ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[DESTRUCTION5]

Central Gulf @ 120hrs - looks like a W Shift. Ridge Strong over EC/FL

https://imgur.com/lOeJndk.jpg

Front coming at 120...thinking will landfall east of NO.

[NDG]

Central Gulf @ 120hrs - looks like a W Shift. Ridge Strong over EC/FL

https://imgur.com/lOeJndk.jpg

Trough over the Plains moving east is eroding the ridging over the NW gulf coast, it should start moving NNE towards the FL Panhandle or Big bend of FL.

[TheStormExpert]

982mbs. @ 120hrs. Due south of Mobile, AL.

[toad strangler]

Looking like Panama City on the 500 mb set up at 120

[chris_fit]

Yikes

[LarryWx]

Landfall FL Panhandle

[chris_fit]

Looking very symmetrical on the 12Z Euro - not a sloppy TS Sheared mess like the other models.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro Through 120 Hours... Cat 1/2 Hurricane... Due N from 96-120, so I guess NE after 120 hours...

[ronjon]

Looks like Panama City on the 12z Euro.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017100312&fh=0

[NDG]

So far this is the strongest the Euro shows 90L to become.

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

After FL Panhlandle at hour 126-132, hurricane conditions into SW GA 132-144

[SFLcane]

Bets we see some east shifts..I still feel comfortable this is a Florida storm. We shall see

[TheStormExpert]

Tracks like this are not that odd. Take Hurricane Ida in November 2009 for example.

[toad strangler]

Tracks like this are not that odd. Take Hurricane Ida in November 2009 for example.

Agreed and especially in early October.

[stormlover2013]

JMA has stronger high pressure in the SE, like always all about timing and trough and etc.......should know by Thursday or friday

[SFLcane]

It is far too early to forecast any exact track, dependent on when/where the low consolidates and the speed of the trough's advance.

[toad strangler]

Bets we see some east shifts..I still feel comfortable this is a Florida storm. We shall see

I will say this, ANY future E shifts early in run will be compounded significantly with the sharp right hook the Euro keeps modeling.

[chaser1]

Things are changing rather quickly here. In the prior thread, some had correctly noted the presently strong upper level winds presently whipping south into the Gulf. Wellllllllll, that looks like it may be relativly short lived and possibly not a factors in a few days when a potential T.S. might then be entering the Gulf.

Given that we might be looking at a T.S. still in the W. Caribbean in 72 hr.'s and potentially emerging into the S.E. GOM thereafter rather than a weaker system previously projected to evolve out of the south/central GOM.... i wouldnt be at all confident those present upper level conditions to be present over the Eastern Gulf. Per the upper air forecast maps, that upper level jet max seems to lift out along with a westward building mid to upper heights building in from east of Florida and seemingly into the E. GOM with time. At the same time the stout 200 mb high over Texas (that in tandum with the dip of energy into the N. Gulf) helping to steer those strong shearing conditions southward, is projected to progressively move westward toward the southwest U.S. with the building upper high from the east (along with the storms own upper anticyclone) filling in. As I see it, i now see upper level conditions for the E. Gulf evolving from hostile to favorable in the 72-96 hr. period.

(Sorry, this discussion should've probably been written in the new model's thread for 90L, but had just jumped from the Tropics- W. Caribbean thread, to the Active Systems - 90L Discussion thread without thinking.... MODS, feel free to move/re-post)

[ronjon]

12z Euro landfalls just east of Panama City FL near hour 132 - very climo like track with a bend N-NE the last day or so. As always, its going to be the timing of the trough coming down from Oklahoma when it turns.