2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Alyono]

18z GFS already POSSIBLY hinting at a major pattern change for the Eastern U.S. with our first significant cold front of the season come mid-October. Usually if there is going to be something significant coming out of the Western Caribbean and cutting across Florida or affecting the U.S. it would have to happen by then before things shut down.

often, the first cold front into the Caribbean leads to genesis

[Blown Away]

12z Euro...

[Blown Away]

12z CMC/GEM... Not sure what to think...

[Alyono]

models seem agreement on something forming north of Hispaniola next week

[CyclonicFury]

12z CMC/GEM... Not sure what to think...

Constantly making cyclones, like usual.

[otowntiger]

models seem agreement on something forming north of Hispaniola next week

Do you mean north of the Yucatán?

[joey]

Alyono wrote:
models seem agreement on something forming north of Hispaniola next week

Do you mean north of the Yucatán?

its prob the one the 0z is showing now at 1005 in the bahamas heading to south fl at 106 hours not from the yuca area thos from n hispan

[LarryWx]

Somewhat more threatening trends at 0Z so far for FL early next week from the potential W Caribbean system:

1. CMC: It isn't that it is such a good model. But its change from 12Z to 0Z confirms my suspicions:

Note that at 12Z there was the development near Cuba on 10/5 of a disturbance in advance of the potential W. Caribbean genesis. I was earlier saying that I feel that that earlier development there would likely protect FL from a direct hit early next week from any W. Caribbean genesis. At 12Z, FL was safe. However, at 0Z, there was a much weaker (almost nonexistent) 10/5 Cuban development. What happens? W FL gets hit by a strong TC. Coincidence? I don't think so.

2. GFS: Check out the last four GFS runs for the map effective 12Z on 10/5 (84 hour map on the 0Z), when that Cuban disturbance (the one that I think would protect FL from a potential big hit from the W. Caribbean) develops. Anyone notice the trend of the last 3 GFS runs? It has been forming further ESE each time and also has been trending weaker. The 500 mb weakness associated with it at the time of formation is also trending westward. Notice that the 0Z GFS doesn't even get this into the Gulf as it goes N over FL vs the prior 3 runs getting it well west into it. So, obviously this feature is far from set in stone. What I'm thinking is that this Cuban feature will either trend even more east in future GFS runs and/or it will just stop appearing/be more like recent Euro runs. This is considering the trend and also that the Euro is a better model vs the GFS, which likes to develop too many features. Assuming this happens on future GFS runs, I believe that the W Caribbean development will get strong again on those GFS runs as it then would have no competition for energy.

Edit: 3. Euro: It looks like the 0Z Euro is still another Euro without the Cuban disturbance. Look out W. Caribbean, it won't have competition once again. Also, it looks like it may track a little further east.

[USTropics]

models seem agreement on something forming north of Hispaniola next week

Do you mean north of the Yucatán?

Development of this particular feature starts north of Hispaniola/Cuba in ~3 days. Eventual track from the 00z GFS and ECMWF operational models suggest a weak feature near EFL in ~5 days.

00z GFS at 120 hours:


00z ECMWF at 120 hours:

[LarryWx]

^ The 0Z Euro's feature that you're showing at hour 120 actually originated in the W Caribbean by hour 72. A strange run with two lows hitting FL just over 2 days apart during 10/7-9. I don't currently believe this is realistic.

What I'm getting from the 0Z GFS/CMC/Euro: the models are still far from solidifying what will or won't happen early next week. But suffice it to say, FL remains at an appreciable risk for a TC hit from below then.

0Z EPS: NUMEROUS FL hits moving NNE or NE 10/8-10, many originating in the W Caribbean with 2 stragglers hitting 10/12.

[USTropics]

^ The 0Z Euro's feature that you're showing at hour 120 actually originated in the W Caribbean by hour 72. A strange run with two lows hitting FL just over 2 days apart during 10/7-9. I don't currently believe this is realistic.

What I'm getting from the 0Z GFS/CMC/Euro: the models are still far from solidifying what will or won't happen early next week. But suffice it to say, FL remains at an appreciable risk for a TC hit from below then.

While actual origination is trivial, the boundary feature that develops east of Florida appears to be what induces development, although there are quite a few enhancing elements (i.e. a passing tropical wave, the monsoonal CA gyre in the W Caribbean). You can see this a bit better in the high resolution 00z ECWMF loop, as well as the W Caribbean vorticity south near Cuba:

[SFLcane]

Now being monitored by NHC currently with 20 % chance of development in 5 days. Surface pressures are low.

[ronjon]

Increasingly likely a system develops and moves into the GOM from the western Caribbean or Yucatan regardless of the inverted trough moving near S Fl midweek. Other than the super aggressive Canadian model, both GFS and Euro keep the the system broad and weak which I hope verifies as the NE GOM is now the target zone next weekend.

[otowntiger]

Increasingly likely a system develops and moves into the GOM from the western Caribbean or Yucatan regardless of the inverted trough moving near S Fl midweek. Other than the super aggressive Canadian model, both GFS and Euro keep the the system broad and weak which I hope verifies as the NE GOM is now the target zone next weekend.

I'm betting that the weaker solution verifies. If we were to have a major storm develop usually at least a few models off and on would depict an intense storm at some point by now, especially if we are within a week of potential development. Virtually none of them do run after run, with the exception of the CMC- which only shows (showed) a strong cat 1, if I'm not mistaken. Although I could have missed some and or misread them- of course take what I say with a grain of salt.

[Hurricaneman]

Will be making thread for western Caribbean disturbance

[chaser1]

Increasingly likely a system develops and moves into the GOM from the western Caribbean or Yucatan regardless of the inverted trough moving near S Fl midweek. Other than the super aggressive Canadian model, both GFS and Euro keep the the system broad and weak which I hope verifies as the NE GOM is now the target zone next weekend.

I'm betting that the weaker solution verifies. If we were to have a major storm develop usually at least a few models off and on would depict an intense storm at some point by now, especially if we are within a week of potential development. Virtually none of them do run after run, with the exception of the CMC- which only shows (showed) a strong cat 1, if I'm not mistaken. Although I could have missed some and or misread them- of course take what I say with a grain of salt.

What? NHC has even created their own model-cane LOL? Otown, I'm with you on this one. Overall condition do not appear particularly favorable for cyclogenesis nor am I seeing any decent run to run model consistency depicting a reasonable threat. If im not mistaken, it seems as if both the Euro & GFS have been advertising mid to longer range solutions indicating that a large Gyre might form over the W. Caribbean or S. Gulf. That projected development hasn't set up thus far and even NHC is putting zero stock in any development within 48 hours. Outside of warm SST's and climatology, there's no way these eyes would imagine something coming out of the present soup appearing on satellite. The models are gonna have to really step it up before I buy into anything other than a sub-tropical or weak sheared hot-mess coming out of the W. Atlantic during the next 5 -7 days.

[gatorcane]

CMC thinks it is August or September. System heading west under ridge approaching Bahamas with another one east of Lesser Antilles:

[AdamFirst]

No other global model is showing this solution...but for entertainment purposes only, the Canadian, everyone

[Alyono]

UKMET has development in the same area as Canadian. However, it only goes out to 6 days. Will have to wait until the afternoon to see if it also shows a strong ridge to the north

[sma10]

No other global model is showing this solution...but for entertainment purposes only, the Canadian, everyone

Indeed, this would be a highly unusual track for October 10th. However, this has been the year of unusual tracks.