2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[tolakram]

GFS might be onto something! Apologies for the sarcasm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS might be onto something! Apologies for the sarcasm.

GFS gives the western carribean chicken pox. Lol

[chaser1]

Okay, tell me that doesnt almost look like the tropics version of a multi-missle strike lol

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Okay, tell me that doesnt almost look like the tropics version of a multi-missle strike lol

Really bad convective feedback, never seen convective feedback like this

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is still another GFS run with the W. Caribbean TC development. Also, the 12Z CMC has it in almost the same spot as the 12Z GFS and its 0Z run.

[toad strangler]

The 12Z GFS is still another GFS run with the W. Caribbean TC development. Also, the 12Z CMC has it in almost the same spot as the 12Z GFS.

Weak sauce through 180 but it's there

[TheStormExpert]

The 12Z GFS is still another GFS run with the W. Caribbean TC development. Also, the 12Z CMC has it in almost the same spot as the 12Z GFS.

Weak sauce through 180 but it's there

Looks like it'll miss Florida to the east this run.

[gatorcane]

What is this 5 runs now the GFS has South Florida in the cross-hairs? Granted the 12Z barely missed but we are talking 192+ hours out.

But note timeframe is coming in for this event...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC has an Irma like track over FL.

[TheStormExpert]

Of course the GFS would spin-up half a dozen TC's within the next 8 days.

[Hurricaneman]

Of course the GFS would spin-up half a dozen TC's within the next 8 days.

Convective feedback, look at a good example from the 6z run

[gatorcane]

Of course the GFS would spin-up half a dozen TC's within the next 8 days.

Yes but CMC is showing something similar to the GFS with one main TC consolidating. ECMWF is kindaof hinting at something similar. I think there is a distinct possibility we will see a TC form out of this in the SW/W Caribbean and it should move slowly north - classic October setup with Florida potentially at risk.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS has another vort coming up from S Caribbean behind 1st system.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS has another vort coming up from S Caribbean behind 1st system.

and that one washed out

[gatorcane]

Timeframes are coming in for this event. The GFS and CMC show the 850MB vort spinning up just north of Panama just beyond the NHC 5 day window. So NHC won't mention this area yet but I suspect it will be getting lemoned within the next couple of days.

[toad strangler]

Like others have been saying, the ensembles will be more telling at this range.

[SFLcane]

Curious to see when the NHC will mention this area in the western caribbean.

[LarryWx]

S FL get hit by a weak TC or STC coming from underneath on 10/13. This is from a different system.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro still not showing any real development until 192 hrs with a weak L in the S Bahamas

[toad strangler]

Now that the 12z run is through it does look like a climo situation. Just slow development and using the further E climo track OTS