2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[HurricaneFan]

A Tropical Wave is flaring up on the Lesser Antilles doorstep right now.Any development in the short term expected from it?

Is this Wave one of the systems been discussed in this thread in the long term?

Sorry if it had been answered already,it is very hard to get good internet or internet period sometimes.

[MetroMike]

The 18Z GFS consolidates the system a bit more quickly in the SW/Western Caribbean allowing it to develop more quickly. Let's see if this trend continues in future runs.

Let's not and skip to December 10th please.

What worries me is that the models have hard time with GoM intensity forecasts once a circulation develops near our coast as they tend to strengthen rapidly if shear relaxes.

Exactly, shear forecasts aren't always dependable as we have seen examples of this in the Atlantic basin this season. Unexpected ramping up of systems that were forecast to weaken etc.

[TheStormExpert]

Let's hope the trend doesn't continue. Maybe I should go ahead and put up the Halloween decorations early to try and scare these storms away!

[NotSparta]

A Tropical Wave is flaring up on the Lesser Antilles doorstep right now.Any development in the short term expected from it?

Is this Wave one of the systems been discussed in this thread in the long term?

Sorry if it had been answered already,it is very hard to get good internet or internet period sometimes.

I don't think it's expected to develop in the near future, but may be a seed for a system in the Caribbean, I'm not quite sure what the wave will do ATM

[floridasun78]

99l will pass by and we see other invest after 99l what models showing? so area by islands could be other invest i so confuse

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GFS consolidates the system a bit more quickly in the SW/Western Caribbean allowing it to develop more quickly. Let's see if this trend continues in future runs.

Let's not and skip to December 10th please.

What worries me is that the models have hard time with GoM intensity forecasts once a circulation develops near our coast as they tend to strengthen rapidly if shear relaxes.

Exactly, shear forecasts aren't always dependable as we have seen examples of this in the Atlantic basin this season. Unexpected ramping up of systems that were forecast to weaken etc.

Besides the current ridiculously high heat content of the W. Caribbean and nearby areas, a reason of concern for a potential big hit on FL: climatology of MAJOR H hits on FL in Oct. since 1865 says that the interval from cold neutral through moderate La Nina and centered on weak La Nina puts FL at the highest risk for a major H hit in Oct as regards ENSO. Check out these stats:

Since 1865, there have been 10 major H hits in Oct. on FL. EVERY one was during anything from cold neutral through moderate La Nina, which is the interval where we are now and where we're headed. So, I consider the current ENSO a risk enhancer for any potential Oct FL H hit being a major.

In contrast, there have been 10 Oct H hits on FL during El Nino to warm neutral. None of these were majors. 5 were 1's and 5 were 2's.

[Ryxn]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... -season%2F

Paints a scary picture for October

[ApproximateKnowledge]

Yeah, those SSTs are nuts. Remember that even the relatively cool ones on the left were enough to fuel Wilma's explosive deepening.

[floridasun78]

good thing that shear high now NW Caribbean let see if drop

[WeatherEmperor]

0z GFS exact same landfall spot in south florida but weaker




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[LarryWx]

^This makes 3 GFS runs in a row with a significant TC affecting most of FL within the interval 10/7-8. Keep in mind that all 3 12Z ensemble runs as well as the 18Z GEFS suggested a heightened risk to FL from below 10/7-10.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many members becoming a TS+ and 8 (40%) becoming a H. Five of those Hs hit FL during 10/7-10. Two of those later hit GA/SC/NC 10/9-10 still as Hs. One hits TX/LA 10/13-14. Keep in mind that the members are run on low resolution. So, the # of Hs could easily be underdone.

The 0Z GEFS continues the notable threat to FL around 10/7-11 with 4 of its 20 members hitting FL as a H during that interval. There are a total of 6 Hs but keep in mind the low resolution that is used. So, now we have all 3 12Z ensembles as well as the 18Z/0Z GEFS, the last 3 GFS runs, and the last 2 CMC runs implying a significant TC threat to FL from below ~8-11 days from now.

[johngaltfla]

The 18Z GEFS is similar to the 12Z GEFS with many members becoming a TS+ and 8 (40%) becoming a H. Five of those Hs hit FL during 10/7-10. Two of those later hit GA/SC/NC 10/9-10 still as Hs. One hits TX/LA 10/13-14. Keep in mind that the members are run on low resolution. So, the # of Hs could easily be underdone.

The 0Z GEFS continues the notable threat to FL around 10/7-11 with 4 of its 20 members hitting FL as a H during that interval. There are a total of 6 Hs but keep in mind the low resolution that is used. So, now we have all 3 12Z ensembles as well as the 18Z/0Z GEFS, the last 3 GFS runs, and the last 2 CMC runs implying a significant TC threat to FL from below ~8-11 days from now.

Unfortunately not only are those runs logical for this period as you alluded to in an earlier post, we run the risk of a major developing with little warning and impacting an area which is covered with blue tarps and still recovering from Irma. If this trend continues for another 72 hours and warnings start getting louder from local mets, I could see a degree of panic setting in rapidly.

Let's hope that next 3 days of runs calms down, but I'm not betting on it.

[otowntiger]

Apparently the Euro is still not on board with anything significant happening yet, and I'm guessing the latest GFS backed off? I only presume that based on on the lack of traffic and comments on this thread since last night. I could be wrong as people do normally sleep in that time period though.

[SFLcane]

^This makes 3 GFS runs in a row with a significant TC affecting most of FL within the interval 10/7-8. Keep in mind that all 3 12Z ensemble runs as well as the 18Z GEFS suggested a heightened risk to FL from below 10/7-10.

Make that 4 runs..

[toad strangler]

^This makes 3 GFS runs in a row with a significant TC affecting most of FL within the interval 10/7-8. Keep in mind that all 3 12Z ensemble runs as well as the 18Z GEFS suggested a heightened risk to FL from below 10/7-10.

Make that 4 runs..

That's a climo Wilma like track. Much weaker though .... although model intensity is not something to key in on right now.

[LarryWx]

^This makes 3 GFS runs in a row with a significant TC affecting most of FL within the interval 10/7-8. Keep in mind that all 3 12Z ensemble runs as well as the 18Z GEFS suggested a heightened risk to FL from below 10/7-10.

Make that 4 runs..

And now the 6Z GEFS.

[SFLcane]

Avila thinks TW near the eastern caribbean is moving into the Bahamas.

In terms of the caribbean with minimal support from the ECMWF or any other model for the matter there is room for skepticism.

[LarryWx]

^This makes 3 GFS runs in a row with a significant TC affecting most of FL within the interval 10/7-8. Keep in mind that all 3 12Z ensemble runs as well as the 18Z GEFS suggested a heightened risk to FL from below 10/7-10.

Make that 4 runs..

And now the 6Z GEFS.

Further to this, the 6Z GEFS has easily been the quietest GEFS run for W. Caribbean potential for just about every day for the last 10+ days. Yet, even it has a good number of TC hits 10/6-9 on FL.

Despite the 0Z Euro's op's lack of anything significant, the 0Z EPS also has multiple members with FL TC hits 10/6-12.

[SFLcane]

Here is another view of the 06z with a wilma type track across the Florida peninsula. Again remain very skeptical with not much other model support onboard.