
ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Appears to be some type of circulation just north of Key West.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:NotSparta wrote:
However, this is also Invest 99L, which either doesn't form or takes two weeks to do so
If it does watch out for major hurricane Nate
How do you figure????
Favorable conditions, especially if it goes west, and because that's just how this hurricane season has gone.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
panamatropicwatch wrote:Appears to be some type of circulation just north of Key West.
]
Yelp!! Great catch and observation Panama.
Yeah. It looks as if 99L will form on the Gulf side of the peninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
looking at surface obs and visible... appears to be a circ overland roughly just NW of miami. moving slowly ne or nne .. but like with every system like this. if convection builds offshore any weak circ overland would likely reform.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: So moving inland over the Everglades it appears Aric pretry much atm.
that general area ( some of those obs may be a littel old) .. though on satellite it is clearly closer to the east coast. as you can see the SSW flow just of the SE coast of FL..
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once ( or if) deeper convection builds.


Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 29, 2017 10:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
That looks like two different circulations with one over the peninsula and one just west of Key West IMOAric Dunn wrote:roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once deeper convection build.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:That looks like two different circulations with one over the peninsula and one just west of Key West IMOAric Dunn wrote:roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once deeper convection build.
the apparent circ west of key west is not near the surface more in the mid levels at the moment.
though I do enjoy the 12z GFS.. develops both the circulations.. one from the mid level and the other from the surface .. that would be weird..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=374
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
could that red blob just south of w
cuba be part of 99l looks to be heading nne thanks

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:That looks like two different circulations with one over the peninsula and one just west of Key West IMOAric Dunn wrote:roughly here.. but again. where the convection goes the circ will go.. and offshore seems likely once deeper convection build.
[img]img[/img]
the apparent circ west of key west is not near the surface more in the mid levels at the moment.
though I do enjoy the 12z GFS.. develops both the circulations.. one from the mid level and the other from the surface .. that would be weird..
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=374
It would be weird, if anything I'd think that the LLC would get sucked under the MLC given that that center has some convection around it, but this is 2017, and it certainly is possible. Though if both do form they would probably shear each other.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
850mb vorticity is increasing in the area.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.
Fey 2008 repeat?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.
Fey 2008 repeat?
noo.. just convection from the land heating up.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:BYG Jacob wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Looking at radar.. the circ is moving just west of boynton/ west palm.. convection building near it.. but over land.
Fey 2008 repeat?
noo.. just convection from the land heating up.
Maybe, its a little hard to tell right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
actual genesis will likely happen somewhere off melbourne/cape Canaveral overnight as the vorticity "wraps" up into the east to west boundary up around melbourne. though classification likely won't happen until late tomorrow assuming it gets far enough offshore...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
I don't believe it is actually, that's separate. Might be worthy of an invest designation at least given its current structure.joey wrote:could that red blob just south of wcuba be part of 99l looks to be heading nne thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:actual genesis will likely happen somewhere off melbourne/cape Canaveral overnight as the vorticity "wraps" up into the east to west boundary up around melbourne. though classification likely won't happen until late tomorrow assuming it gets far enough offshore...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Yup, these take time to spin up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion
looking at long range our of key west and satellite.. I would not be surprised to see a seperate circ develop SW or west of key west already showing some curvature. I guess a separate thread should be started for in Talkin Tropics soon..
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