ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[dizzyfish]

Local channel 13 (Tampa) is giving a time frame of Sunday for possible close or landfall. Is that right? That soon? I thought we were looking at early next week!

That may cause some issues in terms of getting prepared (depending on track) for us working stiffs.


BTW - I probably missed it but have we heard from Luis yet?

[Emmett_Brown]

The Euro 12z operational run seems a bit faster than a lot of the ensemble members. (It's hard to see with all the spaghetti), but several members show 99L still located in the GOM at 144 hours, and the location spread is still pretty wide, so we may still see changes in model track for the next couple of days

[Steve]

Going to ACL in ATX this weekend and don’t want to miss out on a potential hurricane hit. GFS is up on SELA Sunday morning per 12Z. I wouldn’t be home until Monday. Ugh

[AtlanticWind]

The Euro 12z operational run seems a bit faster than a lot of the ensemble members. (It's hard to see with all the spaghetti), but several members show 99L still located in the GOM at 144 hours, and the location spread is still pretty wide, so we may still see changes in model track for the next couple of days

That's my worry,a lot of these Oct systems take longer to come out of the carribean than forecast
Can make big difference in eventual path.

[caneman]

Local channel 13 (Tampa) is giving a time frame of Sunday for possible close or landfall. Is that right? That soon? I thought we were looking at early next week!

That may cause some issues in terms of getting prepared (depending on track) for us working stiffs.


BTW - I probably missed it but have we heard from Luis yet?

Are you in the Tampa Bay area as well?

[dizzyfish]

Local channel 13 (Tampa) is giving a time frame of Sunday for possible close or landfall. Is that right? That soon? I thought we were looking at early next week!

That may cause some issues in terms of getting prepared (depending on track) for us working stiffs.


BTW - I probably missed it but have we heard from Luis yet?

Are you in the Tampa Bay area as well?

North Pasco County 3 miles inland.

[MetroMike]

12z EPS bunched into two general solutions - Destin.Ft Walton and Cedar Key (Big Bend). Not liking the east solution one bit.

Charlie redux (well, further west and not as strong....... hopefully)

Charley was August though. Think organization off Africa and not Caribbean. Hopefully no repeat

I think the Caribbean has plenty of fuel to get this ramped up if the shear is minimal.

[gatorcane]

GFS coming in stronger...

[Blown Away]

18z GFS Cat 1 through 60 hours... Strongest run so far through 60 hours...

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Landfall Louisiana as Cat 1/2...

[toad strangler]

18z GFS landfalls at exactly the same spot as 12z

[johngaltfla]

Local channel 13 (Tampa) is giving a time frame of Sunday for possible close or landfall. Is that right? That soon? I thought we were looking at early next week!

That may cause some issues in terms of getting prepared (depending on track) for us working stiffs.


BTW - I probably missed it but have we heard from Luis yet?

Thanks for the reminder. I've got to watch Paul tonight.

[tolakram]

SLIDER. A horrible case of the blinks but there does appear to be a decent LLC below the clouds.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=12660&y=8234&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[MetroMike]

18z GFS landfalls at exactly the same spot as 12z

Well if it is stronger why not an East shift?

[johngaltfla]

Why does the CMC want to continuously develop like 20 storms in the GoM with each model run?

I know it's an exaggeration but still, come on man. GFS appears to have the most logical solution for now.

[johngaltfla]

18z GFS landfalls at exactly the same spot as 12z

Well if it is stronger why not an East shift?

GFS and Euro seem to want to push the high pressure system further West over the Florida peninsula which based on this year is not so nuts.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS landfalls at exactly the same spot as 12z

Well if it is stronger why not an East shift?

Stronger does not mean E shift. 500mb most important track indicator with a strengthening cyclone IMO

[ColdMiser123]

We are trending toward a high impact scenario along portions of the Gulf Coast.

[toad strangler]

Why does the CMC want to continuously develop like 20 storms in the GoM with each model run?

I know it's an exaggeration but still, come on man. GFS appears to have the most logical solution for now.

Euro has had the best handle on this one so far

[tolakram]

18Z GFS