ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS running

[Steve]

GFS,NAM and the CMC show the stronger trof I think I will put some stock in those esp.the CMC and NAM.The CMC deals more with this synoptic's of that region of the continent along with the NAM.Thinking LA/MS line to Destin.

Yeah you too huh? World is upside down when we are looking at a CMC/NAM alliance. GFS will be running in a few minutes, so we can see if it follows some of the other models or stays with a SELA hit which it has shown for several runs in a row.

[Steve]

36 Hours, GFS has the first low that ends up probably moving West across the Gulf and helps pinwheel "Nate" north is on the map. 4-5" of rain centered around Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm Beach from the first low.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=205

[Steve]

66 Hours Emerging off the North Central Yucatan. That's valid for 1am CDT on Saturday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

78 Hours has a West component still as the center is about due south of Grand Isle, LA and getting pulled up by the trough. That's Saturday about 11:00am CDT.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

GFS trending weaker at 84 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

[SunnyThoughts]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_14.png

[Javlin]

Yeah Steve the position in the GOM in a few days will tell alot.The further W of course the further W the strike their will be a bend back E I think in the end.I wonder also about the high Levi mentioned comes into play?That would not be good for intensification purposes

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS holding strong..Central Louisiana

[Steve]

GFS 90 hours and farther west. Looks like a Tropical Storm around Terrebonne Bay.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=147

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS and Euro are on 2 different planets with future Nate no doubt. GFS west of New Orleans and EURO east of Panama City. Wow.

[HurricaneBelle]

It's as if the 12Z GFS is saying to the NHC, "You think we're a western outlier? I'll show you a western outlier" with landfall now in south central LA, well west of NOLA.

[Steve]

Landfall between Houma and Morgan City low 990's between hours 90-96 (90 = Sunday 1am, 96 = Sunday 7am).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

[gulf701]

Being a first responder, I just spoke to our EOC to make sure they were up to speed and they were. Florida and county EOC's are already gearing up to deal with TD 16 or Nate.

[SunnyThoughts]

We probably won't get a good idea of landfall location until he's headed into the gulf, or intensification for that matter. By then it won't be long until landfall. Everybody along the gulf coast be prepared.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS LA landfall point is @400 miles W of the NHC landfall point near Panama City...

[Stormcenter]

As has been the case in the past many may times before with the NHC split the middle between the two (EURO & GFS)and that's your landfall.
If the EURO trends even 50 miles west than the GFS is definitely on to something. IMO

[Steve]

We probably won't get a good idea of landfall location until he's headed into the gulf, or intensification for that matter. By then it won't be long until landfall. Everybody along the gulf coast be prepared.

Luckily we're not dealing with MH potential here. I'm leaning toward still going to Texas this weekend and not really worrying about too much about it for now.

[Steve]

12z GFS LA landfall point is @400 miles W of the NHC landfall point near Panama City...

Within 4 days of landfall as well. That's insane. CMC is coming in much stronger than the GFS and has 993mb at the Yucatan rather than the North Gulf Coast. I could see CMC hitting Cat 2 on this run, but it's unclear where landfall will be yet.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=357

[mcheer23]

CMC had too much henny last night....

[RL3AO]

66 Hours Emerging off the North Central Yucatan. That's valid for 1am CDT on Saturday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

78 Hours has a West component still as the center is about due south of Grand Isle, LA and getting pulled up by the trough. That's Saturday about 11:00am CDT.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

GFS trending weaker at 84 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

I'm very skeptical that this makes landfall in the Yucatan. If it does, I think it will barely clip the NE tip of it.

[ronjon]

That track verbatim could really pile up the water in the forgotten coast/big bend area. A place like St George island and St Marks would really be vulnerable. Dennis (05) delivered a big water rise in that area despite landfalling well to the west. The evolution of the size of the windfield will be worth monitoring in subsequent days...in addition to track adjustments.

This from Hermine (Wikipedia):

In Dixie County, storm surge heights generally ranged from 8 to 9 ft (2.4 to 2.7 m) and peaked just inches below observations during the 1993 Storm of the Century. A total of 61 homes or businesses that were demolished, 540 sustained major damage, and 322 suffered minor impact.[59] Much of the damage in Levy County was also due to storm surge, with 6 to 8 ft (1.8 to 2.4 m) above average tides observed.[59] In Cedar Key, storm surge washed across the entire island. The only grocery store suffered wind and coastal flood damage, with food scattered on the floor. At a motel, water swept away air conditioners and left seaweed and mud inside. The storm caused an electrical fire that burnt down the clam processing plant. On Dock Street, which contains several restaurants on stilts, the decks and interiors of the restaurants were damaged.[66] The post office and city hall were severely damaged.[67] Storm damage in Cedar Key was estimated at over $10 million.[66] Additionally, over 40 homes and businesses in west Yankeetown were damaged by coastal flooding. Throughout Levy County, one structure was destroyed, 68 suffered major damage, and 51 others received minor impact.[59] Coastal areas of Citrus County suffered from significant flooding; 2,694 structures sustained damage, of which 531 suffered major damage. Total losses in the county reached $102 million.[68]