Western Caribbean disturbance - is INVEST 90L

[SEASON_CANCELED]

not trusting any intensity model. that water is boiling and there wont be much upper atmosphere resistance. you could easily have a hermine or wilma like storm and track

Please. Again with the Armageddon type post.
"Hermine", "Wilma"????
"Catastrophe" in earlier post...
How about a possible sheared TS like the Pro Mets are saying?

Yes bcus they are always correct 8 days out . you might aswell just start guessing because thats what everyone else is doing. You l next 00z run could have Jupiters red spot over Conus. Thats how models work.

You cant trust model intensity. I didnt say anything about catastrophic, wilma was not the end of the world for S. Florida. but it was this time of year and that same area she came in.

[blp]

12z Ukmet has the similar East hook as the Euro.

[EquusStorm]

Considering that I ate Thanksgiving lunch by my laptop while watching a major hurricane move into Nicaragua just last year, I'm not going to take my eyes off the Caribbean until December really.

[TheStormExpert]

So much for the October major hurricane everyone was talking about. Wasn’t looking forward to one either!

We're only 2 days into the month. Remember as late as August 20th people were saying we'd have no majors all season yet we had a category 4 make landfall in Texas 5 days later. This likely won't be a major hurricane but that does not mean we won't get another one before season's end.

Hoping time runs out before there is a chance. The U.S. especially Florida, Texas, and Puerto Rico don’t need anything else, and we all know what the usual track is for late season Western Caribbean hurricanes.

[Hurricaneman]

The area north of panama looks suspect with hints of broad low pressure and pretty concentrated convection

[psyclone]

This will likely be the first of multiple (or at least more than one) late season threats to emerge from this region. the secondary late season peak happens around the 20th so those taking comfort assuming that this will be it should put the champagne back in the fridge. a sloppy right sided tropical storm brings it's own set of hazards for a region like Florida that is already soaked from a very wet summer. many rivers remain high and will go back into flood easily with heavy rain. in addition, it doesn't take much of a system to cause surge/coastal flooding issues on the west coast and that risk goes up quickly north of tampa bay where even a strong southwest flow in the winter in advance of a cold front is well known to result in a water rise...something we were exempt from in Irma. I wouldn't dismiss potential here even if an H or major H isn't in the cards...and even that aside, things can escalate quickly if the system ends up in a more favorable environment, all of which is yet to be determined. One thing is certain...if something does form we won't have the luxury of watching it for 12 days as we had with Irma. Careful monitoring is warranted in the coming days.

[tolakram]

All the data combined shows the dip in hurricane numbers near the beginning of October. I've always chalked this up to the first cold front moving down and then becoming a focal point for genesis after conditions start to improve. The idea we hear year after year that cold fronts shut down seasons has no scientific validity that I can find.

[psyclone]

The first front that clears Florida often stalls just to the south and ultimately serves as a focal point for eventual development. repeated reinforcing fronts really clear the air but neither is on the docket... yet.

[Dean4Storms]

We cannot get caught up in any tracks this far out and certainly not intensities. All we can say for sure there is now near 100% chance of TC formation based on models and ensembles in the NW Carib. or GOM over the next week and everyone along the Gulf Coast should monitor future forecasts.

[Alyono]

the CMC/GFS phantom by the Florida Straits seems to really be messing up the genesis forecasts in the Caribbean

[Shell Mound]

Some of the strongest hurricanes on record have peaked on or after October 15. Some cases:

*1924 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 145 knots)
*1926 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 4, 130 knots)
*1932 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 150 knots)
*Fox 1952 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Hattie 1961 (Cat. 5, 140 knots)
*Joan 1988 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Mitch 1998 (Cat. 5, 155 knots)
*Lenny 1999 (Cat. 4, 135 knots)
*Wilma 2005 (Cat. 5, 160 knots)
*Paloma 2008 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)

A number of these storms hit Central America or Cuba. Those places are at risk even into late November.

Of course, I would not expect this potential system to come close to these storms' intensities.

[northjaxpro]

My immediate concern from this possible system will be at least the heavy rains, not a good thing for east central FL where area lakes are so high and St John River basin still on flood stage, yesterday's heavy rains over Brevard County not helping the situation either.

Also, the 6-8 inches of additional rainfall across Northeast Florida from this past weekend. I measured just under 7 inches total at my home for the weekend event.

[weatherwindow]

This will likely be the first of multiple (or at least more than one) late season threats to emerge from this region. the secondary late season peak happens around the 20th so those taking comfort assuming that this will be it should put the champagne back in the fridge. a sloppy right sided tropical storm brings it's own set of hazards for a region like Florida that is already soaked from a very wet summer. many rivers remain high and will go back into flood easily with heavy rain. in addition, it doesn't take much of a system to cause surge/coastal flooding issues on the west coast and that risk goes up quickly north of tampa bay where even a strong southwest flow in the winter in advance of a cold front is well known to result in a water rise...something we were The potential for tropical development throughout the month exempt from in Irma. I wouldn't dismiss potential here even if an H or major H isn't in the cards...and even that aside, things can escalate quickly if the system ends up in a more favorable environment, all of which is yet to be determined. One thing is certain...if something does form we won't have the luxury of watching it for 12 days as we had with Irma. Careful monitoring is warranted in the coming days.

In addition to the factors mentioned above an element to remember is the inherepersistence of monsoonal gyres once established there is a fair chance that this gyre onceestablished may persist through much of the months of October possibly into November depending on atmospheric forcing which considerably extendes and enhances The potential for tropical development throughout the month of October

[Steve]

My immediate concern from this possible system will be at least the heavy rains, not a good thing for east central FL where area lakes are so high and St John River basin still on flood stage, yesterday's heavy rains over Brevard County not helping the situation either.

Also, the 6-8 inches of additional rainfall across Northeast Florida from this past weekend. I measured just under 7 inches total at my home for the weekend event.

I remember we were talking about y’all being in the epicenter of tropical situations last year too. The 2016 and 2017 seasons have been the busiest overall for Jacksonville than I can remember. I was there when Fran passed offshore (96?) and saw some trees washing up along Ponte Vedra. And I remember one year - maybe 2002 when Barometer Bob was fighting with someone over a system forming nearby. I think it might have been Hurricane City, but he might have been affiliated with them at some point so it could have been someone else. But I don’t recall so many systems having major weather impacts concentrated there as these last 2 seasons. We’ve only got a couple of brush-bys here, but it’s been super wet. It flooded again here in N.O. today. It’s like 3 times in 2 months. I think what you saw this weeeknd was up on us in bands today around the south side of high pressure and north side of upper low pressure. Definite tropical surge and influence if not organized. Maybe things will start to dry out for us in the SE after the next few weeks. With La Niña building, things will hopefully dry out for a couple of months. But it’s not going to happen overnight. All that warm Caribbean water, I think anything that comes up toward Florida will be juiced whether this organizes or not.

[Emmett_Brown]

Some of the strongest hurricanes on record have peaked on or after October 15. Some cases:

*1924 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 145 knots)
*1926 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 4, 130 knots)
*1932 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 150 knots)
*Fox 1952 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Hattie 1961 (Cat. 5, 140 knots)
*Joan 1988 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Mitch 1998 (Cat. 5, 155 knots)
*Lenny 1999 (Cat. 4, 135 knots)
*Wilma 2005 (Cat. 5, 160 knots)
*Paloma 2008 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)

A number of these storms hit Central America or Cuba. Those places are at risk even into late November.

Of course, I would not expect this potential system to come close to these storms' intensities.

Good list, some powerful storms! Does anyone know if these 'canes originated from a similar gyre type setup? The whole notion of the gyre is new to me until just the last couple of seasons... not sure if gyres typically generate lots of weak storms (competing for energy), or if they generally spawn big ones.

[chaser1]

Some of the strongest hurricanes on record have peaked on or after October 15. Some cases:

*1924 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 145 knots)
*1926 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 4, 130 knots)
*1932 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 150 knots)
*Fox 1952 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Hattie 1961 (Cat. 5, 140 knots)
*Joan 1988 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Mitch 1998 (Cat. 5, 155 knots)
*Lenny 1999 (Cat. 4, 135 knots)
*Wilma 2005 (Cat. 5, 160 knots)
*Paloma 2008 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)

A number of these storms hit Central America or Cuba. Those places are at risk even into late November.

Of course, I would not expect this potential system to come close to these storms' intensities.

Good list, some powerful storms! Does anyone know if these 'canes originated from a similar gyre type setup? The whole notion of the gyre is new to me until just the last couple of seasons... not sure if gyres typically generate lots of weak storms (competing for energy), or if they generally spawn big ones.

Good question and frankly in my own years of reference I can't really recall any circumstance where a W. Atlantic gyre actually set up shop spawning multiple smaller tropical cyclones to develop from it. My recollection is that these gyres do typically tend to set up in October or November over Central America but typically take forever to actually congeal and develop into a fairly hefty sized system. I tend to think of them differently than the monsoonal setups off the African Coast (or when the ITCZ over Central America is pulled northward into the W. Caribbean) that are often responsible for perhaps multiple tropical cyclones to emerge.

[Blown Away]

Some of the strongest hurricanes on record have peaked on or after October 15. Some cases:

*1924 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 145 knots)
*1926 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 4, 130 knots)
*1932 Cuba hurricane (Cat. 5, 150 knots)
*Fox 1952 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Hattie 1961 (Cat. 5, 140 knots)
*Joan 1988 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)
*Mitch 1998 (Cat. 5, 155 knots)
*Lenny 1999 (Cat. 4, 135 knots)
*Wilma 2005 (Cat. 5, 160 knots)
*Paloma 2008 (Cat. 4, 125 knots)

A number of these storms hit Central America or Cuba. Those places are at risk even into late November.

Of course, I would not expect this potential system to come close to these storms' intensities.

Based on those timeframes, we are likely due for a big late season Caribbean storm soon...

[SFLcane]

Ok those are some intense hurricanes thx for complying that but nothing as of tonight implies a hurricane let alone a major. Still early in the game and lots can change but we are looking at a sheared TS at best based on most recent model guidance.

[BYG Jacob]

Ok those are some intense hurricanes thx for complying that but nothing as of tonight implies a hurricane let alone a major. Still early in the game and lots can change but we are looking at a sheared TS at best based on most recent model guidance.

We can't even nail down an accurate track for a storm past 5 days, let alone the intensity of a storm. Ignore the models, and look at the conditions the storm is in.

[gatorcane]

I wouldn’t say ignore the models but I agree beyond 5 days models get quite a bit less accurate. The big Caribbean storm could come later this month or even November...way too far out for models to diagnose yet.