ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[tgenius]

IS it at all conceivable for a Wilma track for 90L? There's a bunch of dead trees/branches all over the roads in Miami and they could become projectiles pretty quick. Don't want to even have to deal with another storm down here.

[NDG]

While 90L is embedded in a large-scale monsoon gyre, the soon to be TC is looking more compact and organized that I was expected. I'm still worried that RI/EI is possible over the next couple days if it can avoid too much land interaction.

I agree, it will be very surprising if it does not take advantage of the very warm deep waters of the western Caribbean for RI, especially if it follows the track of the Euro.

BTW, to add the Euro forecasts a fairly UL conditions over the eastern GOM.

[dizzyfish]

IS it at all conceivable for a Wilma track for 90L? There's a bunch of dead trees/branches all over the roads in Miami and they could become projectiles pretty quick. Don't want to even have to deal with another storm down here.

I think most of the state is still like that. I know it is in the counties I pass through every day. Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco

Besides the debris the structure of a LOT of trees has been compromised to some extent. Another blow - even if it is a small one - may lead to a worse situation than the one we are recovering from.

[mcheer23]

New early suite models are out. Shift west, along with the TVCN line near Pensacola

['CaneFreak]

While 90L is embedded in a large-scale monsoon gyre, the soon to be TC is looking more compact and organized than I was expected. I'm still worried that RI/EI is possible over the next couple days if it can avoid too much land interaction.

I agree. Looks like we have an upper level low that is trying to pinch off this morning and it is heading west in the Gulf of Mexico (step through the time steps on the site below). If this continues heading westward, it could act to ventilate the system. I could definitely see some rapid intensification within the next few days. Not something any of us want to hear. Let's just hope that it doesn't get too strong.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor1&zoom=&time=-2

[joey]

Nhc 8am big shift east will there be more east shifts ?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

probably cedar key. Hermine part 2


that area is a magnet for hurricanes.

[otowntiger]

While 90L is embedded in a large-scale monsoon gyre, the soon to be TC is looking more compact and organized than I was expected. I'm still worried that RI/EI is possible over the next couple days if it can avoid too much land interaction.

RL3AO: I appreciate your expert opinion as I do all of our Pro -Mets on here. Your thoughts here are a little ominous and duly noted. As a non professional I have a question: I know that "RI" stands for Rapid Intensification, what does "EI" stand for? Thanks!

[Noles2016]

probably cedar key. Hermine part 2


that area is a magnet for hurricanes.

Hermine was closer to St. Marks than Cedar Key.

[mrbagyo]

While 90L is embedded in a large-scale monsoon gyre, the soon to be TC is looking more compact and organized than I was expected. I'm still worried that RI/EI is possible over the next couple days if it can avoid too much land interaction.

RL3AO: I appreciate your expert opinion as I do all of our Pro -Mets on here. Your thoughts here are a little ominous and duly noted. As a non professional I have a question: I know that "RI" stands for Rapid Intensification, what does "EI" stand for? Thanks!

Explosive Intensification - the more extreme case of RI
Drop in central pressure at a rate of at least 2.5 mb per hour for a minimum of 12 hours.

[blp]

Looking at the current steering chart. The steering is weak in general so not a lot of movement. If it stays weak > 1000mb it will tend to move quicker and would come inland at some point. If it is stronger 990-999 it will be pulled slower and possibly miss landfall. Of course these charts are static so it will change but given the way this is organizing I would lean more toward a NW movement possibly missing landfall.

This time of the year that area is notorious for having systems stall and cause the models headaches. The models are too weak with this system so I would not put too much faith in them ATM.

>1000mb


990-999

[Ivanhater]

New early suite models are out. Shift west, along with the TVCN line near Pensacola

Graphic?

[1900hurricane]

I'm willing to upgrade to a tropical depression based on the recent Coriolis pass.

[Emmett_Brown]

New early suite models are out. Shift west, along with the TVCN line near Pensacola

For those of us (me) not familiar with the "early suite" models, which models are these; is the Euro part of it for example?

[NDG]

The Euro paints a fairly good UL environment for 90L when is over the GOM, it will be hard to believe that it will be just a TS as it tracks over the very warm GOM with these forecasted UL conditions .
Like I said yesterday, a run for major hurricane is certainly not out of the possibilites, IMO.

[NDG]

New early suite models are out. Shift west, along with the TVCN line near Pensacola

For those of us (me) not familiar with the "early suite" models, which models are these; is the Euro part of it for example?

Nope, the Euro is not part of the suit, perhaps part of the TVCN since it is a model consensus. The reason why the TVCN is so far west from the Euro is that it takes into account the GFS and HWRF which are still over SE LA.

[wxman57]

New early suite models are out. Shift west, along with the TVCN line near Pensacola

For those of us (me) not familiar with the "early suite" models, which models are these; is the Euro part of it for example?

The early models are in the graphic below. No ECMWF. Mostly interpolated GFS runs, HWRF, updated consensus tracks, and the TABs (shouldn't be used north of 20N).

https://verif.rap.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al902017/track_early/aal90_2017100412_track_early.png

[chaser1]

06z HWRF so far through 84 hrs is weaker than previous 2 runs.

LOL?! Thats nothing. HMON is something close to 85 millibars weaker than prior run Now THATS crazy inconsistant

[AFWeather]

I'm willing to upgrade to a tropical depression based on the recent Coriolis pass.

NHC is too it seems!

[Steve]

NAVGEM and CMC look to be the most sensible solutions to me. And no, you won't hear me say that most likely ever again. I like the NE Fade toward the end, and a hit somewhere between 87-89W so Gulfport to Pensacola or so. It's a little early, but we're under 5 days to impact.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293