp]

LarryWx we must have been reading each others minds. We posted at the same time with a similar discussion. Lol