2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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northjaxpro
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1801 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:45 am

The tropical wave currently north to northwest of Puerto Rico is the catalyst of the possible TC. The GFS eventually develops the wave and moves it across South Florida as the stout HP ridge steers it through the region and later into the SE GOM by Thursday. Ridge axis forecast to steer this potential entity either to extreme Northern Mexico or extreme Southern TX late this upcoming week
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1802 Postby otowntiger » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:08 am

N2FSU wrote:+150hrImage


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Very different from other models- a weak TS or depression racing east to west across the gulf to slosh ashore in extreme south TX. I don't think any of the models seem have a good grip on what will happen in the 5-7 day range. The only thing that is consistent is that none of them show anything beyond a very weak insignificant system - most show nothing at all in 2 weeks plus. The only exception is the one run by the CMC depicting a strong cat 1 into SW FL. Not sure I'd hang my hat on that.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1803 Postby otowntiger » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:12 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS has a strong tropical storm landfall in the Florida panhandle at 192hrs, while at the same time on the Euro seems to still be in the Caribbean so the GFS may be too fast moving the low out as the Canadian may be the middle ground in terms of movement
I'm not seeing this. Or was that shown on the 0z and not on the 6z?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1804 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:16 am

From my standpoint otowntiger, I think the models are not handling this tropical wave well at all either. I think this tropical wave is going to develop and it could be stronger than what the models are analyzing currently. I just pray that it doesn't get strong and for the sake for the people in South Florida still recovering from Irma and later potentially for South Texas, who haven't recovered from Harvey.
All of this this setup with the strong HP axis building down looks like this thing is going to get steered to the west and this wave is going to move across South Florida and hopefully it'll remain a weak system. However, even as a weak system, South FL and South Texas does not need this type of system heading towards them next week for sure. Monitor it closely!
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1805 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:49 am

0z Euro drops development over the EPAC in favor of development in the NW Caribbean by the end of the week. It does not show support for the GFS on development of the TW now near P.R.
If today's 12z Euro continue with development in the NW Caribbean I would think that the NHC will start highlighting the western Caribbean on its 5 day forecast.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1806 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:17 am

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1807 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:30 am

Any thoughts on that 00z run of the EURO?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1808 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:50 am

AdamFirst wrote:Any thoughts on that 00z run of the EURO?


Other than 2 runs in row showing development in the western Caribbean just see and wait if it persists but it is right along my idea for development in that area.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1809 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:02 am

12z GFS slower and weaker with unsupported GOM feature through 114
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1810 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:06 am

GFS not on board ECMWF with SW Caribbean development through 12z 126 hrs
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1811 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:12 am

Through 150 hrs the 12z GFS says ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzz
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1812 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:19 am

12z GFS still tossing a weak tiny vort towards the Big Bend / panhandle area with what is a stronger system on the CMC and ECMWF

Unsupported storm from 6z is just a weak sauce L near TX coast through 168
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1813 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:23 am

Well that was boring which will please most.
Now lets see if fantasy land end of run GFS still pops a low DEEP in the Caribbean like it has for a couple runs now, and if it moves it up any.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1814 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:26 am

the GFS is all over the place. Sends the tiny Caribbean spawned vort off the Carolina coast as a 997mb L at 192 hrs.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1815 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:29 am

Basically a Nor'Easter at 204 12z GFS
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1816 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:33 am

GFS also insists upon an el niño westerly wind burst
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1817 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:34 am

The storm from the 6z GFS much weaker this run but the vort is left festering and sinking S slowly in the GOM through 216
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1818 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:47 am

The 12z Canadian now has a TS / Cat 1 hurricane just spinning in the centeal GOM. Last night it showed a hurricane into SW Florida. Very little model consistency going on here

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1819 Postby blp » Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:52 am

Hard to get through all the noise on the GFS from the convective feedback. It does have a weak vort signature from 102hr in the SW Carribean and then comes ashore in 174hr in Panhandle. If it did not have all that noise I think it would have more development. It still has lots of energy in the EPAC causing unfavorable winds over NW Carribean.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1820 Postby blp » Sun Oct 01, 2017 12:14 pm

12z Ukmet with a low just North of Yucatan in 144hrs

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