ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

Development becoming highly likely. Cannot rule out a hurricane striking the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday

[tailgater]

Hoping the shear monster gets this one, I don't want or need a TS or Hurricane in my neck of the woods.

[johngaltfla]

Development becoming highly likely. Cannot rule out a hurricane striking the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday

That depends on forward speed, the building of the high over Florida, etc. Let's hope shear starts to build and inhibit strengthening.

[johngaltfla]

Why does the CMC want to continuously develop like 20 storms in the GoM with each model run?

I know it's an exaggeration but still, come on man. GFS appears to have the most logical solution for now.

Euro has had the best handle on this one so far

Too early to tell. But give it 96 hours and we can do the GFS v. Euro debate just one more time before the season ends.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z HWRF has a hurricane in 42 hours... actually might be reasonable, considering 90L's rapid increase in organization.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Going to ACL in ATX this weekend and don’t want to miss out on a potential hurricane hit. GFS is up on SELA Sunday morning per 12Z. I wouldn’t be home until Monday. Ugh

What's ACL? Tell them you gotta secure your property and prep your home so that you can be there during the potential hurricane.

[wxman57]

Development chances 90-100%. Possible hurricane threat to FL Panhandle - assuming the NE turn prior to landfall. If the turn is delayed, then could strike as far west as the mouth of the MS. Still thinking sheared storm at landfall, with strongest winds and heavy squalls east of the track.

[BYG Jacob]

Very obvious and defined center on sat with convection building around, this looks like Nate.

[chaser1]

12z EPS bunched into two general solutions - Destin.Ft Walton and Cedar Key (Big Bend). Not liking the east solution one bit.

Charlie redux (well, further west and not as strong....... hopefully)

Charley was August though. Think organization off Africa and not Caribbean. Hopefully no repeat

Very true. Origin was different. Initial track different. Time was different. What may be similar could be the speed & angle of approach, that it may also be a strengthening hurricane rather then a weakening one, and the chance of impacting Florida (though hopefully not around Port Charlotte again and probably more like the Panhandle area)

[cajungal]

18z GFS... Landfall Louisiana as Cat 1/2...

Right over me.

[Nimbus]

At least once it crosses the Yucatan its moving fairly fast so won't have time to turn into a monster cane. GFS winning the final model battle of the season won't be much consolation if some of our members end up living through what Puerto Rico did with Maria.

[USTropics]

8PM update out pretty early, development chances up to 50/70%:



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad
area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for
development, and this system is expected to become a tropical
depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should
move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern
Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern
Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of
days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.
Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[MGC]

Just awesome....18Z GFS hits me with a weakening depression and then brings a hurricane just to my west....guess I'm leaving for Universal Orlando a day earlier than planned.....MGC

[latitude_20]

Just finished topping off preps today. Probably just a tropical storm at best (per latest intensity guidance), but one can't be certain. And, it doesn't take much of a thunderstorm to take out power down here.

[Ivanhater]

Not looking good...tracking closely in Pensacola

[SEASON_CANCELED]

carried over from TT

fci wrote:

Please. Again with the Armageddon type post.
"Hermine", "Wilma"????
"Catastrophe" in earlier post...
How about a possible sheared TS like the Pro Mets are saying?

Never trust models or promets that far out.

[SoupBone]

Development chances 90-100%. Possible hurricane threat to FL Panhandle - assuming the NE turn prior to landfall. If the turn is delayed, then could strike as far west as the mouth of the MS. Still thinking sheared storm at landfall, with strongest winds and heavy squalls east of the track.

This is what a premium service has forecast as well. Still, with New Orleans and their recent drainage issues, it wouldn't take much to see flash flooding there.

[Kingarabian]

carried over from TT

fci wrote:

Please. Again with the Armageddon type post.
"Hermine", "Wilma"????
"Catastrophe" in earlier post...
How about a possible sheared TS like the Pro Mets are saying?

Never trust models or promets that far out.

I haven't seen any exaggerated posts from members or promets. All I see are posts that are factually justified based on climo and current conditions.

[toad strangler]

At least once it crosses the Yucatan its moving fairly fast so won't have time to turn into a monster cane. GFS winning the final model battle of the season won't be much consolation if some of our members end up living through what Puerto Rico did with Maria.

Final model battle of the season? What the....

[gatorcane]

What is this talk of final battle? I could easily see another storm out of the Caribbean later this month or November.