ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Mother f'er on that Euro run. While not a landfall in Tampa Bay that run would push up lots of water and depending how strong and or close could cause power outages. Was without power with Irma for 5 days and there are still large amounts of areas that still don't have big debris piles fencing, trees, branches etc picked up. County not doing a good job.

Even if it does track closer to you as the Euro is still the eastern outlier, indications are it will still be not all that strong- t.s or weak and small cat 1. A storm that small and weak won't have catastrophic effects.

[ronjon]

Mother f'er on that Euro run. While not a landfall in Tampa Bay that run would push up lots of water and depending how strong and or close could cause power outages. Was without power with Irma for 5 days and there are still large amounts of areas that still don't have big debris piles fencing, trees, branches etc picked up. County not doing a good job.

I hear ya caneman. This is what spooks me. When the Euro stays east, others will follow. And the ensembles show even further east tracks than the operational run.

[gulf701]

AM Discussion by NWS Tallahassee
Much stronger discussion than yesterday.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

More concerning is the potential tropical development is the
western Caribbean late this week. The NHC has a 70% chance of
tropical cyclone formation in this region in the next 48 hours.
While the full suite of operational guidance develops a tropical
cyclone, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty as to the
eventual track of the low. What can be said is that it`s becoming
increasingly likely that an area of low pressure will move into a
favorable environment in the Gulf and impact the Gulf coast
anywhere from LA to FL on Sunday. The eventual track will depend
greatly upon the strength of the western Atlantic ridge. Models
which favor an eastern track (FL) suggest a breakdown of this
ridge across the Southeast, while westernmost tracks result from
the ridge remaining intact across the Southeast. Operational
models are essentially split 50/50 at this time so it`s not
prudent to place favor on one or the other solutions. Stay
tuned...

[northjaxpro]

Persisent strong convection just SW of the CoC.
Looks to have some helicity with it.
Should get the surface vort spinning better.

Convection firing around the apparent COC already this morning. The system is very organized already. No doubt in my mind we will have this designated straight to TS status within the next 12- 24 hours.

[otowntiger]

Looks like the latest GFS (6z) is holding to the SE LA landfall as a weak TS. No difference from the 0z run that I can tell. It seems that the Euto is on the right, the GFS on the left and all others in between. Looks like this could be more of a Miss/AL threat in my opinion. It seems the 0z Euro dialed down the intensity as well.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[GCANE]

850 to 500mb vorts look to be closing off.
850mb appears to be strengthening, obvious on MIMIC-TPW.
Only impairment at the moment is the weak ULL / 355K PV Anomoly over Nicaragua which should push out / dissipate in about 24 hrs.

[GCANE]

Looks like a very strong Vortical Hot Tower fired off around 8:00Z and lasted about 1/2 hr.

[NDG]

This was the ASCAT pass last night, the western section of its circulation.

[ftolmsteen]

Seems based on the Euro ensembles the stronger it gets the further east it goes. I really hope I don't wake up the next few mornings to see a monster in the Gulf of Honduras.

[NDG]

The Island of San Andres, east of Nicaragua is reporting pressure down to 1006 mb.

METAR for: SKSP (San Andres Isl Arpt, --, CO)
Text: SKSP 041000Z 06011KT 8000 RA SCT016 OVC070 25/24 A2972
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.72 inches Hg (1006.5 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 knots; 5.7 m/s)
Visibility: 5 sm ( 8 km)
Ceiling: 7000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1600 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA (moderate rain)

[NDG]

06z HWRF so far through 84 hrs is weaker than previous 2 runs.

[blp]

Seems based on the Euro ensembles the stronger it gets the further east it goes. I really hope I don't wake up the next few mornings to see a monster in the Gulf of Honduras.

You are correct. I would keep a close eye if you are Florida West Coast. This looks to be ramping faster than forecast.

[PSUHiker31]

This system and its future track just reminds me so much of Opal

[Blown Away]

Healthy convection...

[caneman]

Mother f'er on that Euro run. While not a landfall in Tampa Bay that run would push up lots of water and depending how strong and or close could cause power outages. Was without power with Irma for 5 days and there are still large amounts of areas that still don't have big debris piles fencing, trees, branches etc picked up. County not doing a good job.

Even if it does track closer to you as the Euro is still the eastern outlier, indications are it will still be not all that strong- t.s or weak and small cat 1. A storm that small and weak won't have catastrophic effects.

It doesn't have to be catastrophic. I was without power for 5 days, spent hundreds of extra dollars, work was closed for a week, to have an impact and that was just wind and no surge.

[SFLcane]

Very early in terms of US impacts but definite shift eastward in the euro ensembles over night.

[caneman]

Mother f'er on that Euro run. While not a landfall in Tampa Bay that run would push up lots of water and depending how strong and or close could cause power outages. Was without power with Irma for 5 days and there are still large amounts of areas that still don't have big debris piles fencing, trees, branches etc picked up. County not doing a good job.

Even if it does track closer to you as the Euro is still the eastern outlier, indications are it will still be not all that strong- t.s or weak and small cat 1. A storm that small and weak won't have catastrophic effects.

It doesn't have to be catastrophic to affect you. I was without power for 5 days, spent hundreds of extra dollars, work was closed for a week, kids missed a week of school, tons of cleanup, to have an impact and that was just wind and no surge. We also have a bunch of missiles laying around. The news hammered the power companies, cable companies but for the most part have given the local and county governments a pass. There is still debris everywhere more than 3 weeks later.

[South Texas Storms]

7am NHC outlook up to 90%-90%.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea have become better
organized since yesterday. This system is expected to become a
tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward toward
the coast of Nicaragua. The low should move slowly northwestward
across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras on
Thursday, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday, and
emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Interests in
Nicaragua, Honduras, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be
issued later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless
of development, this system will produce heavy rains over portions
of Central America during the next few days, likely causing flash
floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Dean4Storms]

00z ECM looks suspect as well taking the northern Vort of the TW now off SE FL and moving it due north to a position east of Jax. creating the weakness in the ridge much further east than most all other guidance and thus its further east landfall solution.

I think we're looking at somewhere in between the GFS solution and the ECM, FL Panhandle.