2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1761 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 30, 2017 7:51 am

I think the GFS and Euro have it wrong, they have development in the EPAC. I think it will be in the western Caribbean instead.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1762 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 8:47 am

Probably just a phantom storm here gfs just about dropped development. I’am still very skeptical with no support from the ECMWF. NHC not buying it for now Could very well end up in the epac.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1763 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:12 am

SFLcane wrote:Probably just a phantom storm here gfs just about dropped development. I’am still very skeptical with no support from the ECMWF. NHC not buying it for now Could very well end up in the epac.


The 0Z Euro does show development, not sure if its the same area the GFS develops though.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1764 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:16 am

SFLcane wrote:Probably just a phantom storm here gfs just about dropped development. I’am still very skeptical with no support from the ECMWF. NHC not buying it for now Could very well end up in the epac.


I am thinking development is more in the 5-10 day range, outside of the NHC's 5 day range development forecast.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1765 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 9:31 am

I'm looking at the satellite and models and its hsrd to make much of a case for near term development. Climo obviously favors the W. Caribbean but high pressure pushing westward might limit the necessary time for the area of disturbed weather south of Cuba to actually develop. I think we can all leave the shutters down for at least the next 5-7 days after all lol.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1766 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:11 am

chaser1 wrote:I'm looking at the satellite and models and its hsrd to make much of a case for near term development. Climo obviously favors the W. Caribbean but high pressure pushing westward might limit the necessary time for the area of disturbed weather south of Cuba to actually develop. I think we can all leave the shutters down for at least the next 5-7 days after all lol.

Yep. I'm seeing nothing of significance at all in any of the models at this time. Not saying something won't develop later in the month but it sure looks like we're good for at least the next 10-12 days. Again despite all the hubbub I've Been seeing, lol.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1767 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:22 am

Canadian has a massive Gulf hurricane.

Unlike the GFS, it actually develops the low in the West Caribbean, which is where you'd expect it to develop given the niña
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1768 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:25 am

Alyono wrote:Canadian has a massive Gulf hurricane.

Unlike the GFS, it actually develops the low in the West Caribbean, which is where you'd expect it to develop given the niña


With that trough, it looks headed for W Florida...that would be another nightmare storm...
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1769 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:33 am

GFS has another weak TS moving through the Windward Islands. Think this would be the 4th for them
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1770 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:39 am

I'd also watch the base of the trough over the Mid-Atlantic now once it gets into the Gulf Stream. The GFS cuts it off this week, although it is unclear if it can take on tropical characteristics, it might have a window around midweek. We haven't talked much about those systems since Cabo Verde has done all the work for us...I believe Arlene and Emily are the only storms this season that were from non-tropical origins.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1771 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 11:57 am

Canadian similar to the GFS at times explodes everything insight. GFS now seems to be favoring the epac for development.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1772 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:17 pm

Lol at the GFS, I lost count how many cyclones it develops in the EPAC and western Atlantic basin, 6-7 is where I stopped counting, on its 12z run.
Very inconsistent from run to run.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1773 Postby otowntiger » Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:57 pm

Alyono wrote:Canadian has a massive Gulf hurricane.

Unlike the GFS, it actually develops the low in the West Caribbean, which is where you'd expect it to develop given the niña
is that one worth paying attention to? GFS and Euro seem to get more weight, especially the Euro and both show zilch.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1774 Postby robbielyn » Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:24 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Alyono wrote:Canadian has a massive Gulf hurricane.

Unlike the GFS, it actually develops the low in the West Caribbean, which is where you'd expect it to develop given the niña
is that one worth paying attention to? GFS and Euro seem to get more weight, especially the Euro and both show zilch.

will someone post the model graphic for the canadian model or tell me how i can find it please? thank you in advance :D
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1775 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:51 pm

Now this is something to to talk about. At 216hrs the 12z Euro has a strong TS headed towards SW Florida.

Image


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1776 Postby blp » Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:54 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Now this is something to to talk about. At 216hrs the 12z Euro has a strong TS headed towards SW Florida.

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170930/bf1c370232f383cff8e742ac497dfbbf.png[]


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


It has been developing it in the long range on last several runs and shifting further West and now over Florida.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1777 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:54 pm

psyclone wrote:
rickybobby wrote:Fox 35 said nothing for the next 7-10 days and the season is pretty much over.


I think you enjoy these sorts of grenade tosses. As we all know the season is pretty much over Nov 30. October is the last of the very high risk months so we still have one high risk month and one low risk month to go. While I am heartened that nothing is on the immediate docket we still have a long way to go before October is over and that is risky business, especially for south florida.


There have been a few bad hurricanes in November as well though, although they aren't very common.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1778 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 30, 2017 1:59 pm

rickybobby wrote:Fox 35 said nothing for the next 7-10 days and the season is pretty much over.


Well maybe they want to take that back? Seriously I don't get the comment at all given the La Niña:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1779 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:01 pm

CMC same time frame as Euro

Coming out of the Central America Gyre

Image
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1780 Postby GCANE » Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:11 pm

12Z GFS initilizes it in 126 hrs in the Gyre

Image
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