2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[GCANE]

[SFLcane]

Interesting developments this afternoon with the ECMWF now onboard.

[stormreader]

I think you enjoy these sorts of grenade tosses. As we all know the season is pretty much over Nov 30. October is the last of the very high risk months so we still have one high risk month and one low risk month to go. While I am heartened that nothing is on the immediate docket we still have a long way to go before October is over and that is risky business, especially for south florida.

There have been a few bad hurricanes in November as well though, although they aren't very common.

While exceptionally rare for the US you are certainly correct. 1985's hurricane Kate was remarkable as it blasted the Keys and then the panhandle as a potent very late season hurricane. 85 was also a very active (2 year post Nino) season. I pretty much write off November stateside but if there was a year to shelve that philosophy this year would be it...depending on how cold air advection events unfold as we dig deeper into Autumn.

Yeah, in the deep tropics you still get Cat 4's in November. Places like Nicaragua and Jamaica still at some risk there.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting developments this afternoon with the ECMWF now onboard.

Yeah in its day 8-10 range which it’s been horrible in this season.

[toad strangler]

Happy Hour GFS goes off script and doesn't develop Caribbean Low at all through 162.

[floridasun78]

let hope models are wrong we don't need hurr any were we fl still recoving and keys and cuba put one thing models need show less shear now we two upper low that killing any thing in tropical area ne leedward getting shear and florida invest

[SFLcane]

No mention from the NHC..

[floridasun78]

No mention from the NHC..

i think too early not five day yet if their ever do

[toad strangler]

No mention from the NHC..

Why would there be? To far out and too uncertain.

[otowntiger]

No mention from the NHC..

Why would they?? What would they even have to say? lol! I assume you are talking about a model (phantom) storm?

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW the 0z Canadian has a hurricane into SW Florida in 8-9 days




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has a strong tropical storm landfall in the Florida panhandle at 192hrs, while at the same time on the Euro seems to still be in the Caribbean so the GFS may be too fast moving the low out as the Canadian may be the middle ground in terms of movement

[blp]

FWIW the 0z Canadian has a hurricane into SW Florida in 8-9 days

[img]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20171001/b5d4021184abd9ad6828d0a20409928d.png[/]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I never thought I would say this but the CMC might just have the best handle on this. Looks very resonable for this type of Nina setup.

[toad strangler]

No model has a handle on this set up. Climo is the only reason to lend credence to the CMC

[sma10]

Well now. The 0z Euro D8 - 10 is interesting, to say the least. System races north out of W Carib, crosses FL from Tampa to Daytona, screeches to a halt and then begins a southerly motion towards the bahamas completely trapped by a building ridge. One-off run? Probably worth keeping an eye on this if its a trend.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS continues to build the CAG system with landfall on the panhandle as a TS.

[GCANE]

[artist]

Ecmwf. 192
240


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0_us_9.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_11.png

[N2FSU]

06z GFS +102hr


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[N2FSU]

+150hr


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk