ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The developing center looks about 11.2ºN, 91.1ºW or so to me in the NOAA-18 pass from 0020Z.

https://i.imgur.com/4rfEsb8.jpg

You mean 81.1, 91.1 would be in the EPAC

[LarryWx]

OZ GEPS (CMC ens): much stronger members on average vs 12Z GEPS with many more stronger members (Hs). The hits go from E LA through Ft. Myers, FL. The biggest hits are on Biloxi, 2 on Pensacola, 1 on Apalachicola, 2 on Tampa, and 1 on Ft. Myers. These 7 hit between 10/8 and 10/10.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

156mb 100knt cane on sim.

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS similar to 18Z GEFS with it being touch weaker on average. Landfall sweet spot from C LA through AL, which is similar to the 18Z GEFS and earlier GEFS but well west of the 0Z GEPS/12Z EPS means.

[LarryWx]

Convection now really firing up near the center.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro is slightly weaker than 12Z Euro due to more land interaction with NE Nicaragua/E Honduras. But afterward, track very similar so far.

Edit: Track entering SE GOM suggests a bit further east track to the CONUS. Let's see if that verifies on this run.

[Alyono]

HMON goes near cat 5...

please fix the coupling. HWRF seems to have too much boundary layer reduction going on

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro hits Big Bend on Sun 10/8 early afternoon. This is ~100 miles east of the 12Z Euro landfall. It later hits most of S GA, especially SC/SE with a pretty big blow, followed by a nasty hit on the E Carolinas 10/9. Climo actually says this is a favored track for early Oct. Can you say widespread heavy rainfall and power outages again?

[AtlanticWind]

Would think this might qualify for potential tropical cyclone designation,to issue some
warnings for central America

[caneman]

Can someone post the Euro graphic model run please or provide a link or end run where landfall will be? Thanks

[chaser1]

Can someone post the Euro graphic model run please or provide a link or end run where landfall will be? Thanks

You got it. Just hit play.....
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[USTropics]

00z model runs:

GFS


ECMWF


CMC

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

HMON goes near cat 5...

please fix the coupling. HWRF seems to have too much boundary layer reduction going on

[USTropics]

00z UKMET plots:

[USTropics]

00z GFS ensembles:

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Can someone post the Euro graphic model run please or provide a link or end run where landfall will be? Thanks

You got it. Just hit play.....
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

i think these maybe higher resolution.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
both ec and gfs models, page updates on each run.

[caneman]

Mother f'er on that Euro run. While not a landfall in Tampa Bay that run would push up lots of water and depending how strong and or close could cause power outages. Was without power with Irma for 5 days and there are still large amounts of areas that still don't have big debris piles fencing, trees, branches etc picked up. County not doing a good job.

[EquusStorm]

So this might be a really good weekend to visit my mother on the Alabama coast.

Last time I went down there was, very ironically, during Cindy, where I witnessed my first tornado... buuuut this one threatens to be a bit more than a little coastal and inland flooding with 40mph winds if some of the ensembles pan out...

[GCANE]

Persisent strong convection just SW of the CoC.
Looks to have some helicity with it.
Should get the surface vort spinning better.

[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensembles: