ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

AL, 90, 2017100218, , BEST, 0, 115N, 790W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 90, 2017100300, , BEST, 0, 116N, 795W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 90, 2017100306, , BEST, 0, 117N, 800W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 90, 2017100312, , BEST, 0, 118N, 804W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
AL, 90, 2017100318, , BEST, 0, 120N, 810W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Original thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119277

[gatorcane]

well this is escalating quickly. SW Caribbean blowing up:

[chris_fit]

well this is escalating quickly.

Should have been an invest early this morning - they late to the game

[NDG]

Model runs and related discussion go here, please stay on topic. - tolakram

Is that 30-40kt shear supposed to hang around in the central GoM?

Both the Euro and GFS show a building UL ridge over the Caribbean into the eastern GOM that should bring those shear numbers well down.

[TheStormExpert]

Feel free to move when the models thread is created. 994 millibars in 72hrs.

[chris_fit]

Models can go here.

[toad strangler]

So to continue the climo track posts from the previous thread .... we are not deep enough into October to dismiss a September like climo track that has been modeled.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro way more bullish at hour 48+ with it being more concentrated and having a lower pressure. The main reason may be because it does much less with that area that's now near Jamaica and thus less competition.

[stormlover2013]

cold fronts aren't strong right now and you have high pressuse in SE so yeah I agree.

[chris_fit]

Whoa easy there EURO...

72hr Trend - 12Z is last frame...

[NDG]

Wow, the Euro is developing it much quicker over the western Caribbean than the last few runs, including last night's. Not good.

[SoupBone]

Well this should get people's attention. When's the last time we've a real October threat? This season continues to amaze, and not in a good way.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[chris_fit]

Normally the stronger the storm the more poleward they track correct? Same thing apply here with a High Pressure off the E Coast? Or would a stronger system tred more W this time?

[TheStormExpert]

991mbs. in 96hrs. Northern Gulf Coast the target.

[chris_fit]

Central Gulf @ 120hrs - looks like a W Shift. Ridge Strong over EC/FL

[NDG]

Normally the stronger the storm the more poleward they track correct? Same thing apply here with a High Pressure off the E Coast? Or would a stronger system tred more W this time?

That's a myth that has been proven wrong.

[ronjon]

Appears to already be a circulation on VIS SAT east of Nic.

[ronjon]

Up to 40/60% Now from NHC.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[stormlover2013]

just a weird weird pattern, lets see how strong the front is with the euro.