ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
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- toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.
This is 2017, anything is possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:toad strangler wrote:Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.
This is 2017, anything is possible.
However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
so we could see other invest in nw Caribbean after 99l go east of fl by weekend?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.
As a coherent TC you're probably correct. But this has the potential to be a coastal issue for areas that end up with a prolonged onshore flow over multiple high tide cycles. Many of these regions are more vulnerable than normal from yet to be repaired Matthew damage.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:so we could see other invest in nw Caribbean after 99l go east of fl by weekend?
The Euro had Irma in the straits of Florida 240 hours out which is pretty amazing.
Lots of shear from the south pushing moisture from the Caribbean north over Cuba.
Any area with persistent convection that is not under too much shear could develop either in the Gulf or extreme NW Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Wesh 2 said if it stays to the east of Florida, it could become a ts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
It'll likely be a weak entity if it even develops at all, but something this close to the coast is always worth watch.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
rickybobby wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:rickybobby wrote:Hope is a weak ts so I don't have to go to school or work Monday. It is brutal right now in central Florida. 90 right now in port orange.
A weak TS shouldn't keep people at home unless you live on the immediate coast, since it is unlikely 40 mph sustained winds would penetrate far inland in that case.
In Florida they close bridges once winds hit 39.
Not true, and not that I agree, but Brevard County opted to not close ANY of our bridges during Irma. (Rickybobby - are you Kate's friend from the Cape Canaveral VFW?)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Considering all the quality storms we've had this entire month, a weak tropical storm is pretty much nothing at this point. And it's the N name - Nate isn't a bad name to have on the list.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
You might be surprised when i say this. I think this invest (Pre-Nate) could well become a hurricane. Seriously though, it could well be a major hurricane, hitting around Florida's First Coast (Dora 1964). I know Tammy '05 and Julia '16 though develop in similar location they didn't became a hurricane but Nate might well defy that. Why i said this? The shear seems to be favorable as it goes as Nate shoots NE before trapped in high pressure sending it west and the SST's are pretty hot there, you should know it...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
SuperMarioBros99thx wrote:You might be surprised when i say this. I think this invest (Pre-Nate) could well become a hurricane. Seriously though, it could well be a major hurricane, hitting around Florida's First Coast (Dora 1964). I know Tammy '05 and Julia '16 though develop in similar location they didn't became a hurricane but Nate might well defy that. Why i said this? The shear seems to be favorable as it goes as Nate shoots NE before trapped in high pressure sending it west and the SST's are pretty hot there, you should know it...
I aint ready to say hurricane but the Gfs 00z suggest something slightly weaker but with possibilities. I wouldn't discount the possibility of such getting a little out of hand.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I don't see much happening with 99L, trough axis is inland over southern FL. Maybe if the trough moves over the eastern GOM like the 06z GFS now shows, but UL winds will not be the best.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Yeah, the tendency of model consensus has been further west with the low forming, which is over FL instead of east of it. It wouldn't surprise me if this trend toward it forming over the far E GOM and then moving westward out further into the GOM were to continue.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
LarryWx wrote:Yeah, the tendency of model consensus has been further west with the low forming, which is over FL instead of east of it. It wouldn't surprise me if this trend toward it forming over the far E GOM and then moving westward out further into the GOM were to continue.
The CMC has been suggesting that scenario for a few days now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
06z GFS wants to split the energy now with separate EGOM and east coast of Florida low pressure systems. Not likely to form now based on the latest model trends. Still could be heavy rain for parts of Florida - something we certainly don't need.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
NotSparta wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:toad strangler wrote:Let's be honest. This is a nothing burger.
This is 2017, anything is possible.
However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so
If it does watch out for major hurricane Nate
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:NotSparta wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:This is 2017, anything is possible.
However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so
If it does watch out for major hurricane Nate
How do you figure????
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2017
UPDATE
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW TODAY, INSTEAD SHIFTING THE TROUGH MORE
NORTHWESTWARD IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2017
UPDATE
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM OF A BROAD TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS, WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK LOW TODAY, INSTEAD SHIFTING THE TROUGH MORE
NORTHWESTWARD IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS.
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