ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

It is quiet considering there is activity near florida.. melbourne radar is showing this feature becoming more defined despite being partly over land coming up on vero beach and Sebastion ( could easily form/reform offshore with that deep convection)... does it break away from the trough like earlier models runs or get stretched out like the current run of the gfs?.. if the circ becomes well defined I would wager it does not get strung out..

[Stangfriik]

So what is the extra circulation around ft Meyers?

[cjrciadt]

Tornado Warning in Brevard County.

[Aric Dunn]

circ becoming more defined 5 miles west of Fellsmere. easy to see on velocities. close ot radar and only a couple hundered feet up. if it can get offshore or reform it has a good shot. shear is low currently east of the coast.

[SeaBrz_FL]

It's monsoon rain here in Cape Canaveral. Suspect we've had at least 3-4 inches since 4 PM. The people I really worry about are those along the St John's River flood zone. They were just starting to see the river go down a bit, and this is definitely not helping.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the 00z BamT models initialized the area near the coast of brevard.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Looks like the 00z BamT models initialized the area near the coast of brevard.

I was just going to ask about models. Last I see here were the ones that AdamFirst published last night. I don't see crabs crossing the street yet, but my nose is twitching "tropical storm close".

[northjaxpro]

Looking at.the Melbourne radar it looks like 99L is beginning to get its act together this evening. It looks like the Low-Pressure area is really becoming more defined by the hour as it drifts north right along the coastline and heavy rainfall is occurring in Brevard County and the area of low pressure is expected to continue to drift to the north during the night and during the early morning hours.

I will be interested to see how far north and offshore 99L will get the next 12-24 hours. There is a window for 99L to possibly develop into a TS over the weekend before shear really puts the whammy on the system by early next week.

NWS has Gale Watch up.for the coastal counties of NE Florida and SE Georgia. These will.probably get upgraded to warnings during the day tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is very easy to see on radar both velicity and base between Kenansville and Fellsmere just drifting. though I would not be surprised to see it reform with the convection over the water.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you Aric. There is some deep convective cells just off shore of Cape Canaveral and out over the Gulf Stream. The center of circulation indeed may reform nearer the deeper convection just a bit farther offshore.

A very interesting system. This is sort of reminding me of Julia last year as she traversed right up the East Coast of Florida and literally became a named storm right over my home as the center moved through the Jax area.
Julia was a surprise development last year, but this system would not be such a surprise in this case given the model support it has had the past couple of days.

EDIT: Looking at Floater satellite and radar imagery, there is a "shrimp shaped" like look to the cells. It sure looks to me that the Low Pressure area may be organizing just off shore Cape Canaveral near the Gulf Stream.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: I agree with you Aric. There is some deep convective cells just off shore of Cape Canaveral and out over the Gulf Stream. The center of circulation indeed may reform nearer the deeper convection just a bit farther offshore.

A very interesting system. This is sort of reminding me of Julia last year as she traversed right up the East Coast of Florida and literally became a named storm right over my home as the center moved through the Jax area.
Julia was a surprise development last year, but this system would not be such a surprise in this case given the model support it has had the past couple of days.

EDIT: Looking at Floater satellite and radar imagery, there is a "shrimp shaped" like look to the cells. It sure looks to me that the Low Pressure area may be organizing just off shore Cape Canaveral near the Gulf Stream.

the low level circ on radar appears to be drifting to the wnw. once it lost the convection the steering changed. something definitely could form offshore.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS take the convection that is building to the east and breaks it off from the the circ/vort over brevard currently and develops well offshore then sends it back in a few days though it is weakening as it approaches with is good.

[joey]

Be interesting to see if it moves back sw like the models were showing

[Orlando]

We had about an inch of rain at my house this evening (SW Orlando). I was out and about during the afternoon, and could see rain bands moving around.

[Aric Dunn]

geez what is the deal with the models. they all have so many systems in the next 10 days.. one after another even the euro..

[Nimbus]

99L still appears to be inland but the upper air circulation in the western gulf has worked its way down close to the surface. Only have a ship report of 29.85 surface pressure in a background of 29.93 ATM. Guess this will be a separate invest if it is confirmed?

[ronjon]

Lowest pressure near Deland-Deltona area inland at 29.80. Appears like it may be moving east on SAT this morning. Will be watching off the NE Florida coast today.

[Mouton]

My barometer at 10AM is rising a bit around 30 inches in extreme NE Florida with a slight freshening of a breeze from the ENE. An occasional shower, nothing to speak of, from time to time. The WS in Jax has been promoting Nor Easter conditions over NE Florida beginning today and extending till early next week.

[NDG]

A fairly well defined but weak circulation this morning with the low pressure that formed yesterday over S FL, now between Sanford and Daytona, still moving slowly north, pressure near 1013 mb.

[ronjon]

I'm detecting a slight eastward drift of the low pressure...we'll be interesting if it can move offshore today.