2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chris_fit]

What have the Ensembles been showing as of 12z? Any graphics?

[otowntiger]

S FL get hit by a weak TC or STC coming from underneath on 10/13. This is from a different system.

Yeah, a lot of weak, small systems being spit out by GFS. (Almost literally). Not much of any significance. It seems to me that whatever does develop in this area, despite all the hoopla, may not amount to much. I guess the troughiness and associated shear will save us from the extreme sst energy pent up down there.

[otowntiger]

:uarrow: Okay, tell me that doesnt almost look like the tropics version of a multi-missle strike lol

Or being strafed by automatic gunfire.

[gatorcane]

S FL get hit by a weak TC or STC coming from underneath on 10/13. This is from a different system.

Yeah, a lot of weak, small systems being spit out by GFS. (Almost literally). Not much of any significance. It seems to me that whatever does develop in this area, despite all the hoopla, may not amount to much. I guess the troughiness and associated shear will save us from the extreme sst energy pent up down there.

I wouldn't count on shear and troughiness saving the day. With the La Nina and high SSTs something big is bound to develop in the Western Caribbean in October, maybe more than one cyclone. It may or may not be the system in 7-10 days, just too early to know for sure.

[AubreyStorm]

GFS might be onto something! Apologies for the sarcasm.

Near south Puerto Rico?

[toad strangler]

S FL get hit by a weak TC or STC coming from underneath on 10/13. This is from a different system.

Yeah, a lot of weak, small systems being spit out by GFS. (Almost literally). Not much of any significance. It seems to me that whatever does develop in this area, despite all the hoopla, may not amount to much. I guess the troughiness and associated shear will save us from the extreme sst energy pent up down there.

I wouldn't count on shear and troughiness saving the day. With the La Nina and high SSTs something big is bound to develop in the Western Caribbean in October, maybe more than one cyclone. It may or may not be the system in 7-10 days, just too early to know for sure.

This ....

LOL it's only 9/29. Never take modeling for gospel. October is a loooong month and you can't discount early November either in this type of year around FL.

[otowntiger]

S FL get hit by a weak TC or STC coming from underneath on 10/13. This is from a different system.

Yeah, a lot of weak, small systems being spit out by GFS. (Almost literally). Not much of any significance. It seems to me that whatever does develop in this area, despite all the hoopla, may not amount to much. I guess the troughiness and associated shear will save us from the extreme sst energy pent up down there.

I wouldn't count on shear and troughiness saving the day. With the La Nina and high SSTs something big is bound to develop in the Western Caribbean in October, maybe more than one cyclone. It may or may not be the system in 7-10 days, just too early to know for sure.

Yeah, you are right, and of course intensity is the one area the models and NHC still struggle with, but I think this year their 3-5 day forecasts have been pretty good not only regarding path, which they were exceptionally good at, but also intensity. But you are right in that we still have a long ways to go to be able to know that something vicious couldn't come out of all the energy in that area. The predicted and actual synoptic pattern can change pretty quickly.

[LarryWx]

What have the Ensembles been showing as of 12z? Any graphics?

Regarding the FL threat from the W. Caribbean, the 12Z GEFS and 12Z EPS are not nearly as active as prior runs. A hiccup or a new trend? Let's see what future runs show.

[RL3AO]

GFS looks horrible with the amount of convective feedback it's creating along the monsoon trough axis. Reminds me of what we saw in the MDR over the past couple months...perhaps even worse.

[otowntiger]

What have the Ensembles been showing as of 12z? Any graphics?

Regarding the FL threat from the W. Caribbean, the 12Z GEFS and 12Z EPS are not nearly as active as prior runs. A hiccup or a new trend? Let's see what future runs show.

I'd bet its a new trend. The way this season has been going I'd say that we should expect the unexpected. If we are expecting storms in this area, we could very well get no storms. They could come from somewhere else and go somewhere else.

[Frank2]

GFS looks horrible with the amount of convective feedback it's creating along the monsoon trough axis. Reminds me of what we saw in the MDR over the past couple months...perhaps even worse.

Was wondering what the freckles were - odd looking...

Max Mayfield (WPLG) did mention the legitimate low on the same map in the past hour (just a low at that point). We shall see...

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW, the 18z GFS has what looks like a TS/Cat1 hitting south florida at 192 hours. Take with a grain of salt




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[toad strangler]

Happy hour GFS real close to FL with a strong TS.
This board needs to get with the times and offer easy pic uploads directly from a device without having to host on a image site. Archaic.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has South Florida again and a little stronger:

[WeatherEmperor]

Happy hour GFS real close to FL with a strong TS.
This board needs to get with the times and offer easy pic uploads directly from a device without having to host on a image site. Archaic.

I know what you mean. That is why I exclusively use Tapatalk on my smart phone to uoad images. All you have to do is tap and hold on the image to save it to your phone, click the picture/image button in Tapatalk and upload from your image gallery. Very simple.

I access Storm2k using Tapatalk exclusively


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[toad strangler]

Happy hour GFS real close to FL with a strong TS.
This board needs to get with the times and offer easy pic uploads directly from a device without having to host on a image site. Archaic.

I know what you mean. That is why I exclusively use Tapatalk on my smart phone to uoad images. All you have to do is tap and hold on the image to save it to your phone, click the picture/image button in Tapatalk and upload from your image gallery. Very simple.

I access Storm2k using Tapatalk exclusively


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Another board I post on offers that even without Tapatalk. Anyway, didn't mean to derail but image uploading here is pretty much in the obsolete bucket.

[toad strangler]

And now the buzzed 18z GFS pretty much stalls and backs up a tad raking SFL 198 to 216

[WeatherEmperor]

Actually the lowest pressure it shows is 986mb when it landfalls in South Florida




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[Blown Away]

18z GFS...
Moves NNE over Cuba and then moves NNW and landfalls into Miami...

[Blown Away]

King - Oct 18, 1950... This crazy track has happened before...